CoastalWx Posted Wednesday at 05:52 PM Share Posted Wednesday at 05:52 PM 9 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: That system looks like the last one with a shitter antecedent airmass. Back to the days of -1C at 925. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kitz Craver Posted Wednesday at 05:56 PM Share Posted Wednesday at 05:56 PM 5 minutes ago, UnitedWx said: What was it 1983 or 82?? we had the surprise storm down in SNE. I remember staying up way past my bedtime to watch the 11:00 p.m. news weather reports. I still remember Hilton Kaderly showing the map with a high pressure north of New England saying it was the Rock of Gibraltar and the storm would go out to sea, woke up early the next morning to a white out. And that was the last good one for several years It’s funny how the inaccuracy of modeling is almost always from something great to nothing. I’m not saying positive busts don’t happen, it’s just so rare and it’s not like you go from no storm to a blizzard. It’s more like oh wow I got 8” instead of 5”. More commonly though we will see a massive storm on modeling and it fades to nothing. Why doesnt it ever go the other way? I’m sure if we were all being surprised by positive bust storms on the regular we wouldn’t be as hard on the models. Alas, it’s ALWAYS a let down, bring back surprise storms and positive busts. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted Wednesday at 06:08 PM Share Posted Wednesday at 06:08 PM 10 minutes ago, Kitz Craver said: It’s funny how the inaccuracy of modeling is almost always from something great to nothing. I’m not saying positive busts don’t happen, it’s just so rare and it’s not like you go from no storm to a blizzard. It’s more like oh wow I got 8” instead of 5”. More commonly though we will see a massive storm on modeling and it fades to nothing. Why doesnt it ever go the other way? I’m sure if we were all being surprised by positive bust storms on the regular we wouldn’t be as hard on the models. Alas, it’s ALWAYS a let down, bring back surprise storms and positive busts. Because it's much easier to lose a storm when you only have a 50 mile wide area to cash in on. It's similar to the logic of why a cutter is modeled 10 days out and yet we can't get a storm to hold. Whether the low goes over Albany or Michigan..the sensible weather for us is the same. We are not losing events 48 hrs out. People are getting too comfortable hoping we lock something in 7 days out. 2 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted Wednesday at 06:08 PM Share Posted Wednesday at 06:08 PM I applaud the Euro for detecting ... ... this season's achievement in snowing the least plausible amount relative to any physical circumstance is finally being modeled by one of these damn things. The 28th signal on this run has a coastal running up with an impressive nor'easter signaled, yet nothing happens on the west side of the cyclone the entire way up the coast. that's a neat trick... but then again, I don't put anything past this season at this point. 2 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NeonPeon Posted Wednesday at 06:11 PM Share Posted Wednesday at 06:11 PM 10 minutes ago, Kitz Craver said: It’s funny how the inaccuracy of modeling is almost always from something great to nothing. I’m not saying positive busts don’t happen, it’s just so rare and it’s not like you go from no storm to a blizzard. It’s more like oh wow I got 8” instead of 5”. More commonly though we will see a massive storm on modeling and it fades to nothing. Why doesnt it ever go the other way? I’m sure if we were all being surprised by positive bust storms on the regular we wouldn’t be as hard on the models. Alas, it’s ALWAYS a let down, bring back surprise storms and positive busts. It does happen, I think you've got a lot of confirmation bias here, in that we tend to remember negative outcomes. I've gone from no winter weather advisory to 13 inches once. Most negative busts I've had have been within a range of probabilistic forecasts, i.e. if you looked at the 10% outcome for a low snow output, then there you go. 10% isn't particularly unlikely. I think it's just the better the models get the more distant we look until we are at a point of relatively low confidence. Modeling has never been better, out expectations never higher. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sey-Mour Snow Posted Wednesday at 06:12 PM Share Posted Wednesday at 06:12 PM 1 minute ago, Typhoon Tip said: I applaud the Euro for detecting ... ... this season's achievement in snowing the least plausible amount relative to any physical circumstance is finally being modeled by one of these damn things. The 28th signal on this run has a coastal running up with an impressive nor'easter signaled, yet nothing happens on the west side of the cyclone the entire way up the coast. that's a neat trick... but then again, I don't put anything past this season at this point. I knew you’d like that one, beast of a storm with nothing to show for it. 40mb drop bombogensis in 24 hours from hatteras to the benchmark to Nova Scotia. And no snow to speak of until down east Maine. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DavisStraight Posted Wednesday at 06:13 PM Share Posted Wednesday at 06:13 PM 26 minutes ago, UnitedWx said: Must've been April '82. I don't remember March '84. IIRC my area missed it. I'll have to look it up. Edit, I remember 1982 now that was the storm where it had been very warm a couple weeks beforehand. I wonder if the storm in 1984 is the one where they were convinced it was going to be shunted off it was going to be shunted out to sea? I really wish I could find my old weather notes! I remember being in the hospital in April 1976 and the Sox opening game got cancelled due to snow, don't remember how much, I was in a drug induced fog. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted Wednesday at 06:13 PM Share Posted Wednesday at 06:13 PM The storm blows up with the polar s/w and gives SE areas good snows. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sey-Mour Snow Posted Wednesday at 06:16 PM Share Posted Wednesday at 06:16 PM 2 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: The storm blows up with the polar s/w and gives SE areas good snows. Ya the polar SW comes in after that one and blows up another smaller area of low pressure that gives snow to you guys Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
8611Blizz Posted Wednesday at 06:17 PM Share Posted Wednesday at 06:17 PM She's not going to let us out, but she did leave the door unlocked? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted Wednesday at 06:18 PM Share Posted Wednesday at 06:18 PM 1 minute ago, Sey-Mour Snow said: Ya the polar SW comes in after that one and blows up another smaller area of low pressure that gives snow to you guys Lets get that one to work for all. 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted Wednesday at 06:24 PM Share Posted Wednesday at 06:24 PM 5 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: Lets get that one to work for all. EPS snowier from the 28th into that weekend 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
iceman1 Posted Wednesday at 06:33 PM Share Posted Wednesday at 06:33 PM 4 hours ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: It already happened early last week, and it has kept the northeast very cold....the effect doesn't last forever. i just seen an update on the news 2 days ago Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
iceman1 Posted Wednesday at 06:34 PM Share Posted Wednesday at 06:34 PM Just now, iceman1 said: i just seen an update on the news 2 days ago but anyways march is a week away spring training for golf starts Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted Wednesday at 06:55 PM Share Posted Wednesday at 06:55 PM 21 minutes ago, iceman1 said: i just seen an update on the news 2 days ago Old news. It split over a week ago...about Feb 10th. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted Wednesday at 07:22 PM Share Posted Wednesday at 07:22 PM It's another failing phase ... the Euro reflects both the S/stream and the N/stream separately Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted Wednesday at 07:24 PM Share Posted Wednesday at 07:24 PM 7 hours ago, CoastalWx said: Back broke. Time to let it go. Then we’ll watch NNE get buried on the 28th while we expose grass like Ray exposes his bare breasts. Didnt age well in 12 hrs Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PWMan Posted Wednesday at 07:24 PM Share Posted Wednesday at 07:24 PM 20 hours ago, DavisStraight said: Is there ocean ice? I remember in the 05 cold snap going to the cape shore and it looked like the north pole. Some of the tidal inlets and bays are frozen over. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tamarack Posted Wednesday at 07:34 PM Share Posted Wednesday at 07:34 PM 21 hours ago, UnitedWx said: What was it 1983 or 82?? we had the surprise storm down in SNE. I remember staying up way past my bedtime to watch the 11:00 p.m. news weather reports. I still remember Hilton Kaderly showing the map with a high pressure north of New England saying it was the Rock of Gibraltar and the storm would go out to sea, woke up early the next morning to a white out. And that was the last good one for several years April 6-8, 1982. The storm had dumped on CHI on the 5th then NYC-BOS on the 6th, a true winter-type blizzard. 6th was the Yankees' home opener and at the 1 PM start time NY was 25° and falling, S+ and 6" new. By storm's end they had 9.6" (3rd biggest April snow 1869-on) and reached 21°, their coldest April snow event, by about 5°. The evening of the 6th, CAR updated the forecast by adding flurries to the cloudy, 20s and windy. I woke up about 2 AM, looked out and saw that thick gray of heavy snow. My guess at Fort Kent was 17" but the gusts near 60 rearranged things, such that the pre-storm 27" at the stake was only 25" post-storm, with drifts 5-6' within 20 feet on either side. CAR's "flurries" verified at 26.3", at the time their biggest (now 4th). In 1984 there were 2 notable snow events, with almost nobody seeing both (unless they moved). SNE down to NYC had a late month pasting while much of NNE got bombed on March 14-15. CAR reset their top storm with 29.0" (now 2nd) and we measured 26.5, most I've seen. 3 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UnitedWx Posted Wednesday at 07:35 PM Share Posted Wednesday at 07:35 PM Well I usually would not bring up a Tip vehicle warmth observation, but it's highly evident today. Driving around in the truck for work and there is no need for a jacket at all, had to pull over and take it off. Heat is turned down below 50%. Sun angle? 3 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cleetussnow Posted Wednesday at 08:20 PM Share Posted Wednesday at 08:20 PM 2 hours ago, Typhoon Tip said: I applaud the Euro for detecting ... ... this season's achievement in snowing the least plausible amount relative to any physical circumstance is finally being modeled by one of these damn things. The 28th signal on this run has a coastal running up with an impressive nor'easter signaled, yet nothing happens on the west side of the cyclone the entire way up the coast. that's a neat trick... but then again, I don't put anything past this season at this point. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Torch Tiger Posted Wednesday at 08:32 PM Author Share Posted Wednesday at 08:32 PM 3 hours ago, Kitz Craver said: She’s not gonna let us out cancel? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DavisStraight Posted Wednesday at 09:46 PM Share Posted Wednesday at 09:46 PM 2 hours ago, UnitedWx said: Well I usually would not bring up a Tip vehicle warmth observation, but it's highly evident today. Driving around in the truck for work and there is no need for a jacket at all, had to pull over and take it off. Heat is turned down below 50%. Sun angle? I did the same, was sweating with my coat on the heat turned off so took it off. We passed Tips sun heat day last week, could start tomatoes in my car in the sun. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ineedsnow Posted Wednesday at 10:35 PM Share Posted Wednesday at 10:35 PM 18z GFS a little closer with that Monday night deal 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chrisrotary12 Posted Wednesday at 10:54 PM Share Posted Wednesday at 10:54 PM Sun doing it job today. We melt. Epic ice dams 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted Wednesday at 10:58 PM Share Posted Wednesday at 10:58 PM Gotta love Norfolk and Raleigh pounding snow today. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWolf Posted Wednesday at 11:17 PM Share Posted Wednesday at 11:17 PM 4 hours ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: Old news. It split over a week ago...about Feb 10th. Doesn’t it take longer than 10 days to actually see any results though…? Usually a two week plus lag no? If we are seeing the effects from the Feb 10th split this week, that would be a pretty darn fast turn around time(like 5-6 days). Just remember reading that it takes a good amount of lag time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWolf Posted Wednesday at 11:21 PM Share Posted Wednesday at 11:21 PM 23 minutes ago, Chrisrotary12 said: Sun doing it job today. We melt. Epic ice dams Wow, I drove home from way up north….And came through all of Maine, into S. NH and into Mass and CT, and I didn’t see anything at all melting anywhere. Still that glistening frozen top on the snow fully intact. Temps below freezing the whole way home. But that’s just what I observed on a 550 mile drive. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWolf Posted Wednesday at 11:22 PM Share Posted Wednesday at 11:22 PM 5 hours ago, CoastalWx said: Lets get that one to work for all. What is this you guys are speaking of? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UnitedWx Posted Wednesday at 11:34 PM Share Posted Wednesday at 11:34 PM 12 minutes ago, WinterWolf said: Wow, I drove home from way up north….And came through all of Maine, into S. NH and into Mass and CT, and I didn’t see anything at all melting anywhere. Still that glistening frozen top on the snow fully intact. Temps below freezing the whole way home. But that’s just what I observed on a 550 mile drive. Just enough in my areas to have the heavy equipment scrape side roads all day... and warm the cab. One thing I HATE is driving with a jacket on. High of 28 in Westfield today, felt like 48! 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Create an account or sign in to comment
You need to be a member in order to leave a comment
Create an account
Sign up for a new account in our community. It's easy!
Register a new accountSign in
Already have an account? Sign in here.
Sign In Now