February 2025 Disco/Obs Thread

[cleetussnow]

4 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

Buckle Up.

Ben Dover

[40/70 Benchmark]

EPS is a close whiff , too now....man, this hobby has become as draining as following the Red Sox offseason.

[DomNH]

12z GEFS farther NW and warmer for the weekend. Let’s trend this to rains to Maine. A crusty 1-2’’ and toucans and not a crippling, holiday weekend ruining icer. 

[Damage In Tolland]

How much qpf has BDL and BOS totaled during this “soaking wet period “? Are both under 2” 

After whatever happens this weekend the PV looks to overwhelm again like Jan. 
Dry fall…

[ORH_wxman]

15 minutes ago, Kitz Craver said:

Mesolow won’t lock CT valley if it’s south of LI?

If it was coherent enough, it would, but it’s all about competing forces. If the mesolow is kind of weak (like on Euro) until it gets further north, then it won’t help as much in southern areas. 

[CoastalWx]

1 minute ago, Damage In Tolland said:

How much qpf has BDL and BOS totaled during this “soaking wet period “? Are both under 2” 

After whatever happens this weekend the PV looks to overwhelm again like Jan. 
Dry fall…

Don't worry, we'll make up for that in rain this weekend. 

[ineedsnow]

I like my spot for the zr threat.. but let's get it within 3 days

[Damage In Tolland]

Just now, ineedsnow said:

I like my spot for the zr threat.. but let's get it within 3 days

And we like ours 

[CoastalWx]

7 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

EPS is a close whiff , too now....man, this hobby has become as draining as following the Red Sox offseason.

But the pond ice......

[40/70 Benchmark]

5 minutes ago, DomNH said:

12z GEFS farther NW and warmer for the weekend. Let’s trend this to rains to Maine. A crusty 1-2’’ and toucans and not a crippling, holiday weekend ruining icer. 

I wonder if that would help the one next week come further north, if we trend that PV NW....

[Lava Rock]

6 minutes ago, DomNH said:

12z GEFS farther NW and warmer for the weekend. Let’s trend this to rains to Maine. A crusty 1-2’’ and toucans and not a crippling, holiday weekend ruining icer. 

Ok Kevin

[Typhoon Tip]

31 minutes ago, Spanks45 said:

The 12z Euro definitely has that look of whiff followed by another whiff as the PV gets too close....same story, different month/year

That's a failed capture in a missed phase scenario ... both of those are.  Yeah, I understand that it looks like the SPV is bullying and shoving away, but this is really not what is taking place.  

That is happening because there is not enough ridging over NW Canada to force the SPV fragment S in time - there is some, just not enough.

It's too bad too ( as is modeled... could change, sure, but probably won't ) because the hemisphere appears to be less compressed, and allowing for more of this kind of phasing in general.  In some of these recent runs the models pick up on that about half way to more proficiency.   

Here's an example of very proficient subsume phase, where a chunck of SPV careens south and ingests a S/stream sperm to produce the 2nd coming -

[WinterWolf]

14 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

EPS is a close whiff , too now....man, this hobby has become as draining as following the Red Sox offseason.

Ehh..one is 9 days out, the other is 11 or 12.  I mean it’s on the board..at this range that’s really all that matters.  Both are clown range to be honest.  

[ROOSTA]

8 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said:

That's a failed capture in a missed phase scenario ... both of those are.  Yeah, I understand that it looks like the SPV is bullying and shoving away, but this is really not what is taking place.  

That is happening because there is not enough ridging over NW Canada to force the SPV fragment S in time - there is some, just not enough.

It's too bad too ( as is modeled... could change, sure, but probably won't ) because the hemisphere appears to be less compressed, and allowing for more of this kind of phasing in general.  In some of these recent runs the models pick up on that about half way to more proficiency.   

Here's an example of very proficient subsume phase, where a chunck of SPV careens south and ingests a S/stream sperm to produce the 2nd coming -

Blast from the past!
Love them old daily weather maps. Had them delivered (Dept. of Commerce) for years, some might still be in the basement of the homestead in Braintree Ma. 

[George001]

We aren’t actually going to go whiff cutter cutter whiff are we? If that happens I’m out on tracking the rest of winter. At that point, just gotta laugh at the absurdity of the situation and acknowledge it’s not our year. 

[ORH_wxman]

EPS def has plenty of Phil members for icing over interior for this weekend  (and actually still has nearly 6” of snow in the mean for the pike region). Unlike the 06z run, the EPS is a bit SE of the OP run. 

[Typhoon Tip]

3 minutes ago, George001 said:

We aren’t actually going to go whiff cutter cutter whiff are we? If that happens I’m out on tracking the rest of winter. At that point, just gotta laugh at the absurdity of the situation and acknowledge it’s not our year. 

we did it for 10 years for the most part, 1982 to 1991 so ... yeah, it can happen.

[powderfreak]

Just now, ORH_wxman said:

EPS def has plenty of Phil members for icing over interior for this weekend  (and actually still has nearly 6” of snow in the mean for the pike region). Unlike the 06z run, the EPS is a bit SE of the OP run. 

Thats some ice in Berks and ORH hills.

[ineedsnow]

Just now, powderfreak said:

Thats some ice in Berks and ORH hills.

We jackpot for ice

[cleetussnow]

7 minutes ago, George001 said:

We aren’t actually going to go whiff cutter cutter whiff are we? If that happens I’m out on tracking the rest of winter. At that point, just gotta laugh at the absurdity of the situation and acknowledge it’s not our year. 

Why not?  But everyone looking forward to a day 10 snow storm on one model are bound to be let down anyway. its nape season .  Get on with it. 

[WxWatcher007]

3 minutes ago, cleetussnow said:

Why not?  But everyone looking forward to a 10 snow storm on one model are bound to be let down anyway. its nape season anyway.  Get on with it. M

What happened to living a hopeful life?    

[cleetussnow]

2 minutes ago, WxWatcher007 said:

What happened to living a hopeful life?    

I got a B- winter going here.  Better than the last 2, which is already more than I could hope for.  

[Chrisrotary12]

12 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

EPS def has plenty of Phil members for icing over interior for this weekend  (and actually still has nearly 6” of snow in the mean for the pike region). Unlike the 06z run, the EPS is a bit SE of the OP run. 

If half an inch of freezing rain falls on 5" of snow.... is it actually an ice storm or is it just heavy wet snow?

[WinterWolf]

I really wouldn’t be worried about two potentials in clown range that look like a whiff?  We have something that’s 4 days out, that we can’t figure out where it’s going, or what it’s doing yet?   Those could completely disappear on the next couple runs..in fact it wouldn’t be surprising.  

[ORH_wxman]

5 minutes ago, Chrisrotary12 said:

If half an inch of freezing rain falls on 5" of snow.... is it actually an ice storm or is it just heavy wet snow?

We should test it out and see if you think half an inch of ice all over everything classifies as an ice storm if there’s snow prior to it. 

[ORH_wxman]

3 minutes ago, WinterWolf said:

I really wouldn’t be worried about two potentials in clown range that look like a whiff?  We have something that’s 4 days out, that we can’t figure out where it’s going, or what it’s doing yet?   Those could completely disappear on the next couple runs..in fact it wouldn’t be surprising.  

You can’t tell people not to worry about it if everyone is actively tracking it. Otherwise we wouldn’t even bother to look beyond D7. 
 

It might come back…or it could just keep trending SE into zero because the PV overwhelmed it. There’s a reason it’s mostly useless to track this far out. 

[Typhoon Tip]

21 minutes ago, WinterWolf said:

I really wouldn’t be worried about two potentials in clown range that look like a whiff?  We have something that’s 4 days out, that we can’t figure out where it’s going, or what it’s doing yet?   Those could completely disappear on the next couple runs..in fact it wouldn’t be surprising.  

You must be new to a crowd that's inimically enslaved to the manic demon of the d-drip addiction .. hahaha

No but I think what part of that is is just being jaded by what many perceive as bad luck and lack of material results for any investment at all, whether long term or short term.   Will's really right about that - we've been stuck in a kind of fractal era where all results are lower than modeled. 

Altho, I think part of that is systemic bias in the guidance machinery ( all sources) in general, to be too amplified.   But more than just that, there's no consistency in the models, either.  Some of that is also human failing in having inappropriate expectations -sure.

So folks are little reactionary because of all that.  Panacea would be a reasonably well behaved big dawg, one allowing for "normal" model performance wiggles but by and large, handled on into short term whence it's no doubt.   We've not seen that in many years frankly.   All wiggles have been neg headers... and they win - eventually the audience is going to storm the citadel

[DomNH]

19 minutes ago, Chrisrotary12 said:

If half an inch of freezing rain falls on 5" of snow.... is it actually an ice storm or is it just heavy wet snow?

I do wonder how efficiently ice would accrete on snow-covered branches and power lines. I can’t recall significant QPF as ZR after a few inches of snow.

I see advisory snow + advisory ice as the absolute worst case scenario here. Either give me a foot or 1.5’’ of QPF all ZR. Or rain.

[ORH_wxman]

Just now, DomNH said:

I do wonder how efficiently ice would accrete on snow-covered branches and power lines. I can’t recall significant QPF as ZR after a few inches of snow.

Happened in the Feb 28, 1995 ice storm. We had about 3 inches on the front end of that and then a ton of ZR on top of it. If anything, I think snow would make it worse by weighting down limbs more. ZR will accrete on snow just fine. 

[Chrisrotary12]

2 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

Happened in the Feb 28, 1995 ice storm. We had about 3 inches on the front end of that and then a ton of ZR on top of it. If anything, I think snow would make it worse by weighting down limbs more. ZR will accrete on snow just fine. 

In that case.... bring me toucans to Maine!