February 2025 Disco/Obs Thread

[H2Otown_WX]

3 hours ago, CoastalWx said:

Looks like the euro ends winter.

Tip with a wife beater and bandana driving with the windows down listening to Mobb Deep?

[ORH_wxman]

4 minutes ago, ineedsnow said:

Icon is a pretty big ice storm

Yes it is....mesolow was good on that for ice over interior after the initial snow thump.

[Go Kart Mozart]

Love the 12z NAM for tomorrow night.  12 hours of snow...1".

[WinterWolf]

9 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

Yes it is....mesolow was good on that for ice over interior after the initial snow thump.

And This is for Saturday?  

[ORH_wxman]

11 minutes ago, WinterWolf said:

And This is for Saturday?  

Yes. Not biting yet though. It’s the icon and most other guidance has been showing warmer solutions the last day or so. 

[CoastalWx]

GFS  

[ineedsnow]

2 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

GFS  

snow/ice/rain here  meh

[CoastalWx]

Just now, ineedsnow said:

snow/ice/rain here  meh

Moving to euro. Confluence gone.

[ineedsnow]

1 minute ago, CoastalWx said:

Moving to euro. Confluence gone.

hopefully we Icon and get some damage

[TauntonBlizzard2013]

2 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

Moving to euro. Confluence gone.

Wash away all the salt at least. So much on the roads 

[CoastalWx]

This hobby blows. I can't wait for dews and beach season.

[dendrite]

Just now, TauntonBlizzard2013 said:

Wash away all the salt at least. So much on the roads 

You can barely make out the dashed white lines on 93 here. 

[radarman]

persistent backbuilding snsh at the moment

[UnitedWx]

1 hour ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

EURO AI is pretty pants-tenty all the way around......Thursday is like 3-4" from I 84 N & W, next weekend another 6-8" outside of 495, and then a big dog next week.

Where do you guys find the A.I.? I've been avoiding it, but maybe it's worth a peek

[DJln491]

mid 30s pouring rain next weekend in SNE?  no thanks

[ineedsnow]

4 minutes ago, radarman said:

persistent backbuilding snsh at the moment

yup been getting some good burst here

[ineedsnow]

CMC mostly frozen here

[WinterWolf]

13 minutes ago, ineedsnow said:

snow/ice/rain here  meh

Heading up North(Far N Maine) for the long weekend early Saturday morning…looks like it should be a good hit up there.  

[CoastalWx]

Don't worry folks, the GFS brings that PV over our head next week.

[mahk_webstah]

2 minutes ago, ineedsnow said:

CMC mostly frozen here

If it’s only the Canadian, it won’t happen. We need to let this play out until tomorrow.

[Snowcrazed71]

1 minute ago, WinterWolf said:

Heading up North(Far N Maine) for the long weekend early Saturday morning…looks like it should be a good hit up there.  

Yeah, you should be fine up there. I don't think precipitation type will be an issue. We're either going to see sloppy mixed to rain, or at best snow to a sloppy mix this weekend. At this point I'm looking ahead to next week

[Snowcrazed71]

Just now, CoastalWx said:

Don't worry folks, the GFS brings that PV over our head next week.

Tbh ... I would be perfectly happy if we had gotten a big dog next week and called it a day after that. I mean, if we get some surprises great. But everything has been so mediocre and really just a struggle to get something meaty. Time will tell. Just another week to wait!

[mahk_webstah]

I was hoping this last storm would change the mood more. I mean, I realize the models have been trending badly, but we have totally different experiences right now. Up here is deep winter with somewhere between 15 and 18 inches of beautiful powder on the ground. And down there, the frustration just keeps continuing. All this affects how we’re feeling about the winter and for me at this point if we finish with Climo snow and temps, this has been a pretty good winter . 

[SnowGoose69]

3 minutes ago, Snowcrazed71 said:

Tbh ... I would be perfectly happy if we had gotten a big dog next week and called it a day after that. I mean, if we get some surprises great. But everything has been so mediocre and really just a struggle to get something meaty. Time will tell. Just another week to wait!

The window to me is 2/17-2/23, after that if you even take the ensemble pattern verbatim and assume the Pac Jet is underdone the ridge again may end up too far east and we'll be cool and dry.

[tunafish]

whiff, meh, cutter, suppression

 

A masochist's dream.

[Sn0waddict]

Is it spring yet 

[WinterWolf]

Anything beyond 4-5 days is an unknown…tomorrow(Tuesday night) for the south coast crew, and more south of there.  Thursday is still a toss up on what really happens.  Saturday looks bad for SNE now…but can we really trust that look on Monday here?  And beyond Saturday… flip a coin. 

[TauntonBlizzard2013]

27 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

This hobby blows. I can't wait for dews and beach season.

Yeah, I’m tired. This weekend broke me a bit for this season. Just so tired of tracking mundane events and even those crapping the bed.

Ive grown to like the warmth more as I get older, so definitely looking forward to being outside and enjoying the nice weather 

[Typhoon Tip]

35 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

Don't worry folks, the GFS brings that PV over our head next week.

Good - that means it's dislodged and mobile and probably an indicator of some sort of pattern modulation is underway - which at this point ... I'm ready to Etch 'N Sketch this sucker clean and go for some sort of new paradigm - if not new season... like next f'n year ...  lol

Anyway, not sure it is believable but there are massive changes in the telcon post the 20th.  

+EPO/+PNA  ... with a completely neutralized AO.    The hemisphere does in fact wash the table and sets up a pure +PNA mid latitude, with actually limited blocking at that time.    

Transitioning into that regime, from this may require some sort of inflection/correction event.   H.A. leaps to mind.  By the way...I've known this for days but there's no sense in bringing it up 2.5 weeks in advance ...etc

[UnitedWx]

1 hour ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

In other words...prepare for the greater likelihood of nudity, however, the devil is in the details, as we saw in January. That being said, the baroclinic zone is climatologically less likely to navigate so far to the south later in the season....to that point, we look to maintain some subtle WAR influence, so the pattern looks good.

And IMO why we've had some damn decent storms in early March... at least March's of yore