February 2025 Disco/Obs Thread

[ORH_wxman]

Just now, Damage In Tolland said:

I get that. But the idea is 6z was colder . 12z colder again . Trends not done 

06z was colder at the height of the storm. Not by a ton but it was a bit colder. But the 12z run did have a better shot of snow on the front end than 06z. 

[WinterWolf]

How did the 20th big dog look ? Is it gone? 

[dryslot]

What a mess we have up here with that 12z Euro run verbatim.

[40/70 Benchmark]

Then it whiffs with the big dog potential. lol

[dryslot]

Just now, WinterWolf said:

How did the 20th big dog look ? Is it gone? 

Going to hit the Flemish Cap.

[WinterWolf]

Just now, ORH_wxman said:

06z was colder at the height of the storm. Not by a ton but it was a bit colder. But the 12z run did have a better shot of snow on the front end than 06z. 

Sounds different pieces are doing different things each run..

[Damage In Tolland]

This seems to be following the tenor of every other event this winter. Weakest and colder each run. I’d bet we see it continue at 18 and 00z

[ORH_wxman]

1 minute ago, WinterWolf said:

How did the 20th big dog look ? Is it gone? 

Wide right. Close but it’s a whiff this run. OP run not useful though for 200+ hour threats. 

[WinterWolf]

Just now, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Then it whiffs with the big dog potential. lol

 

Just now, dryslot said:

Going to hit the Flemish Cap.

As I said earlier..I was ready for it to be lost  soon. 12z made me right. 

[WinterWolf]

2 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

Wide right. Close but it’s a whiff this run. OP run not useful though for 200+ hour threats. 

Ya, let’s see what the Ensembles show?  How were the GEFS with the 20th? 

[ineedsnow]

I wish this was a couple days away.. hopefully it holds

[40/70 Benchmark]

2 minutes ago, WinterWolf said:

 

As I said earlier..I was ready for it to be lost  soon. 12z made me right. 

Only useful exercise at this range is to compare ens mean.

[WinterWolf]

Just now, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Only useful exercise at this range is to compare ens mean.

Agreed. How were the GEFS at 12z…did they still show it? 

[40/70 Benchmark]

Just now, WinterWolf said:

Agreed. How were the GEFS at 12z…did they still show it? 

GEFS have been a close brush for a couple of runs.

[CoastalWx]

The FU Ensemble has strong agreement. There is a large cluster right over my asshole. It's been on fire all winter.

[dryslot]

A bit east of the OP up here which is good.

[RUNNAWAYICEBERG]

2 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

The FU Ensemble has strong agreement. There is a large cluster right in my asshole which has been on fire all winter. Alot of visits to Rt2 rest stops.

 

[Kitz Craver]

26 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

Had a low further NW than 00z. Ahead of it was colder, but verbatim it's 34F rain while the grid goes down 35 miles north.

So no 3-6” then ptype change verbatim SOP?

[ORH_wxman]

Just now, Kitz Craver said:

So no 3-6” then ptype change verbatim SOP?

No, the snow is accurate. CT actually does pretty well on the front end for snow. It’s just a quick transition through sleet/ZR to rain after the initial snow while NOP keeps the ZR longer…aided by cold tuck too on mesolow. 

[CoastalWx]

1 minute ago, Kitz Craver said:

So no 3-6” then ptype change verbatim SOP?

Like 3-5.  

[Spanks45]

The 12z Euro definitely has that look of whiff followed by another whiff as the PV gets too close....same story, different month/year

[mahk_webstah]

10 minutes ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said:

 

Tap tap tap

[Kitz Craver]

2 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

No, the snow is accurate. CT actually does pretty well on the front end for snow. It’s just a quick transition through sleet/ZR to rain after the initial snow while NOP keeps the ZR longer…aided by cold tuck too on mesolow. 

Mesolow won’t lock CT valley if it’s south of LI?

[MJOatleast7]

27 minutes ago, dryslot said:

Going to hit the Flemish Cap.

Hey, why not Portugal while we're at it?
 

[HIPPYVALLEY]

2 minutes ago, Kitz Craver said:

Mesolow won’t lock CT valley if it’s south of LI?

It will definitely lock my part of the valley.

[Typhoon Tip]

31 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Then it whiffs with the big dog potential. lol

again 2 days after that, too - almost carbon copy na na na-na na misses

[40/70 Benchmark]

7 minutes ago, Spanks45 said:

The 12z Euro definitely has that look of whiff followed by another whiff as the PV gets too close....same story, different month/year

That would be an absolutely exceptional seasonal display of anal sodomy.

[40/70 Benchmark]

Maybe @brooklynwx99can post a movie to change the vibe?

[brooklynwx99]

2 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Maybe @brooklynwx99can post a movie to chnage the vibe?

nah i could go without being the scapegoat for less frozen water falling from the sky. i'm good

[CoastalWx]

5 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

That would be an absolutely exceptional seasonal display of anal sodomy.

Buckle Up.