February 2025 Disco/Obs Thread

[GCWarrior]

Sunday is good timing.  No snow days!

[Prismshine Productions]

Sunday is good timing.  No snow days!

I work Thursday and Fridays so it would be perfect

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[ORH_wxman]

12 minutes ago, Prismshine Productions said:

SWFEs follow a lower ratio?

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Almost always. 

[dendrite]

3 minutes ago, Prismshine Productions said:

SWFEs follow a lower ratio?

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Generally yes. You have warmer air overrunning the lower cold dome so that 850-700 layer typically quickly climbs above the -12 to -18C max DGZ. Sometimes you can start with initial decent ratios, but eventually the 9-10:1 piles on top of it. There’s other caveats like secondary lows and if it’s a very cold SWFE (think snow starting with temps near 0F in our area) so that there’s a longer period of overrunning lift in the DGZ. But generally it’s a 9-12:1 ratio snow before any possible sleet moves in.

[DJln491]

put on your weenie goggles on for this gfs run.  

[ineedsnow]

Lol GFS has 2ft 

[RUNNAWAYICEBERG]

Looks great at d7. 

[ma blizzard]

2 minutes ago, ineedsnow said:

Lol GFS has 2ft 

nice step towards more of a costal too 

[Sey-Mour Snow]

3 minutes ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said:

Looks great at d7. 

Man I wouldn’t mind that verbatim here.. several inches of snow and sleet with freezing rain in the middle glacierizing it 

[cleetussnow]

Lets get more than one model and inside of the 5 day strike zone before someone threads it.  And no snow-maps until day 5 please.  

[Torch Tiger]

GGEM big 'un as well.

[MJO812]

Ukie also shifted south

[Snowcrazed71]

LFG......

[EastonSN+]

15 minutes ago, Torch Tiger said:

GGEM big 'un as well.

Hopefully another jump South and colder so Southern New England can benefit too.

[CoastalWx]

Still not in reality land yet.

[Damage In Tolland]

Doesn’t really seem like the pattern is conducive to a big coastal . Still fast flow so a moderate overrunning seems more realistic. 

[UnitedWx]

2 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

Still not in reality land yet.

Absolutely not... lets just hope something still shows Wednesday. To me the clipper looked a little better this run as well... a little

[CoastalWx]

Then we Tip heat burst. End winter before Valentines Day.

[DJln491]

35 minutes ago, cleetussnow said:

.....  And no snow-maps until day 5 please.  

certain people will be waking up in the middle of the night with the cold sweats

[CoastalWx]

I haven’t seen Euro, but the GFS and Canadian looked decent. Let’s just hope we can hold this for a few days.

[mahk_webstah]

7 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

I haven’t seen Euro, but the GFS and Canadian looked decent. Let’s just hope we can hold this for a few days.

If it is a swfe redeveloper we can start taking this seriously tomorrow nights runs Tuesday morning 

[Torch Tiger]

time to lock it in and start a thread!

[weathafella]

4 minutes ago, mahk_webstah said:

If it is a swfe redeveloper we can start taking this seriously tomorrow nights runs Tuesday morning 

I think Wednesday at the earliest we take it seriously.  There’s a strong pressing trend.  It would seem unlikely to have it go too far south but we’ve seen that before especially during 2003-04.

[weathafella]

33 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

Then we Tip heat burst. End winter before Valentines Day.

Well not really-verbatim it’s a 3 day break and the gefs don’t seem interested in it.

[HIPPYVALLEY]

Just now, weathafella said:

Well not really-verbatim it’s a 3 day break and the gefs don’t seem interested in it.

I think any heat is brief for us and is mostly for the mid-Atlantic. 

[CoastalWx]

1 minute ago, weathafella said:

Well not really-verbatim it’s a 3 day break and the gefs don’t seem interested in it.

I’m just messing around 

[weathafella]

And sure enough euro is a bit too far south but I like our trends overall.  Now it can slow and stop.

[CoastalWx]

Euro actually  starts as rain for the region.

[George001]

I’ll believe it when I see the snow falling. This keeps happening, the models show big snows a week out and then the rug pull happens in the short range. Can’t even trust it even 1 day out, the gfs and euro had me getting a fairly significant storm last time and I only got a minor snowfall.

[CoastalWx]

Euro verbatim is a non event. Right when it gets cold enough it sinks south. Would be fitting lol.