February 2025 Disco/Obs Thread

[40/70 Benchmark]

7 hours ago, Torch Tiger said:

not a bad run, 12-18 hour snower D10 but it doesn't close of and stall, which blows.  Everything's moving so fast

The speed of movement is so overrated in terms of snowfall...its much more significant with respect to tidal issues. 12-18 hours is plenty if you are in the right spot beneath stellar dynamics. I'll recover from missing out on an extra 6 hours of shredded returns that amounts to 2-3".

[40/70 Benchmark]

1 hour ago, Kitz Craver said:

Of course it’s in clown range, we have seen so many faux KU’s in the extended

I think its coming.

[ineedsnow]

2 minutes ago, Kitz Craver said:

Way less accretion if it’s pouring though, lol

True but still fun to look at.. being 24. 25 degrees would make it easier I would think though.. Fram estimate but probably still high

[40/70 Benchmark]

1 hour ago, CoastalWx said:

At least there is multi ensemble support anyways.

There should be....that is when the tropics stop resisting what is going on at the pole and constructively interfere.

[40/70 Benchmark]

42 minutes ago, dendrite said:

C NH and SW ME get the cold title this morning

I was down to 1.9

[40/70 Benchmark]

39 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

EPS did have more members south. Mean snowfall jumped too…around 6” for pike region. Fingers crossed we can press that a touch more south. 

That has always had the look of a more bonafide SWFE to me......unlike these episodic deposits of 1-2" of anal mist from the depth of ma nature's crack that come at the most inopportune times.

This weekend looks like a December 2007 type deal.

[Kitz Craver]

7 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

I think its coming.

One time!

[Kitz Craver]

1 minute ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

That has always had the look of a more bonafide SWFE to me......unlike these episodic deposits of 1-2" of anal mist from the depth of ma nature's crack that come at the most inopportune times.

This weekend looks like a December 2007 type deal.

“Anal Mist” LMFAO

[40/70 Benchmark]

Just now, Kitz Craver said:

“Anal Mist” LMFAO

They always seem to come at obnoxious times.....ugh, I can't stand it. Just piss off.

[ORH_wxman]

4 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

That has always had the look of a more bonafide SWFE to me......unlike these episodic deposits of 1-2" of anal mist from the depth of ma nature's crack that come at the most inopportune times.

This weekend looks like a December 2007 type deal.

Yeah it could end up as a nice event but we still need it south a bit more. PV still being a bit obnoxious but at least we’ve trended it better overnight. Need another trend at 12z though or I think it’s gonna be tough. Can’t reverse the overnight trends. 

[40/70 Benchmark]

25 minutes ago, moneypitmike said:

Too bad we cant' set up with one of those cold drains down from ME/NH.

At least my family isn't home right now, if there were ever a time to lose power, I'd pick now.

[40/70 Benchmark]

1 minute ago, ORH_wxman said:

Yeah it could end up as a nice event but we still need it south a bit more. PV still being a bit obnoxious but at least we’ve trended it better overnight. Need another trend at 12z though or I think it’s gonna be tough. Can’t reverse the overnight trends. 

Yea, I could def. see it ending up ugly, too....but hopefully we grab like several inches. I'm okay with a messy event like that on the weekend.....bring it.

[WinterWolf]

10 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

I think its coming.

There was one earlier in the season…where we thought that too, and she went poof once inside of 6-7 days.  Euro had it for like one to two runs, but GFS had it for like 4-5 runs. Don’t think it had the tele support..think it got squashed south. 

[40/70 Benchmark]

2 minutes ago, WinterWolf said:

There was one earlier in the season…where we thought that too, and she went poof once inside of 6-7 days.  Euro had it for like one to two runs, but GFS had it for like 4-5 runs. Don’t think it had the tele support..think it got squashed south. 

Yes, Jan 11.  I was wrong about that. I couldn't believe the trends on that reversed, but like I said yesterday, that is less likely later in the season. Doesn't mean it can't happen, but a very suppressed strom track like that is less likely to materialize.

[Damage In Tolland]

38 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

That’s a pretty decent icer outside of 495 on 06z euro. ORH never gets above freezing. 

33 and rain south of there?

[Damage In Tolland]

12 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

At least my family isn't home right now, if there were ever a time to lose power, I'd pick now.

Now you’re understanding it! Damage 

[dryslot]

7:00 am

CITY           SKY/WX    TMP DP  RH WIND       PRES   REMARKS

LEWISTONAUBURN CLEAR    -10 -15  78 CALM      30.33F

[RUNNAWAYICEBERG]

Just have to hold it right there for ten days. No problem. 

[ORH_wxman]

12 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

33 and rain south of there?

Close for you. ORH stays in the 27-29F range so you might be cold enough that run. Doesn’t matter at this time lead yet though. 

[40/70 Benchmark]

8 minutes ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said:

Just have to hold it right there for ten days. No problem. 

Don't be suprised if it does.

[40/70 Benchmark]

Startlingly good continuity with 00z, actually.

[tavwtby]

gfs really close to a phased event after the 20th, but extreme clown range, would be nice to have a capture and stall cutoff just dumping for a couple days though, if any period is going to deliver it'll be from the 20th to the ides of March it seems

[Typhoon Tip]

What interests me about the 20th emergence is that it's taking place in a modeled relaxation of the compression/speed anomalies. 

Short version, the relaxation is allowing more storm kinematics to be conserved at the smaller scales - which means better/more efficient/better timed field interactions --> storm production and power.   ... Another way to look at it is the large scale flow slowing is less of a baked in negative interference. 

Long version, the -EPO is neutralized in the days leading, and though in theory this would stem our cold supply ... this is actually a well timed for the d(rotting) factor.  I wouldn't want to wait on that much longer in an era that proves turning off cold supply modulates us on the + side of marginal quite quickly.  Having a cryosphere throughout SE Canada and in our backyards is factorable in the environmental noise.  

The higher latitude on going -AO is then exerting a west motion through the lower Ferrel latitudes ( roughly along 55 to 70 N band).  From 50 thousand feet, this conceptually sets up 40 N precarious for phasing.  But, doing so with a relaxed gradient is far more likely to both succeed and produce a bigger event, then if this phasing potential is heightened while the flow along 40 N is compressed and fast. 

You can see these SPV fragments moving SW through lower Canada on the model cinemas, leading durig the 15th and the 19th, prior to the 16th but more importantly the 20th development.   This is happening as the compression is easing and the flow is slowly opening up. The 20th is the less inhibited of the two, and that's why we see the the operational GFS with an unobstructed fully realizing S/stream bomb on the 06z, and the Euros multi contoured phased result in it's rendition for the 20th.  The GGEM is also showing this cyclonic rotation of SPV parcels into the backside of S/stream S/W ... but it's holding onto the compression longer, which speeds the S/stream S/W movement through the field and that leads to more of the pacing/spatial temporal bipass issues. Who's worried about the GGEM at D 9 though. 

 

 

 

[CoastalWx]

That gfs storm next week pelts  past the pike lol. Not that it matters, but 65mph winds and pellets would be interesting.

[RUNNAWAYICEBERG]

10 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Don't be suprised if it does.

Cool. Start a thread. Can start at 18-24” and adjust up inside d5.
 

[SJonesWX]

7 hours ago, WinterWolf said:

Now you sound even more silly.  And 17 days is close to 3 weeks…and the post you were replying to said a 3 week whoop ass window.  
 

And too bad Mother Nature doesn’t care about some man made date that is just used for tidy record keeping.  Nice try though. 

Dude, you said you had blocked the kitty cat. BLOCK HIM and stop replying. the kitty feeds on your replies.

[CoastalWx]

4 minutes ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said:

Cool. Start a thread. Can start at 18-24” and adjust up inside d5.
 

I get the support, but I’ll wait until Sunday to entertain it. 

[CoastalWx]

Let’s just hope we can tick more south. Gfs was actually cold tuck icy here. It won’t be all snow, but I could do without pelicans to Portland Maine like the 00z euro has. 

[40/70 Benchmark]

29 minutes ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said:

Cool. Start a thread. Can start at 18-24” and adjust up inside d5.
 

I am as large of a fan of sarcasm as anyone, but I explained on Sunday in pretty vivid detail why there is very strong support for this.

[RUNNAWAYICEBERG]

2 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

I get the support, but I’ll wait until Sunday to entertain it. 

Ens look great. I get it. Not falling for it again though until we get inside d5.