February 2025 Disco/Obs Thread

[WinterWolf]

9 minutes ago, Kitz Craver said:

Right. My point was, high dew points and thus the corresponding temperatures I suppose eat snow pack. Not the correlation of relative humidity and temperature to achieve dew point.

Understood.  But the temps have to be at least that for those dew points to happen.  But I get it. 

[dendrite]

26 minutes ago, WinterWolf said:

Exactly.  I think those who think it’s nape season should go and lay out on their decks in banana hammocks and oil, and see how red they get. Please report back. 

It’s close to burn season for me…couple more weeks.

[Snowcrazed71]

1 hour ago, 78Blizzard said:

Both the Euro and the GFS 12z runs paint a cold 2 weeks ahead, well below normal, sun angle or not.

It's funny you should say this. I'm sure some of you are familiar with that. Tri-State weather always puts out forecasts on Facebook. They posted today's 12z Euro snow output for the next two weeks and it paints a pretty snowy picture. Not sure what that means, but it seems like a flip back again where we're saying the last couple of days. I'm just going to wait and see. 

It's so tough because we do use the models to give us an idea what's going to happen, but there's been such a switch back and forth over the last few weeks that it gets hard to know what's going to really be the final outcome. Time will tell I guess

[CoastalWx]

Napeolodeon. 

[mahk_webstah]

I’ve tempered my expectations for the weekend, but still envision scenario of more than 6 inches of snow probably ending as sleet or freezing rain.  
 

won’t have my fantasized 30 inch snowpack by Monday but I might by next weekend.  And by next weekend, perhaps that snowpacked extends all the way down through southern New England and the central and northern mid Atlantic.

sometimes these types of situations tick back towards what they were originally showing, and it wouldn’t surprise me if we see a bit of that over the next couple of days

[H2Otown_WX]

2 hours ago, SJonesWX said:

i've gotten >30" since 1/11, so it has been fairly decent up here

I know who it is, but don't give a rats ass about him or his location. point is, this is the fargin New England forum, and I'd venture to guess that 99.999999999999999999999999999999% of the New Englanders don't give a fuck if he gets snow. MBY or bust

I know you know who it is, I just felt like calling him an obscene name because he sucks

[ORH_wxman]

GFS is gonna be south of 12z with weekend. PV pressed a bit more this run. 

[RUNNAWAYICEBERG]

A colder rain for SoP. I don’t think the anal snows will work out once the low passes either.

[HoarfrostHubb]

I would take that GFS run here.   
 

next

[George001]

2 minutes ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said:

A colder rain for SoP. I don’t think the anal snows will work out once the low passes either.

The bigger issue for me is where the Euro is. Gfs has been all over the place with this one while the Euro has been locked in on a more northern track for several cycles.

[RUNNAWAYICEBERG]

4 minutes ago, George001 said:

The bigger issue for me is where the Euro is. Gfs has been all over the place with this one while the Euro has been locked in on a more northern track for several cycles.

Yup. Gfs been too snowy all winter as well. Fade it. 

[RUNNAWAYICEBERG]

Great. Here comes to 2/20 at h5. We’ll waste another 7 days tracking this before the hadley cell devours it.

[Damage In Tolland]

I would take that icestorm 

[Hoth]

2 minutes ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said:

Yup. Gfs been too snowy all winter as well. Fade it. 

Fade into dews like Mazzy freaking Star. 

[Chrisrotary12]

I was just thinking, do you all remember when vorts would bowling ball across the country? Or when they’d wrap up and occlude off the east coast. Feels like forever. 

[radarman]

15 minutes ago, Chrisrotary12 said:

I was just thinking, do you all remember when vorts would bowling ball across the country? Or when they’d wrap up and occlude off the east coast. Feels like forever. 

We've checked off the remember when we used to get clippers and remember when we used to get nickel and dime events this year.  Maybe in March or next year we bowl.

[WxWatcher007]

18 minutes ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said:

Great. Here comes to 2/20 at h5. We’ll waste another 7 days tracking this before the hadley cell devours it.

Welcome back into the darkness, friend.

It was always a trap.

[CoastalWx]

21 minutes ago, Chrisrotary12 said:

I was just thinking, do you all remember when vorts would bowling ball across the country? Or when they’d wrap up and occlude off the east coast. Feels like forever. 

Tip’s Hadley cell ruined it for us.

[Snowcrazed71]

31 minutes ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said:

Great. Here comes to 2/20 at h5. We’ll waste another 7 days tracking this before the hadley cell devours it.

Damn, you are so cynical LOL. ( In all actuality I'm just trying to not be so cynical, but the way things have been going lately, I totally get it ). So stop it damn it!!! Lol ;-)

[ORH_wxman]

42 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

I would take that icestorm 

Weekend deal is not an icestorm unless you have that high anchored. Icon at 12z had it but no other guidance save maybe Ukie. 

[Damage In Tolland]

2 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

Weekend deal is not an icestorm unless you have that high anchored. Icon at 12z had it but no other guidance save maybe Ukie. 

Maybe . I’m still calling BS on the Euro though. 

[HoarfrostHubb]

I’m calling for the Euro to gradually cool each run until we get to a 32.5F all rain event. 

[WxWatcher007]

46 minutes ago, Snowcrazed71 said:

Damn, you are so cynical LOL. ( In all actuality I'm just trying to not be so cynical, but the way things have been going lately, I totally get it ). So stop it damn it!!! Lol ;-)

Eventually we will cycle back to good times but for now everything is just a struggle. Just how it goes sometimes. Just get stuff on the board—that’s the priority.

[DavisStraight]

42 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

Weekend deal is not an icestorm unless you have that high anchored. Icon at 12z had it but no other guidance save maybe Ukie. 

So your saying there's a chance?

[RUNNAWAYICEBERG]

1 hour ago, Snowcrazed71 said:

Damn, you are so cynical LOL. ( In all actuality I'm just trying to not be so cynical, but the way things have been going lately, I totally get it ). So stop it damn it!!! Lol ;-)

It’s a relentless cocktease in that d7-d10 window where the h5 flow is conducive for a coastal biggie but somehow someway the hadley cell appears at d5 to swallow our hopes. 

[ORH_wxman]

4 minutes ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said:

It’s a relentless cocktease in that d7-d10 window where the h5 flow is conducive for a coastal biggie but somehow someway the hadley cell appears at d5 to swallow our hopes. 

To be fair, nothing this week has really been a big coastal....it's always been overrunning and trying to be on the correct side of the gradient....this coming weekend sort of looked like it could redevelop into a coastal at one point, but it was like 80% overrunning precip even on those scenarios.

It's really the perfect storm of missing all the forcing at all the "correct" times to minimize our snow....there's big overrunning to our south tomorrow which is going to whiff us....then by the time the boundary moves north, we have an ill-timed shortwave riding well west of us to prevent good overrunning snows on Wednesday night and Thursday....so we're left with weak sauce precip....then of course on Saturday night and Sunday, we've alreayd mentioned the PV rotating into a surgically perfect location to knife the banana high in half to allow the storm to ride up right between them and screw us that way. Sometimes, you just get cold cards....maybe we can still salvage the weekend.

[WinterWolf]

Great description Will. Thanks. Makes perfect sense.  Can’t seem to catch a good nuance. 

[Kitz Craver]

10 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

To be fair, nothing this week has really been a big coastal....it's always been overrunning and trying to be on the correct side of the gradient....this coming weekend sort of looked like it could redevelop into a coastal at one point, but it was like 80% overrunning precip even on those scenarios.

It's really the perfect storm of missing all the forcing at all the "correct" times to minimize our snow....there's big overrunning to our south tomorrow which is going to whiff us....then by the time the boundary moves north, we have an ill-timed shortwave riding well west of us to prevent good overrunning snows on Wednesday night and Thursday....so we're left with weak sauce precip....then of course on Saturday night and Sunday, we've alreayd mentioned the PV rotating into a surgically perfect location to knife the banana high in half to allow the storm to ride up right between them and screw us that way. Sometimes, you just get cold cards....maybe we can still salvage the weekend.

Wow, We really have figured out every which way to suck. Hate to see it.

[ORH_wxman]

7 minutes ago, Kitz Craver said:

Wow, We really have figured out every which way to suck. Hate to see it.

We're gonna have more chances to screw it up too beyond this weekend. The pattern might be even more favorable after that....we'll see how it progresses, but decent agreement on western ridge building.

[WinterWolf]

Late 80’s into the the very early 90’s were horrific…everything would fail.  Then Feb 93 it seemed like we started to come back. Maybe the come back kind of started with the December of ’92 storm that season…?  But then Feb 93 started to wake up.   Let’s hope we can mimic something like that being we’re kind of in a similar place with things finding ways to fail.