February 2025 Disco/Obs Thread

[CoastalWx]

4 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

2003-2004 sucked for snow in my hood. I know it was better for you, but massive??

That winter sucked.

[WinterWolf]

What dos next Friday/28th look like this morning? 

[40/70 Benchmark]

1 minute ago, CoastalWx said:

That winter sucked.

Yup....took my largest porking ever on Dec 5, and then January was like -20 every night with hardly any snow.

[CoastalWx]

Just now, 40/70 Benchmark said:

The first two weeks of March of fair game for big snows, but the second half gets dicey in terms of climo around here....so that may be an ideal sequence. Once we get into latter March a "cold" pattern isn't as redeeming as is in winter.

I feel like we’ve wasted the whole season with potential given the temps. Too bad. 

[WinterWolf]

3 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

Can I already see the EPO breaking down. First week of March might be below normal but after that, I think we warm up. Next week we make big damage in the pack. It’s about over.

That’s already at the 3rd week though…big time clown range. But I’d be fine with that if it actually plays out. 

[CoastalWx]

1 minute ago, WinterWolf said:

What dos next Friday/29th look like this morning? 

Right now not much of an anything. Don’t really see a concise signal. Doesn’t look cold though.

[CoastalWx]

Seems like best chance of anything starts after 3/1 for about 10 days before we get out of it.

[WinterWolf]

1 minute ago, CoastalWx said:

Right now not much of an anything. Don’t really see a concise signal. Doesn’t look cold though.

Ok..yesterday and for days prior it was a good signal, now no. Oh well..story of this winter. Thanks for the info. 

[40/70 Benchmark]

8 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

I feel like we’ve wasted the whole season with potential given the temps. Too bad. 

The way I look at is its another poison pill  out of the way...we have seen just about every flavor of shitty winter over the course of the past several years.....furnace-check.....rough pattern out west-check, cold with comparitively little snow-check, "El Nina"...a la 1972-1973-checked that off last year. Looking back throughout our climo history, I don't believe that there is a poison pill left that we haven't recently ingested.

Get all of these poison pills out the way because its going to rock in a few years. JMHO. I know some feel differently due to CC....no use arguing because no one is going to change anyone's mind. Lets wait and see.

[jbenedet]

The long wave pattern has persistently sucked for coastals; I think that was something that could be picked up on early, and used to forecast BN snowfall in the warmer climate zones of New England despite the clearer indications of persistent cold.  

 

 

[WinterWolf]

Just now, CoastalWx said:

Seems like best chance of anything starts after 3/1 for about 10 days before we get out of it.

Ya..that’s good. I’ll be back from my last trip up north on 3/10, and I’ll be ready to pack it in at that point.  So I’ll take that sequence. 

[40/70 Benchmark]

1 minute ago, jbenedet said:

The long wave pattern has persistently sucked for coastals; I think that was something that could be picked up on early, and used to forecast BN snowfall in the warmer climate zones of New England despite the clearer indications of persistent cold.  

 

 

100%...this is what I am getting at when I harp on the pattern out west all season and the sequence just being off. That is why the ridge out west is always crap.

[CoastalWx]

15 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

100%...this is what I am getting at when I harp on the pattern out west all season and the sequence just being off. That is why the ridge out west is always crap.

Water is 38F. Rest assured we won’t take advantage of that with a coastal, but the back doors will be nice.  

[40/70 Benchmark]

6 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

Water is 38F. Rest assured we won’t take advantage of that with a coastal, but the back doors will be nice.  

Oh yea....I'm sure we'll have a stiff NE breeze delivering a steady supply of ass-mist for the marathon, etc.....bank on that.

[ineedsnow]

1 hour ago, Ginx snewx said:

March start looks pretty bitter hopefully we can stir up a March 13 storm 

March 23 

[Allsnow]

3 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

Water is 38F. Rest assured we won’t take advantage of that with a coastal, but the back doors will be nice.  

Hopefully we don’t revert back to our normal winter regime temp wise next season 

[RUNNAWAYICEBERG]

7 minutes ago, Allsnow said:

Hopefully we don’t revert back to our normal winter regime temp wise next season 

We will. This season was a unicorn.

[codfishsnowman]

I believe CC is very real but that certainly doesn't mean its never gonna rock again snow wise. We may get a few monsters due in part to CC at some point.

[CoastalWx]

5 minutes ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said:

We will. This season was a unicorn.

We were definitely due for a colder winter. I don’t think next year will be as cold, but I wouldn’t expect the previous two winters temps either. 

[UnitedWx]

45 minutes ago, WinterWolf said:

Ok..yesterday and for days prior it was a good signal, now no. Oh well..story of this winter. Thanks for the info. 

Yeah unfortunately right now it looks like dried doggie doo, but keep an eye on the following week. Probably our last chance in SNE, but I'd bet that you'll likely be sledding til April in NNE.

[NeonPeon]

The temps here have been just about average, which is to say mean temps have been 3 to 4 degrees above what they've been the last five years. To hear people though, we are deep in an arctic tundra. There's definitely recency bias comparing to abnormal warmth but it also does feel cold, this is because it has been a remarkably windy winter, especially for one that hasn't really had any notable storms.

On that front... This has been yet another atrocious winter for snow. With little to hope for in the forecast here and approaching March... This could be the third year in a row of single digit snowfall here. 

[Typhoon Tip]

1 hour ago, WinterWolf said:

What dos next Friday/28th look like this morning? 

Decreasing in significance.. 

The ensembles appear to be getting more members opting toward a frontal pass with a wave on it, rather than an organized kink cyclone on the boundary that rides up after like those tastier runs before.  The operational versions almost lost it all together on the 00z cycles ...

I'm sort of losing patience with these models correcting faster/progressive, in the sense that I don't believe any of these "threats" any longer.  Not sure how one can after this unflappable persistence to degenerate storm spaces.  

They're (models) are doing it again... the whole season's been plagued by this rug pulling aspect.   It looks like a thing may just work out but as the period in question moves into mid range, the heights lower too much from the N two aspects begin:   offsets the short wave strength;  speeds things up so that even if we got something of it it's barely an afternoon's worth.

[Damage In Tolland]

Unreal amounts of LES

https://x.com/shanemuckey/status/1892680001671123387?s=46&t=dhcbvkjmRcyBVQtDxJ3lRg

[CoastalWx]

13 minutes ago, NeonPeon said:

The temps here have been just about average, which is to say mean temps have been 3 to 4 degrees above what they've been the last five years. To hear people though, we are deep in an arctic tundra. There's definitely recency bias comparing to abnormal warmth but it also does feel cold, this is because it has been a remarkably windy winter, especially for one that hasn't really had any notable storms.

On that front... This has been yet another atrocious winter for snow. With little to hope for in the forecast here and approaching March... This could be the third year in a row of single digit snowfall here. 

Temps have been BN in the current 30 yr avg.

[WinterWolf]

28 minutes ago, codfishsnowman said:

I believe CC is very real but that certainly doesn't mean its never gonna rock again snow wise. We may get a few monsters due in part to CC at some point.

Don’t buy into the over attribution and nonsense.  If you listened to the hype, it shouldn’t have been this cold all winter either.   And Florida and the gulf coast- 40 miles out into the ocean getting a full blown blizzard with over a foot of snow, did anyone think that would be possible.  And all the cold records going down in the Midwest and south this week now…ya don’t buy the hype.  We’ll be just fine. 

[Heisy]

I think models generally ticked towards a potential miller B around first few days of March, gotta see how N stream evolves but I think there’s some decent potential around this time frame


.

[CoastalWx]

1 minute ago, WinterWolf said:

Don’t buy into the over attribution and nonsense.  If you listened to the hype, it shouldn’t have been this cold all winter either.   And Florida and the gulf coast- 40 miles out into the ocean getting a full blown blizzard with over a foot of snow, did anyone think that would be possible.  And all the cold records going down in the Midwest and south this week now…ya don’t buy the hype.  We’ll be just fine. 

Nobody ever said extremes can’t happen. But the cold is less and less overall as the warmth is more and more. 

[Typhoon Tip]

3 hours ago, CoastalWx said:

Man we could be napin’ next week. 

Agreed ... but it may be transient.

I'd like to say we turned the corner but the longer range has different ideas.  There may only be a relaxation in the recent relative cold persistence for 5 days but that deep range -EPO ... it's going to load cold anew but where?   

After that rough Mar 2 -7th -EPO the hemisphere evolves into a strange look - all the ens system agree too so no luck there.  90% of all negative anomalies in the entire N hemisphere are compressing the flow from Chicago to S of Greenland toward the end of the first week of Mar.   This being directly after said -EPO, it's like the ballast of all the cold available is completely displaced off the polar field, and is jamming SE.  

Spring canceled if this sets ... period!    Not saying it will...  Strange orientations like this sometimes have a way of not happening. LOL.

This is about the only way to be cold when the numerical fields derive to a +EPO/-PNA/+AO/+NAO  (the NAO may be +23 here!!)

 

[mreaves]

MPV is -4.1° for the month but I'm sure next week will put a dent in that.  What sticks out to me is the constant wind.  Look at column 17 below.

 

[CoastalWx]

Just now, Typhoon Tip said:

Agreed ... but it may be transient.

I'd like to say we turned the corner but the longer range has different ideas.  There may only be a relaxation in the recent relative cold persistence for 5 days but that deep range -EPO ... it's going to load cold anew but where?   

After the EPO the henisphere evolves into strange looks.  90% of all negative anomalies in the entire N hemisphere compress the flow from Chicago to S of Greenland toward the end of the first week of Mar.   This being directly after said -EPO, tells me that the polar field is completely displaced off the polar field, and is jamming SE.  

Spring canceled if this sets ... period!    Not saying it will...  Strange orientations like this sometimes have a way of not happening. LOL.

This is about the only way to be cold when the numerical fields derive to a +EPO/-PNA/+AO/+NAO  (the NAO may be +23 here!!)

 

 But you can already see it may be breaking down by the end there. I dunno, back is broken after this weekend imo. Doesn’t mean it can’t have some snow or cold, just like in August when we can have heat and dews.