February 2025 Disco/Obs Thread

[MJO812]

[MJO812]

Cmc also coming in colder

[MJO812]

12 minutes ago, MJO812 said:

Cmc also coming in colder

Suppression thanks to the strong high 

[HIPPYVALLEY]

34 minutes ago, MJO812 said:

Suppression thanks to the strong high 

It could still end up congrats you to CT.

[weathafella]

8 minutes ago, HIPPYVALLEY said:

It could still end up congrats you to CT.

The way the current guidance is it is congrats no one as most of the precipitation is south of the boundary.  What a winter.

[HIPPYVALLEY]

40 minutes ago, weathafella said:

The way the current guidance is it is congrats no one as most of the precipitation is south of the boundary.  What a winter.

Yeah, we’ve had the ingredients laid out on the table, but the recipe has not come together yet. We both know there’s a big event in the pipeline over the next few weeks in SNE.

[HIPPYVALLEY]

Winter storms aside, I don't see any significant warm-ups for NE in the medium to long range.

[moneypitmike]

yawn.

[Damage In Tolland]

Stein usually always wins. No matter the season 

[dendrite]

5 hours ago, HIPPYVALLEY said:

Winter storms aside, I don't see any significant warm-ups for NE in the medium to long range.

What’s significant? Some in SNE are going to be saying it feels like spring on Wednesday. Mark it down. lol

[Snowcrazed71]

1 minute ago, dendrite said:

What’s significant? Some in SNE are going to be saying it feels like spring on Wednesday. Mark it down. lol

This Wednesday? Maybe this flew over my head? 

[MJO812]

6 hours ago, weathafella said:

The way the current guidance is it is congrats no one as most of the precipitation is south of the boundary.  What a winter.

Euro is the furthest North with the wave .

[CoastalWx]

5 hours ago, HIPPYVALLEY said:

Winter storms aside, I don't see any significant warm-ups for NE in the medium to long range.

Gfs has a nice warm up.

[CoastalWx]

29 minutes ago, Snowcrazed71 said:

This Wednesday? Maybe this flew over my head? 

Yeah you’ll be near 40

[dendrite]

Low 40s with sun will bring out the nape posts while I’m socked in with a miserable 19°. 

[Typhoon Tip]

13 minutes ago, dendrite said:

Low 40s with sun will bring out the nape posts while I’m socked in with a miserable 19°. 

If the clipper takes the GFS route, I personally doubt 40 on Wed N of the Pike and probably not HFD - PVD.  

I'm not even sure how to interpret the Euro .. it's almost like it's too strong with a primary to develop a low in CC Bay like the GFS does ...so it snows through 12z in a burst, then goes 37F with west wind that smells like rain but's really just rotted polar air for a few hours.  

[40/70 Benchmark]

I'm resigned to failure for another season at this point....however, I do see reason for optimism moving forward this decade.

[Snowcrazed71]

2 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

I'm resigned to failure for another season at this point....however, I do see reason for optimism moving forward this decade.

Well, we're bound to get a good winter in the next 10 years....lol

Don't beat yourself up. There's a lot of other things in play and even the best forecasts are getting knocked down

[Typhoon Tip]

3 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

I'm resigned to failure for another season at this point....however, I do see reason for optimism moving forward this decade.

That makes 1 of us

[dendrite]

15 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said:

If the clipper takes the GFS route, I personally doubt 40 on Wed N of the Pike and probably not HFD - PVD.  

I'm not even sure how to interpret the Euro .. it's almost like it's too strong with a primary to develop a low in CC Bay like the GFS does ...so it snows through 12z in a burst, then goes 37F with west wind that smells like rain but's really just rotted polar air for a few hours.  

My post was definitely directed toward SoP. 

[Typhoon Tip]

37 minutes ago, dendrite said:

My post was definitely directed toward SoP. 

Heh ...  didn't read back enough on that one.  I saw "...down there" and impulsively donkeyed.  haha

[RUNNAWAYICEBERG]

50 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

I'm resigned to failure for another season at this point....however, I do see reason for optimism moving forward this decade.

Maybe. We just don’t know what future winters will behave like but what we do know is…these winters suck. 

[Damage In Tolland]

Modeling has everything from a snow / ice storm to rain to suppression for weekend. Southern slider seems most likely with some type of low- medium event SNE

[Typhoon Tip]

It's emerging as transient.  Probably a day or two of warm sector,  less like a "synoptic heat burst"   Which can get pretty darn balmy in a pre diabetic era of CC, heh.  But it won't be a 5 days of 68 with two days near 80 like 2017.

It's more of a canonical EPO response across the continent. There's a pretty strong -EPO out there, and with the under pinning PNA in negative phase, the concurrence of those two index modes favors initial height falls down stream of the NE Pac/Alaskan region positive hgt anomaly to be the out west, first, version...  

Eventually the cold loading would spread throughout Canada and dip down in the NP ... prior to then coming east and that's when we get a plausible winter reclaiming a week ... perhaps the 7th thru the 13th estimate?   

As far as the GHD event in the foreground, the problem with this one can be identified well by the general scope. It is being ejected across the continent straight into a region that is loosing support for it ever being there. The onset of -PNA, is clue as well...  the region E is entering a negative interference.  It's why the S/W space is weakening as it comes.  It's no longer really even identifiable S of NS after exiting the upper m/a in some guidance renditions.   But there's a race between conserving, vs how fast it damps out to the point where it's nothing.  

 

[Kitz Craver]

It’s like when we were in those favorable years the inner weenie thought we had unlocked some hidden potential where now Southern New England was the snowiest place on the planet. We should have seen this coming, mama nature will always average out. Question is if we parse the data from our epic winters and view it with regards to averages at certain locations have we entered negative departures yet? Or are we still chipping away at those incredible seasonal snowfall totals with every ratter that we endure?

[Sey-Mour Snow]

3 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said:

It's emerging as transient.  Probably a day or two of warm sector,  less like a "synoptic heat burst"   Which can get pretty darn balmy in a pre diabetic era of CC, heh.  But it won't be a 5 days of 68 with two days near 80 like 2017.

It's more of a canonical EPO response across the continent. There's a pretty strong -EPO out there, and with the under pinning PNA in negative mode, the concurrence of those two index mode favors the height falls out west first, version...  

Eventually the cold loading would spread throughout Canada and dip down in the NP ... prior to then coming east and that's when we get a plausible winter reclaiming a week ... perhaps the 7th thru the 13th estimate?   

As far as the GHD event in the foreground, the problem with this one can be identified well by the general scope. It is that it is being ejected across the continent straight into a region that is loosing support for it ever being there. The onset of -PNA, is clue as well...  the region E is entering a negative interference.  It's why the S/W space is weakening as it comes.  It's no long really even identifiable S of NS after exiting the upper m/a.   But there's a race between conserving, vs how fast it damps out to the point where it's nothing.  

 

At this point let’s snow as much as possible until then. Then go 68 with a torrential rain pre cold front to wash the footprints of this disgusting winter away.. we tried, til next time.. 

[Spanks45]

3 minutes ago, Sey-Mour Snow said:

At this point let’s snow as much as possible until then. Then go 68 with a torrential rain pre cold front to wash the footprints of this disgusting winter away.. we tried, til next time.. 

Despite the lack of snowfall, I am quite impressed with how well our 3.5ish",  especially since most of it was fluff held up over the last week. I can't remember the last time we had ok snowcover last for a week, during the coldest time period of the year. Definitely felt and looked like winter when it was suppose to....just not a bunch of snow.

[Sey-Mour Snow]

Just now, Spanks45 said:

Despite the lack of snowfall, I am quite impressed with how well our 3.5ish",  especially since most of it was fluff held up over the last week. I can't remember the last time we had ok snowcover last for a week, during the coldest time period of the year. Definitely felt and looked like winter when it was suppose to....just not a bunch of snow.

Definitely, this combined with Christmas week were nice. I believe this is our third full week of snow cover this season. Just sucks that we had the bare minimum snow pack all three times 

[UnitedWx]

48 minutes ago, Kitz Craver said:

It’s like when we were in those favorable years the inner weenie thought we had unlocked some hidden potential where now Southern New England was the snowiest place on the planet. We should have seen this coming, mama nature will always average out. Question is if we parse the data from our epic winters and view it with regards to averages at certain locations have we entered negative departures yet? Or are we still chipping away at those incredible seasonal snowfall totals with every ratter that we endure?

I think many of us that are older did see this coming... weather we wanted to admit it or not. Some of the weenie issues here tell me that some are less than say 35-40 years old and grew up in a very, VERY spoiled era of winter weather in SNE

[michsnowfreak]

57 minutes ago, Spanks45 said:

Despite the lack of snowfall, I am quite impressed with how well our 3.5ish",  especially since most of it was fluff held up over the last week. I can't remember the last time we had ok snowcover last for a week, during the coldest time period of the year. Definitely felt and looked like winter when it was suppose to....just not a bunch of snow.

This should be the motto of this January in southeast Michigan as well. Been nothing exciting whatsoever, but lots of flakes, lots of cold, and persistent (albeit not deep at all) white ground.