February 2025 Disco/Obs Thread

[Ginx snewx]

3 hours ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

2003-2004 sucked for snow in my hood. I know it was better for you, but massive??

Only one . Dec 03 storm was awesome 

[40/70 Benchmark]

22 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said:

This winter may have been a good example of how ENSO is too heavily relied upon in seasonal outlooks and always has been.

About 12 or so years ago ... even NCEP began cautioning in their seasonal outlooks that the polarward indices can at times overpower and lead to break down of the correlations they use - name ENSO as primary - for more N latitudes such as the NP-GL-N OV and NE regions.  

This season's layout smacks like it was a poor La Nina performer over N Amer.

Well, La nina was also weak....there has always been more variability amongst weaker events. 2008 and 2000 were both weaker la nina events...and cold. Extra tropical influences def. have more proxy in those instances.

[Ginx snewx]

2 hours ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said:

How many BN winters have we had this century compared to AN?

Average here celestial winter is 32 so about even

[Damage In Tolland]

18 minutes ago, FXWX said:

Ice hanging tough at high points of Burlington on Day 6.... Peak gust this morning 48 mph!

One more day of damage!

[FXWX]

10 minutes ago, Ginx snewx said:

Yes

Thanks... Would love to see one in Northwest CT...

[snowman19]

1 hour ago, Heisy said:

Here’s what I’m talking about off the 6z euro Ai, and it was hinted at on other models last night,

There’s the wave day 7, that wave has a SE flow ahead of it and not much chance for frozen outside elevations, but right on its heels is another N/S shortwave which OP euro and Ai develop a second low.

If we can get some spacing between the two it could work for you guys.





Both the 00z and 6z euro Ai redevelop that second wave and dump snow in SNE. The cmc was trying to turn the corner too. Not betting the house on it, but with the brief PNA spike maybe it’s possible.


.

After the utter dumpster fire debacle with the models for yesterday, (and more times than I can count this winter for that matter), why would anyone take what the models are showing at day 9 seriously? 

[40/70 Benchmark]

9 minutes ago, Ginx snewx said:

Only one . Dec 03 storm was awesome 

Yes, I won't argue the point that its rare. Vast majority of cold winters for us are also snowy.

[Ginx snewx]

2 hours ago, CoastalWx said:

It’s akin to the weenies saying back is broken in August when we get our first cool shot. It’s definitely going to get colder after 3/1 but maybe it last 7-10 days? You can see the PAC jet seems like it wants to get more active. That cold won’t last long by that date if it happens. 

Back broken last August dews and HHH gone like yesterday 

[Ginx snewx]

1 hour ago, Kitz Craver said:

I’ve heard shoulder surgery rehab is pretty brutal.

Replacement 10 times easier than labrum rotator surgery 

[Ginx snewx]

9 minutes ago, FXWX said:

Thanks... Would love to see one in Northwest CT...

 

[CoastalWx]

GFS has 50s for Tuesday. 

[Sey-Mour Snow]

7 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

GFS has 50s for Tuesday. 

60 close by! And 50 Wednesday too,  Let’s melt it all! 

[CoastalWx]

Just now, Sey-Mour Snow said:

60 close by! And 50 Wednesday too,  Let’s melt it all! 

That's going to feel great. Looking forward to it.

[CoastalWx]

18 minutes ago, Ginx snewx said:

Replaced my weenie 10 times with labia surgery 

Sounds like retirement is treating you well!

[dryslot]

Cold and windy out here today, Stopped in to Bald Mtn Camps on Mooselook Meguntic Lake for lunch.

[Heisy]

12z gfs has the miller b I mentioned this AM




.

[dryslot]

In like a lion.

[CoastalWx]

Probably Miller Lite at 18z.

[ma blizzard]

7 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

Probably Miller Lite at 18z.

Sobers up and O'doul's by 0z? 

[ma blizzard]

It is a beauty this run tho .. gotta love the high pressure placement too

[tamarack]

2 hours ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Its a bit colder vs 1991-2020 climo across SNE, but I'm suprised....thought it was colder.

One paradox of this winter's temps may be that the overabundance of wind made it feel colder, but it blew away the rad pits thus keeping the overnights less cold.

Barring a torch to end the month, DJF will be 1-1.5F below my 27-year average (and 6-7F colder than the previous 2 winters).  My average doesn't include all of 1991-2020.  It misses the Pinatubo chill but also excludes the mild winters of 96-97 & 97-98.

[NeonPeon]

2 hours ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

No, they haven't...at least not by 1991-2020 standards.

They have in my back yard against a longer mean. A half a degree colder in jan, almost bang on in February. Unusually high wind-chill though. 

[Sey-Mour Snow]

14 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

Probably Miller Lite at 18z.

That will trend to a fropa by next week.  

[ineedsnow]

UKIE with rain to snow the 28th.. only goes out to hr168 but that storm was deepening quick

[WinterWolf]

14 minutes ago, Sey-Mour Snow said:

That will trend to a fropa by next week.  

Sad part is it probably will…but it’s just too far out there at 9 days.  We know how these go.  But as depicted, that would be a great way to end the winter.   

[SJonesWX]

1 hour ago, dryslot said:

Cold and windy out here today, Stopped in to Bald Mtn Camps on Mooselook Meguntic Lake for lunch.

is that Batman on the left?

[dendrite]

4 minutes ago, SJonesWX said:

is that Batman on the left?

[tamarack]

1 hour ago, Ginx snewx said:

Only one . Dec 03 storm was awesome 

03-04 started great, 2 storms totaling 37" by Dec 15 including one of only 4 true blizzards here.  Unfortunately, the rest of winter brought only 36" - not a ratter but 20% BN.

[Ginx snewx]

Deep deep freeze on GFS last 8 days high average 26⁰ low 13⁰ at ORH 19.5 ⁰ average which is 13 BN for that period 

[40/70 Benchmark]

28 minutes ago, NeonPeon said:

They have in my back yard against a longer mean. A half a degree colder in jan, almost bang on in February. Unusually high wind-chill though. 

Against a longer mean....yes.