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February 2025 Disco/Obs Thread


Torch Tiger
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3 minutes ago, George001 said:

I’ll believe it when I see the snow falling. This keeps happening, the models show big snows a week out and then the rug pull happens in the short range. Can’t even trust it even 1 day out, the gfs and euro had me getting a fairly significant storm last time and I only got a minor snowfall.

They had 6-8, you got what…5?   I think if that’s correct your expectations need some work.  Maybe I’m misremembering but this was always a fast quick hitting system and we got that albeit a bit shorter.

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27 minutes ago, weathafella said:

They had 6-8, you got what…5?   I think if that’s correct your expectations need some work.  Maybe I’m misremembering but this was always a fast quick hitting system and we got that albeit a bit shorter.

Yeah outside of a rogue run or two, I don’t recall models showing a huge event last Sunday.

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2 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

Yeah outside of a rogue run or two, I don’t recall models showing a huge event last Sunday.

GFs had 8-12” several runs in a row around D3 but euro never bit except the one rogue 12z run (maybe 1.5 runs if you include that 06z run for eastern areas)…but yeah, if you were drinking GFS kool-aid while euro was not biting, then that’s on you. :lol:

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36 minutes ago, George001 said:

I’ll believe it when I see the snow falling. This keeps happening, the models show big snows a week out and then the rug pull happens in the short range. Can’t even trust it even 1 day out, the gfs and euro had me getting a fairly significant storm last time and I only got a minor snowfall.

I don't know, there hasn't been too many of them compared to other years, as long as we get something out of it, doesn't have to be two feet but a major snow storm would make us happy.

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2 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

GFs had 8-12” several runs in a row around D3 but euro never bit except the one rogue 12z run (maybe 1.5 runs if you include that 06z run for eastern areas)…but yeah, if you were drinking GFS kool-aid while euro was not biting, then that’s on you. :lol:

Yeah maybe like day 3-4,  but even then the flags were out with the model discrepancies. 

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44 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

GFs had 8-12” several runs in a row around D3 but euro never bit except the one rogue 12z run (maybe 1.5 runs if you include that 06z run for eastern areas)…but yeah, if you were drinking GFS kool-aid while euro was not biting, then that’s on you. :lol:

Yeah can’t really argue with that, the NWS and none of the TV mets bought it. My weather app was saying 5-6 inches of snow for me starting from 3 days out and stayed in that range. Well, the gfs is doing it again giving my area 2 feet of snow a week out and this time I’m not buying it. 

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20 minutes ago, Prismshine Productions said:

one thing that I recall from the last system is how suppressed the Euro and EPS both were before they came late to the party and moved NW

This is true. The GFS was about as Northwest as the guidance went and the Euro slowly shifted north. In the end they kind of met in the middle, however in some ways it seemed the GFS had more of the right idea sooner

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27 minutes ago, UnitedWx said:

This is true. The GFS was about as Northwest as the guidance went and the Euro slowly shifted north. In the end they kind of met in the middle, however in some ways it seemed the GFS had more of the right idea sooner

I guess I'd rather see it here than well north of us. There's plenty of time to shift. It could easily shift back North again, but this is better than what it originally was showing. We track. We hope 

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3 hours ago, George001 said:

Yeah can’t really argue with that, the NWS and none of the TV mets bought it. My weather app was saying 5-6 inches of snow for me starting from 3 days out and stayed in that range. Well, the gfs is doing it again giving my area 2 feet of snow a week out and this time I’m not buying it. 

Eric Fisher bought it...he was going 10-14".

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maybe the recon flight out west will help with some extra data....

AF309 Unassigned Mission
Type: Unknown  |  Status: En Route

As of 22:24 UTC Jan 26, 2025:

Aircraft Position: 36.42°N 127.25°W
Bearing: 270° at 387 kt
Altitude: 9481 gpm
Peak 10-second Wind: 62 kt at 4°
Extrapolated Sea-level Pressure: N/A
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1 hour ago, ineedsnow said:

maybe the recon flight out west will help with some extra data....

AF309 Unassigned Mission
Type: Unknown  |  Status: En Route

As of 22:24 UTC Jan 26, 2025:

Aircraft Position: 36.42°N 127.25°W
Bearing: 270° at 387 kt
Altitude: 9481 gpm
Peak 10-second Wind: 62 kt at 4°
Extrapolated Sea-level Pressure: N/A

What are they looking for, a drone swarm?

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