February 2025 Disco/Obs Thread

[Kitz Craver]

3 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

Euro is trash. Will capitulate to GFS yet again . This fast flow keeps shearing these out as we get closer. It’s happened all winter . Name one that hasn’t. Weaker wave one will force wave two south 

I don’t know if this is about shearing as much as it is about the PV lobe and its position/press

[ORH_wxman]

Just now, CoastalWx said:

Synoptics argue west and GFS and Canadian came in warmer. I don't know.

PV shifting west is bad so I think we’re screwed unless it comes back east a little. The 50/50 low has definitely trended stronger today though so that tries to offset it some…so there’s potential to get this pretty cold if PV can revert back to 00z. 

[CoastalWx]

Just now, Kitz Craver said:

I don’t know if this is about shearing as much as it is about the PV lobe and its position/press

Yeah this is different. Better synoptic forcing from a stronger s/w.

[CoastalWx]

4 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

PV shifting west is bad so I think we’re screwed unless it comes back east a little. The 50/50 low has definitely trended stronger today though so that tries to offset it some…so there’s potential to get this pretty cold if PV can revert back to 00z. 

I thought it had a chance with that initial area of snow, but then at 500 you could see that it wasn't exactly what I was looking for. 

[dryslot]

Congrats SNE on the grid failure.

 

[JC-CT]

Just now, dryslot said:

Congrats SNE on the grid failure.

 

sell

[ineedsnow]

Just now, dryslot said:

Congrats SNE on the grid failure.

 

LFG!! 

[ineedsnow]

if its still there in a couple days we can get excited

[dryslot]

1 minute ago, JC-CT said:

sell

 

1 minute ago, ineedsnow said:

LFG!! 

lol

[ROOSTA]

DIT just passed out; his ICE fantasy fulfilled.
Days if not months of suffrage.  

[ineedsnow]

temps in the low to mid 20s would definitely help ice things up quick I would think with less runoff

[JC-CT]

5 minutes ago, dryslot said:

 

lol

he's basically CNE to me tbh

[UnitedWx]

8 minutes ago, dryslot said:

Congrats SNE on the grid failure.

 

Jackpot over my house in Westfield... to quote Mr. furniture "I doubt it!" At least I have a new generator

[UnitedWx]

4 minutes ago, ROOSTA said:

DIT just passed out; his ICE fantasy fulfilled.
Days if not months of suffrage.  

He's just on the jungle website ordering more lotion...

[ineedsnow]

seems like we wouldn't warm up after it either..

[Kitz Craver]

12 minutes ago, ineedsnow said:

seems like we wouldn't warm up after it either..

Yeah meso low south of LI will keep it locked, IF that happens

[ORH_wxman]

Euro 

 Over interior. Esp ORH county and into S NH but it’s further south for a while before eventually warming SOP. 

[WxWatcher007]

Time for a thread?

[ineedsnow]

2 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

Euro 

 Over interior. Esp ORH county and into S NH but it’s further south for a while before eventually warming SOP. 

we pray!! 

[ORH_wxman]

Euro has a decent shot of snow prior to ptype changes. Like 3-6” for most of SNE. 

[ineedsnow]

3 to 6 before we go over to a ice storm  we lock in!

[40/70 Benchmark]

5 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

Euro 

 Over interior. Esp ORH county and into S NH but it’s further south for a while before eventually warming SOP. 

Hopefully I manage more sleet.

[Damage In Tolland]

7 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

Euro 

 Over interior. Esp ORH county and into S NH but it’s further south for a while before eventually warming SOP. 

Here it come . The capitulate begins 

[ORH_wxman]

Just now, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Hopefully I manage more sleet.

 Need it to cool a bit for more sleet…warms too much aloft for sleet. Want to keep that warm layer +3 or colder. Euro actually flips you to rain and then back to moderate ZR as you cold tuck…good location there for any cold tucking (really caused a lot of ZR damage back in 2008 in Essex county)

[CoastalWx]

Just now, Damage In Tolland said:

Here it come . The capitulate begins 

Had a low further NW than 00z. Ahead of it was colder, but verbatim it's 34F rain while the grid goes down 35 miles north.

[40/70 Benchmark]

1 minute ago, ORH_wxman said:

 Need it to cool a bit for more sleet…warms too much aloft for sleet. Want to keep that warm layer +3 or colder. Euro actually flips you to rain and then back to moderate ZR as you cold tuck…good location there for any cold tucking (really caused a lot of ZR damage back in 2008 in Essex county)

 

My cousin lived in Dracut for 2008 and I remembered she had to stay with my mom and I in Wilmington for several days afterwards....power is out for a long time. It was awful.

[Damage In Tolland]

Just now, CoastalWx said:

Had a low further NW than 00z. Ahead of it was colder, but verbatim it's 34F rain while the grid goes down 35 miles north.

I get that. But the idea is 6z was colder . 12z colder again . Trends not done 

[ORH_wxman]

1 minute ago, Damage In Tolland said:

Here it come . The capitulate begins 

Still close to being parakeets…esp south of pike. I’d like to see a more subtle shift south/east with PV

[CoastalWx]

Just now, Damage In Tolland said:

I get that. But the idea is 6z was colder . 12z colder again . Trends not done 

It wasn't really. You want more of a shift SE with that PV.

[DJln491]

snow>ice>torch and rain>temps crash everything freezes