February 2025 Disco/Obs Thread

[CoastalWx]

Just now, Typhoon Tip said:

There's also no propagating ( down welling ...) SSW spanning the last 20+ days

- this is an ordeal above that aroused via other wholesale mechanics.  

 

I think bottom up?

[Kitz Craver]

4 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

It's why I never get caught up with all these exotic looks 10 days out about sigma anomalies etc. We have a hell of a -AO and that PV is going to do enough that despite that AO look...send a low right up our fannies. 

Bleh. Seems pretty far gone too. We need wholesale changes and soon.

[40/70 Benchmark]

2 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said:

There's also no propagating ( down welling ...) SSW spanning the last 20+ days

- this is an ordeal above that aroused via other wholesale mechanics.  

 

Yea, I noticed that...what is drivinf this?

[Kitz Craver]

3 minutes ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said:

Pretty h5 colors.

I need some shrooms with all these pretty colors. 

[CoastalWx]

1 minute ago, Kitz Craver said:

Bleh. Seems pretty far gone too. We need wholesale changes and soon.

We'll see how the next 24 hours go, but can't afford wholesale steps back.

[CoastalWx]

1 minute ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Yea, I noticed that...what is drivinf this?

Think it was bottom up stuff.

[40/70 Benchmark]

6 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

Think it was bottom up stuff.

Troposphere feeding back into strat?

[CoastalWx]

Just now, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Troposphere fedding back into strat?

Yeah, although I haven't checked personally, just saying I think that is plausible.

[Typhoon Tip]

7 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

I think bottom up?

here's a good example from 2004 to help elucidate this... 

 

In this case of now ( 2025 ) the -AO began to take place prior to the onset of the splitting vortex, nor was there this behavior noted in the vertical PV column leading ...  SO yes to your question - it's a bottom up thing, but I wish folks would leave the SSW out of it because it just did not occur and whatever circumstance this is now that we are observing, it did not come about by the SSW model -

[40/70 Benchmark]

1 minute ago, Typhoon Tip said:

here's a good example from 2004 to help elucidate this... 

 

In this case of now ( 2025 ) the -AO began to take place prior to the onset of the splitting vortex, nor was there this behavior noted in the vertical PV column leading ...  SO yes to your question - it's a bottom up thing, but I wish folks would leave the SSW out of it because it just did not occur and whatever circumstance this is now that we are observing, it did not come about by the SSW model -

I'll have to note that in my post-season analysis...didn't specify in real time.

[WinterWolf]

So it’s not splitting? 

[40/70 Benchmark]

1 minute ago, WinterWolf said:

So it’s not splitting? 

It is, but its a different process than the traditional SSW....its happening due to lower proceccess and working up into the strat, so the impacts are felt more quickly since its beginning in the troposphere rather than the strat and downwelling.

[Typhoon Tip]

17 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Yea, I noticed that...what is drivinf this?

Good question... Without being a red-eyed grad student ... the arm-chair supposition is that it is probably wave harmonics at very large scales.  

Think of it like "rogue" wave phenomenon in open ocean.   Some times the waves all around a given wave, just happen to come into a constructive interference with that one wave, and they dump wave kinematic energy into that one wave.  Sacrificing some of their own wave space power, the result is that one wave gets a massive boost, its crest seems to rear up out of nowhere.  Sometimes as much 3 or even 4 X's the height of the surrounding tumult.

As a fascinating aside... because the Gulf Stream orientation to the easterly trade wind- sfc stressing wave pattern, it is thought that a lot of the marine loses in the "Bermuda Triangle" might have actually fallen victim to rogue wave phenomenon.. The g-string current is upright against the E trade, or close to it...

Anyway, that's all wave harmonics...  The atmosphere also can do this.

[40/70 Benchmark]

That has been a theme this year.....the troposphere has been driving the bus....kind of a tail wagging the dog phenomenon, whereas the PV has been stout most of the year, but it has not been coupled with the troposphere...hence the blocking patterns.

[MJO812]

Mjo going into 8 should amplify the pattern.

[40/70 Benchmark]

3 minutes ago, MJO812 said:

Mjo going into 8 should amplify the pattern.

That is when we lose the tropical influence that is sending these lows inland....the tropics will provide constructive interference with the disturbed polar domain, as opposed to the current deconstructive interference.

[RUNNAWAYICEBERG]

9 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

That is when we lose the tropical influence that is sending these lows inland....the tropics will provide constructive interference with the disturbed polar domain, as opposed to the current deconstructive interference.

In other hands…Prepare to get naked late month?

[40/70 Benchmark]

2 minutes ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said:

In other hands…Prepare to get naked late month?

In other words...prepare for the greater likelihood of nudity, however, the devil is in the details, as we saw in January. That being said, the baroclinic zone is climatologically less likely to navigate so far to the south later in the season....to that point, we look to maintain some subtle WAR influence, so the pattern looks good.

[Prismshine Productions]

Hey did any models have SNSH progged for today? Been light parachutes all morning here

Sent from my SM-S156V using Tapatalk

[40/70 Benchmark]

My research actually favored later into February and especially March for a true SSW, so imagine that we begin to see signs of that.....spring by Memorial Day?

[OceanStWx]

1 minute ago, Prismshine Productions said:

Hey did any models have SNSH progged for today? Been light parachutes all morning here

Sent from my SM-S156V using Tapatalk
 

Most guidance has a hint of snow showers for southern VT today, but in reality most models are dogshit when it comes to these shallow upslope snow showers.

[mahk_webstah]

42 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

I think my bottom up?

Is it really that bad?

[Sey-Mour Snow]

4 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

My research actually favored later into February and especially March for a true SSW, so imagine that we begin to see signs of that.....spring by Memorial Day?

I don't do long range seasonal stuff, after your post earlier I decided to check CFS for shTS and giggles.. It's like -10 to -15 temp anomalies over the Northeast next 6 weeks with 8-10" of qpf.. interesting

[40/70 Benchmark]

1 minute ago, Sey-Mour Snow said:

I don't do long range seasonal stuff, after your post earlier I decided to check CFS for shTS and giggles.. It's like -10 to -15 temp anomalies over the Northeast next 6 weeks with 8-10" of qpf.. interesting

Yea, I think winter loves us long time...how much snowfall that means is debatable, but I don't think the implication of a delayed spring is.

[Prismshine Productions]

I don't do long range seasonal stuff, after your post earlier I decided to check CFS for shTS and giggles.. It's like -10 to -15 temp anomalies over the Northeast next 6 weeks with 8-10" of qpf.. interesting

Hell even the Euro weeklies were BN through St. Patrick's Day

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[RUNNAWAYICEBERG]

10 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

My research actually favored later into February and especially March for a true SSW, so imagine that we begin to see signs of that.....spring by Memorial Day?

NE ‘Spring’ beisbol of yore. 

[eekuasepinniW]

Unanticipated heavy snow.

[ineedsnow]

light snow and 26  winter feel continues

[CoastalWx]

Sun and solar Phil.

[ineedsnow]

Icon is a pretty big ice storm