February 2025 Disco/Obs Thread

[Typhoon Tip]

4 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

Happened in the Feb 28, 1995 ice storm. We had about 3 inches on the front end of that and then a ton of ZR on top of it. If anything, I think snow would make it worse by weighting down limbs more. ZR will accrete on snow just fine. 

I've watched this happen... The ice crusts the snow, you get 'micro avalanches' for lack of better phrase, with it tumbling off of the limbs when they start to sag. Probably is physically similar; snow underneath shears away when it can no longer support the weight on the top layer.  

[tunafish]

2 minutes ago, Chrisrotary12 said:

In that case.... bring me toucans to Maine!

Macaws to Maine?

Tropical bird references today: 

[Typhoon Tip]

The best icing for pure aesthetic value is when you get ZR proficiently accreting while there is dense pixie dust snow particles. The ice that coats everything gets opaque gray...  Man, it glows.  Man it glows.  Really cool looking ..

Buuuut, then you hear that unmistakable sound of timber failure and know that the ability to toast toast is next - the aesthetic wonder takes a back seat.

[40/70 Benchmark]

59 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said:

That's a failed capture in a missed phase scenario ... both of those are.  Yeah, I understand that it looks like the SPV is bullying and shoving away, but this is really not what is taking place.  

That is happening because there is not enough ridging over NW Canada to force the SPV fragment S in time - there is some, just not enough.

It's too bad too ( as is modeled... could change, sure, but probably won't ) because the hemisphere appears to be less compressed, and allowing for more of this kind of phasing in general.  In some of these recent runs the models pick up on that about half way to more proficiency.   

Here's an example of very proficient subsume phase, where a chunck of SPV careens south and ingests a S/stream sperm to produce the 2nd coming -

Feb 1978?

[Typhoon Tip]

4 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Feb 1978?

yeah, ...figured I give the idealize version.   I suspect 1888 was a very high proficient capture from the accounts I've read.   Man, I wish I was a millionaire so I could arrange for some god-line AI to recreate all the input into the initialization grids, and then fire off these pita flop super computers and turn 'em loose on that sumnabitch just for the ultimate d-drip experience.   Maybe even make a short film out of it.    I bet that would sell.   Man that would be fantastic to see that.   You could do a kind of interpolation repro of the grid and run the models as though, from 10 days out, 7 days out ...5...3  2   1    kerBOOOM

[Snowcrazed71]

So all this time I'm thinking we're talking about next week, but we're talking about this weekend storm threat. How is it looking for middle of next week. Is that storm still slated to look more wintry for the area?

[WxWatcher007]

5 minutes ago, tunafish said:

Macaws to Maine?

Tropical bird references today: 

Hornbills to Hartford?

Toucans to Taunton?

Parrots to the Pike?

Macaws to Maine?

Quetzals to Quebec City? 

[40/70 Benchmark]

1 minute ago, Typhoon Tip said:

yeah, ...figured I give the idealize version.   I suspect 1888 was a very high proficient capture from the accounts I've read.   Man, I wish I was a millionaire so I could arrange for AI to recreate all the input to the grids, and then fire off these pita flop super computers and turn 'em loose on that sumnabitch just for the ultimate d-drip experience.   Maybe even make a short film out of it.    I bet that would sell -

And

 

[Kitz Craver]

7 minutes ago, Snowcrazed71 said:

So all this time I'm thinking we're talking about next week, but we're talking about this weekend storm threat. How is it looking for middle of next week. Is that storm still slated to look more wintry for the area?

It was mentioned. Whiff at 12z

[Cyclone-68]

1 hour ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

EPS is a close whiff , too now....man, this hobby has become as draining as following the Red Sox offseason.

And just as underwhelming 

[WinterWolf]

13 minutes ago, Snowcrazed71 said:

So all this time I'm thinking we're talking about next week, but we're talking about this weekend storm threat. How is it looking for middle of next week. Is that storm still slated to look more wintry for the area?

Ya a whiff. But 9 days..so take it for what it’s worth. Which is almost nothing. 

[HIPPYVALLEY]

1 hour ago, ineedsnow said:

We jackpot for ice

I think we end up with more snow and the best ice is a little further south of RT 2 corridor. 

[UnitedWx]

1 hour ago, Typhoon Tip said:

we did it for 10 years for the most part, 1982 to 1991 so ... yeah, it can happen.

Don't remind me! The last few years has certainly started to feel like we're right back there EDIT: I say don't remind me, and I must bring the 80s period  up once a week the past couple months...

[Snowcrazed71]

26 minutes ago, Kitz Craver said:

It was mentioned. Whiff at 12z

Yeah I'm at work, so sometimes I get on here and miss some of the back conversation. I'd rather it show  pa whiff at this point... It's still 8 to 9 days out, so a lot will change. Thanks though

[Not me in VT]

What is the historical probability of a central New England ice storm? Are we statistically due? Or is this such a finite set up It's difficult to achieve other than on mount Tolland? 

[Prismshine Productions]

What is the historical probability of a central New England ice storm? Are we statistically due? Or is this such a finite set up It's difficult to achieve other than on mount Tolland? 

I want nothing to do with ice... Two bad experiences is enough for me

Sent from my SM-S156V using Tapatalk

[ineedsnow]

39 minutes ago, HIPPYVALLEY said:

I think we end up with more snow and the best ice is a little further south of RT 2 corridor. 

BOX thinking mostly snow here?

Saturday

Snow, mainly after 11am. High near 29. Calm wind becoming south 5 to 7 mph in the afternoon. Chance of precipitation is 80%.

Saturday Night

Snow. Low around 21. Light and variable wind. Chance of precipitation is 90%.

Sunday

Snow. High near 33. Northeast wind 6 to 9 mph. Chance of precipitation is 100%.

Sunday Night

Snow. Low around 8. Northwest wind 9 to 13 mph, with gusts as high as 24 mph. Chance of precipitation is 80%

[ORH_wxman]

55 minutes ago, Not me in VT said:

What is the historical probability of a central New England ice storm? Are we statistically due? Or is this such a finite set up It's difficult to achieve other than on mount Tolland? 

CNE just got blasted in 2008 (along with parts of SNE).....I'd think that corridor from dendrite in C NH up into CAD-land in Maine is due for a big one though....they were too far north for massive ice in 2008. That area obviously got hit in 1998, but thats working on over 25 years now. That one was obviously historic, but even just a pretty nasty half-inch radial ice storm is likely overdue there.

 

Paging @OceanStWxfor ice storm climo.

[ineedsnow]

Icon looking better 

[ineedsnow]

nice hit on Saturday

[ineedsnow]

18z Icon is way less amped

[JC-CT]

icon is

[ineedsnow]

that might be mostly snow here this weekend BOX FTW?

[dendrite]

2 minutes ago, ineedsnow said:

that might be mostly snow here this weekend BOX FTW?

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...

245 PM update...

Key Messages:

* Travel impacts likely this weekend, especially across interior
  where snow probably changes to a mix or even rain for a time. Less
  of an impact near coast where change to all rain is more likely.

[ORH_wxman]

4 minutes ago, dendrite said:

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...

245 PM update...

Key Messages:

* Travel impacts likely this weekend, especially across interior
  where snow probably changes to a mix or even rain for a time. Less
  of an impact near coast where change to all rain is more likely.

He's hitting all the weenie benchmarks recently....tracking every HRRR run for 1-2" of slush last week and then doing the ZFP/point-click fetish for a 5-6 day storm.

[The 4 Seasons]

Looking like a nice 1 to maybe 2" refresher tonight here if were lucky. Save the HRRR, every model pretty much clips us with an ~1". We're going  C-1 for far S CT locally up to 2" right along the beaches. 

[Kitz Craver]

1 minute ago, The 4 Seasons said:

Looking like a nice 1 to maybe 2" refresher tonight here if were lucky. Save the HRRR, every model pretty much clips us with an ~1". We're going  C-1 for far S CT locally up to 2" right along the beaches. 

Does it reach south central?

[dendrite]

20 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

CNE just got blasted in 2008 (along with parts of SNE).....I'd think that corridor from dendrite in C NH up into CAD-land in Maine is due for a big one though....they were too far north for massive ice in 2008. That area obviously got hit in 1998, but thats working on over 25 years now. That one was obviously historic, but even just a pretty nasty half-inch radial ice storm is likely overdue there.

 

Paging @OceanStWxfor ice storm climo.

2008 was my best icing event here, but we were definitely saved devastation from that early period of SNIP. I want to say there was a good one in SW NH in 86…March maybe?

[OceanStWx]

25 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

CNE just got blasted in 2008 (along with parts of SNE).....I'd think that corridor from dendrite in C NH up into CAD-land in Maine is due for a big one though....they were too far north for massive ice in 2008. That area obviously got hit in 1998, but thats working on over 25 years now. That one was obviously historic, but even just a pretty nasty half-inch radial ice storm is likely overdue there.

Paging @OceanStWxfor ice storm climo.

It's been very localized of late. 2008 in NH got it good, 2013 parts of the Kennebec Valley, last March on the southwest Maine coast.

That type of ice should be expected every 2-3 years.

The big boy regional events are more like 15+ years. There are definitely parts of Maine are ready for nature's tree trimming.

[ORH_wxman]

1 minute ago, dendrite said:

2008 was my best icing event here, but we were definitely saved devastation from that early period of SNIP. I want to say there was a good one in SW NH in 86…March maybe?

Feb '95 was pretty solid in S NH....not sure how far north the good stuff got. It wasn't historic, but a solid 3/8 to perhaps 1/2 radial ice in spots.

Also had a decent icer into S NH in Jan 2007....wanna say 1/15/07 it was. But again, not sure how far north it was contaminated by IP.