February 2025 Disco/Obs Thread

[RUNNAWAYICEBERG]

1 hour ago, Sey-Mour Snow said:

The difference in euro and gfs is astounding, euro after this week is mild and pleasant 45-50 sunny , gfs deep deep winter next 15 days.. 

both gefs and eps hold onto “winter” though through first week of march. We’ll get a tiny event or there just enough to tease but not enough to please. 

[40/70 Benchmark]

3 minutes ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said:

both gefs and eps hold onto “winter” though through first week of march. We’ll get a tiny event or there just enough to tease but not enough to please. 

This entire winter has been like the end of a 8th grade date.

[CoastalWx]

23 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

You all in on Euro?

Why not 

[mahk_webstah]

33 minutes ago, dendrite said:

2.8°

I’ve had enough. Let me out. 

Every year around this time…go big or be done

[kdxken]

33 minutes ago, dendrite said:

2.8°

I’ve had enough. Let me out. 

Coldest winter in your lifetime. Mark told you but you just wouldn't listen...

[CoastalWx]

4 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

This entire winter has been like the end of a 8th grade date.

Awkward and uncomfortable 

[CoastalWx]

EPS is AN all next week. We’ll see if we reload in early March. The Plains sure will.

[Typhoon Tip]

21 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

EPS is AN all next week. We’ll see if we reload in early March. The Plains sure will.

-EPO reload in both the tele's, and the spatial handling of the synoptics. 

The PNA is different this time.  It's -PNA.   That's changes that map a little...

 

[CoastalWx]

15 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said:

-EPO reload in both the tele's, and the spatial handling of the synoptics. 

The PNA is different this time.  It's -PNA.   That's changes that map a little...

 

I expect a fully aggravating pattern of messy and possibly wet storms and then stupid useless cold as they depart. I’ll wait for it to prove me wrong.

[CoastalWx]

Hopefully more pictures of mountain side snow stakes and snow mobile trails.

[iceman1]

whats with this polar vortex split i keep hearing about plunging south keeping the northeast very cold yet all tv Mets calling for a warmup into the 40s.

 

 

[40/70 Benchmark]

5 minutes ago, iceman1 said:

whats with this polar vortex split i keep hearing about plunging south keeping the northeast very cold yet all tv Mets calling for a warmup into the 40s.

 

 

It already happened early last week, and it has kept the northeast very cold....the effect doesn't last forever.

[40/70 Benchmark]

12 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

I expect a fully aggravating pattern of messy and possibly wet storms and then stupid useless cold as they depart. I’ll wait for it to prove me wrong.

Yea, I expect 2/28 to be a mess, but probably with a worse antecedent airmass to this past weekend.

[jbenedet]

Run with the EPS guidance; sell the GEFS. 

Seeing MJO to phase 1 within a few days across all reliable guidance, and a likely stall here. Phase 1 is high probs AN in the northeast in February…This is especially the case close to the coast. WAR flex incoming.

The GEFS guidance for the NAO/AO teleconnections is also indicating AN is arriving by this weekend…spikes in both indices…

Next storms we will very likely be on the warm side of; I’m really hoping this comes with some gradualness or we risk flooding.

[dendrite]

18 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

Hopefully more pictures of mountain side snow stakes and snow mobile trails.

I’m ready for some loose granular. 

[Typhoon Tip]

7 minutes ago, jbenedet said:

Run with the EPS guidance; sell the GEFS. 

Seeing MJO to phase 1 within a few days across all reliable guidance, and a likely stall here. Phase 1 is high probs AN in the northeast in February…This is especially the case close to the coast. WAR flex incoming.

The GEFS guidance for the NAO/AO teleconnections is also indicating AN is arriving by this weekend…spikes in both indices…

Next storms we will very likely be on the warm side of; I’m really hoping this comes with some gradualness or we risk flooding.

Really?  Do you have another source than CPC, below.   This is the 3-month tendencies so ...maybe pulling Feb out the three shows something else, but "high probability" doesn't quite sense right either

[40/70 Benchmark]

4 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said:

Really?  Do you have another source than CPC, below.   This is the 3-month tendencies so ...maybe pulling Feb out the three shows something else, but "high probability" doesn't quite sense right either

This is from the JMA site, which is derived from a larger sample size of data..kind of neutral:

[40/70 Benchmark]

This supports his point more, but these use a smaller sample size, so I would defer to the JMA version when there is conflict.

[CoastalWx]

Phase 1 in Feb isn't typically warm. 

[40/70 Benchmark]

Just now, CoastalWx said:

Phase 1 in Feb isn't typically warm. 

Agree...not frigid, either.....warm up close to climo or just above makes sense.

[tamarack]

3 hours ago, kdxken said:

Friend of mine in Montana. The West is weird in the spring. Minus 23 to 40s and '50s. 

 

 

Not just the West.  Here's a week in Fort Kent less than 3 months after we moved (on Jan 1, 1976) into an apartment there, near the St. John:
3/19   24   -25    T    0.2
3/20   50    19    T     T      75° rise in 32 hours
3/21    53   38  0.30
3/22   40    5     T    0.1
3/23   34   -7    T      T     60° drop in 40 hours,
3/24   52   20  0.10  0.8   and . . . back up 59 in another 34 hours.
3/25   52   35    T     T

from TT:
Mt. Snow is very far south, it's not very high, it's March, and any hugger/cutter + sun angle is going to really roast them. Overall pattern that I see (12z gfs ensemble, indv members) for that period looks somewhat dicey too 

I guess 3,600 asl isn't very high.  And most slopes there face east.

[jbenedet]

24 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said:

Really?  Do you have another source than CPC, below.   This is the 3-month tendencies so ...maybe pulling Feb out the three shows something else, but "high probability" doesn't quite sense right either

I am using FMA, especially as we will be into late February at this timeframe.

Probability isn’t high, so I amend that statement—more like better than equal odds of AN but high significance… 

Fits with @CoastalWx narrative of warm sectoring with storms and useless cold behind.

I’m seeing similar. The AN’s in the warm sector will be widespread and much bigger than the BN’s behind…

 

 

[40/70 Benchmark]

Some preliminary thoughts on next week...nothing new.

https://easternmassweather.blogspot.com/2025/02/thursday-storm-threat-by-wayside-as.html

[jbenedet]

There is less than a week left in February by this weekend guys…when MJO settles in phase 1…The sun is as predictable as it gets in this space—I’ll go with March vs February here…

I’d check myself if the teles were saying otherwise, but as I stated above they are saying the same thing…

[Sey-Mour Snow]

6 minutes ago, jbenedet said:

There is less than a week left in February by this weekend guys…when MJO settles in phase 1…The sun is as predictable as it gets in this space—I’ll go with March vs February here…

I’d check myself if the teles were saying otherwise, but as I stated above they are saying the same thing…

Makes sense, just odd to see GEFS and EPS in agreement on a massive -EPO with cold dumping into the East in late Feb early March, so that gives pause 

[CoastalWx]

4 minutes ago, Sey-Mour Snow said:

Makes sense, just odd to see GEFS and EPS in agreement on a massive -EPO with cold dumping into the East in late Feb early March, so that gives pause 

I think there is a cold risk then. I just mean next week looks AN.

[Sey-Mour Snow]

3 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

I think there is a cold risk then. I just mean next week looks AN.

Ya that’s where the differences lie, GFS op is normal to below while euro is normal to above.. depends on tracks of the clippers and the larger storm next Friday. 

[Typhoon Tip]

This is for after March 1

well, ... like I said,   the -EPO/-PNA applies a different correlative pattern, compared to a -EPO underpinned by a low frequency +PNA state. 

If using just the teleconnector correlations:

The former is the west loaded cold, east warm up scenario.

The latter is a oscillatory cold pattern in a more sustained BL, one that is then occasionally stung by modified frigid pulses - this particular winter's version.  

... As an aside, you'd think that option B is the better snow storm producer - in principle, you'd be correct... However, this compression issue, which I feel is being enhanced by CC and attribution ... is creating a circumstance where in order to sustain an option B, there is destructive interference related to compression/speed mechanics.  Cold is causing it because it just improving gradient whenever it exerts into middle latitudes...

Anyway, the larger synoptic hemisphere cinemas of the ens means, don't look warm anywhere frankly.  So this is one of those situations where math says we actively start seeing recovery in the east, while the placement of major features in the synoptic overviews do not. 

I'm not totally sure which way to go there.  One of the other may move toward one or the other.  50/50.

In the meantime, nothing backs the concept of early 70s in D.C. like this,

 

[Typhoon Tip]

All complexity aside ... there is a present tendency to slip back into the exact same persistence the caused this oddball anomaly distribution below...

(granted that's just January, but ...mm fuck me if Feb isn't the same.  We'll see - )

In fact, if you look at the EPS mean in the previous post and map it over this, the pattern of the EPS going into and thru the first week of March, fits this temperature distribution ideally...

That all argues for persistence of Jan/Feb to continue rollin' on.  

The trick is, when does persistence break?   At some point in will... I mean in a snarky sense,   July is still going to happen so this bs enable cold fan-base to bury their heads in it can't go on forever. LOL.  

[Great Snow 1717]

2 hours ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

This entire winter has been like the end of a 8th grade date.

....snowfall is below normal BUT this has been a much better winter than the last several winters.  Is this my ideal winter?-no it is not, but I'll take this winter over the last several winters.