Jump to content
  • Member Statistics

    17,795
    Total Members
    7,904
    Most Online
    manaja
    Newest Member
    manaja
    Joined

February 2025 Disco/Obs Thread


Torch Tiger
 Share

Recommended Posts

6 minutes ago, WinterWolf said:

Don’t buy into the over attribution and nonsense.  If you listened to the hype, it shouldn’t have been this cold all winter either.   And Florida and the gulf coast- 40 miles out into the ocean getting a full blown blizzard with over a foot of snow, did anyone think that would be possible.  And all the cold records going down in the Midwest and south this week now…ya don’t buy the hype.  We’ll be just fine. 

How many BN winters have we had this century compared to AN?

Link to comment
Share on other sites

10 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

 But you can already see it may be breaking down by the end there. I dunno, back is broken after this weekend imo. Doesn’t mean it can’t have some snow or cold, just like in August when we can have heat and dews.

All I'm saying is that if that ends up going from a -EPO, into that ?  

Back is not broken.  

But to be fair ... it also depends on what we want to call back breaking.   It's subjective ...  Relaxing the never get as high as 32 F with lows between 0 and 15?  Okay.    But if we are replacing with 4 or 5 days of napage,  only to then follow by unfunnable indeterminably long compression windy cold no storms shit eating 37 F... "to me" that is trying to oversell the back as actually having been broken.

But like I said ..that's just me talkin'

Now, if we want to argue that  -EPO loads cold into a massive historically preposterous P.O.S. oddity flow, won't happen? fine.    

Link to comment
Share on other sites

43 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

We were definitely due for a colder winter. I don’t think next year will be as cold, but I wouldn’t expect the previous two winters temps either. 

Yeah I'm guessing people got so acclimated to the last two winters that they are starting to think that +5 against 1991-2020 climo is the "New normal"....this was basically an average winter for temps...maybe slightly BN. We will see winters significantly colder than this one.

  • Like 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Here’s what I’m talking about off the 6z euro Ai, and it was hinted at on other models last night,

There’s the wave day 7, that wave has a SE flow ahead of it and not much chance for frozen outside elevations, but right on its heels is another N/S shortwave which OP euro and Ai develop a second low.

If we can get some spacing between the two it could work for you guys.

8b59bf89782196f0de0bce4c7ed0b0ef.jpg
f22798ea90235e475cdfb1bdb828e5ae.jpg


Both the 00z and 6z euro Ai redevelop that second wave and dump snow in SNE. The cmc was trying to turn the corner too. Not betting the house on it, but with the brief PNA spike maybe it’s possible.


.

  • Like 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

6 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said:

All I'm saying is that if that ends up going from a -EPO, into that ?  

Back is not broken.  

But to be fair ... it also depends on what we want to call back breaking.   It's subjective ...  Relaxing the never get as high as 32 F with lows between 0 and 15?  Okay.    But if we are replacing with 4 or 5 days of napage,  only to then follow by unfunnable indeterminably long compression windy cold no storms shit eating 37 F... "to me" that is trying to oversell the back as actually having been broken.

But like I said ..that's just me talkin'

Now, if we want to argue that  -EPO loads cold into a massive historically preposterous P.O.S. oddity flow set up than fine.    

It’s akin to the weenies saying back is broken in August when we get our first cool shot. It’s definitely going to get colder after 3/1 but maybe it last 7-10 days? You can see the PAC jet seems like it wants to get more active. That cold won’t last long by that date if it happens. 

  • Like 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

16 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

Nobody ever said extremes can’t happen. But the cold is less and less overall as the warmth is more and more. 

We’ll, Not this year it wasn’t…not even close. Not even in the Deep South.  Snowed everywhere..even in places it doesn’t snow(unfortunately for us it wasn’t here-bad fortune).  Nobody saw any of that happening. So Mother Nature showed us we don’t as much as we think we do. 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Just now, WinterWolf said:

We’ll, Not this year it wasn’t…not even close. Not even in the Deep South.  Snowed everywhere..even in places it doesn’t snow(unfortunately for us it wasn’t here-bad fortune).  Nobody saw any of that happening. So Mother Nature showed us we don’t as much as we think we do. 

We know plenty. The globe was a torch. 

  • Like 1
  • 100% 5
Link to comment
Share on other sites

2 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

It’s akin to the weenies saying back is broken in August when we get our first cool shot. It’s definitely going to get colder after 3/1 but maybe it last 7-10 days? You can see the PAC jet seems like it wants to get more active. That cold won’t last long by that date if it happens. 

Yeah, this is the best way to look at it (bold).

That f'n look though...  

this below?   this is the worse for the most possible people.  You're not getting spring;  you're not getting storms because of elephant ass on trampoline kinematic stoppage.    Worst for the most possible people and no one can rejoice, misery.  

image.png.d838e3062102331d32ce4189cf0e2457.png

 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

22 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

 But you can already see it may be breaking down by the end there. I dunno, back is broken after this weekend imo. Doesn’t mean it can’t have some snow or cold, just like in August when we can have heat and dews.

once August comes it always seems that we turned a corner and fall isn't that far away.. same with February you know the cold and snow is almost done and warmer times are ahead. 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

3 minutes ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said:

Yup. We were in our own cocoon insulated by cool air for the first time in like 5yrs lol. 

China over to the eastern part of the Middle East was pretty cold this winter as well.

 

image.png.255cccffeae67e21f229c2befa8ea40e.png

  • Thanks 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

1 minute ago, Typhoon Tip said:

Yeah, this is the best way to look at it (bold).

That f'n look though...  

this below?   this is the worse for the most possible people.  You're not getting spring;  you're not getting storms because of elephant ass on trampoline kinematic stoppage.    Worst for the most possible people and no one can rejoice, misery.  

image.png.d838e3062102331d32ce4189cf0e2457.png

 

I’ve seen enough of that look this winter and have a cosmic you know what to show for it. 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

We talk about temps all the time especially over the last few winters. There is nothing more frustrating then to finally have winter temps but either the moisture lacks or the tracks precisely eff you just enough to suck the joy out of anything wintry. That’s how it’s felt since early December.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

1 minute ago, ORH_wxman said:

China over to the eastern part of the Middle East was pretty cold this winter as well.

 

image.png.255cccffeae67e21f229c2befa8ea40e.png

I wonder if the Eurasian/China anomalies were more in the February time span.   The just January was quite a bit different - but it was also a different source I'm guessing just judging by the graphics' complexion, too. 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

4 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said:

I wonder if the Eurasian/China anomalies were more in the February time span.   The just January was quite a bit different - but it was also a different source I'm guessing just judging by the graphics' complexion, too. 

December was quite cold from China to ME too. It was actually the coldest stretch on the globe outside of a frigid Greenland that month.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

1 hour ago, NeonPeon said:

The temps here have been just about average, which is to say mean temps have been 3 to 4 degrees above what they've been the last five years. To hear people though, we are deep in an arctic tundra. There's definitely recency bias comparing to abnormal warmth but it also does feel cold, this is because it has been a remarkably windy winter, especially for one that hasn't really had any notable storms.

On that front... This has been yet another atrocious winter for snow. With little to hope for in the forecast here and approaching March... This could be the third year in a row of single digit snowfall here. 

No, they haven't...at least not by 1991-2020 standards.

  • Like 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

31 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

Yeah I'm guessing people got so acclimated to the last two winters that they are starting to think that +5 against 1991-2020 climo is the "New normal"....this was basically an average winter for temps...maybe slightly BN. We will see winters significantly colder than this one.

Its a bit colder vs 1991-2020 climo across SNE, but I'm suprised....thought it was colder.

Composite Plot

Link to comment
Share on other sites

33 minutes ago, Heisy said:

Here’s what I’m talking about off the 6z euro Ai, and it was hinted at on other models last night,

There’s the wave day 7, that wave has a SE flow ahead of it and not much chance for frozen outside elevations, but right on its heels is another N/S shortwave which OP euro and Ai develop a second low.

If we can get some spacing between the two it could work for you guys.

8b59bf89782196f0de0bce4c7ed0b0ef.jpg
f22798ea90235e475cdfb1bdb828e5ae.jpg


Both the 00z and 6z euro Ai redevelop that second wave and dump snow in SNE. The cmc was trying to turn the corner too. Not betting the house on it, but with the brief PNA spike maybe it’s possible.


.

Hold on, let me hold my breath-

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Create an account or sign in to comment

You need to be a member in order to leave a comment

Create an account

Sign up for a new account in our community. It's easy!

Register a new account

Sign in

Already have an account? Sign in here.

Sign In Now
 Share

×
×
  • Create New...