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February 2025 Disco/Obs Thread


Torch Tiger
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4 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

I have 1" more than I did last year at this time.

When would you normally expect to hit 50%? Are you thinking it should be roughly half way through met winter or half way through the longer "snow season"? I was trying to think about it for my location but I'm definitely not a JSpin numbers type guy.

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Just now, TauntonBlizzard2013 said:

The only redeeming quality about this winter is that it should be over sooner rather than later, and I truly mean that.

I’m selling an early spring. Don’t really see anything on guidance that supports warmth in the first half of March. Maybe it’s wrong though. 

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16 minutes ago, mreaves said:

When would you normally expect to hit 50%? Are you thinking it should be roughly half way through met winter or half way through the longer "snow season"? I was trying to think about it for my location but I'm definitely not a JSpin numbers type guy.

I'm sure it varies, but a quick glance at a few stations and for interior SNE and CNE were something like 65-75% into the snow season

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22 minutes ago, Ginx snewx said:

Amazing feel difference. I agree with Kevin having cover makes a lot of difference.  Looking forward to a Tipperary subsume from the clipper pattern emerging 

Yea, last year didn't have a month like this and they feel dramtically different.

Agree....that said, my max depth was greater last year.

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Snowfall aside, it has felt like winter for 3 winter months and I have the most seasonal snowfall of the past 3 winters. If I had no clue what the snowfall averages were and I didn't stare at weather models all day I would think this was a pretty decent year. I would be at average snowfall if I was still living in SE PA. On that note, I wouldnlove to thaw the glacier in my yard, dangerous to even take the dog outside...let alone kids play on it

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48 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

I’m selling an early spring. Don’t really see anything on guidance that supports warmth in the first half of March. Maybe it’s wrong though. 

Definitely looks shaky to me as of this morning...  There's a new -EPO flex out there in the GEFs mean, that the EPS has been reluctant to see for whatever reason.   This regards the period(s) after 3/1 ...

The GEFs have been performing remarkably well with that particular factor, all year.  Each one that it detected in this two week window has actually verified pretty damn well.   There's just one difference this time - which I'm not sure of... The WPO is not a part of this particular new decline in the index.   Priors had the advantage of an ongoing negative WPO.  Such that every time the EPO was projected to rise positive, the WPO's persistence in negative during was a red flag.   Those two are tightly correlated given some lag - a lag that makes sense given that the WPO is west of the EPO in domain coverage .. and so on.    SO, I have seen charlie brown EPO index forecasts in the past by the GEFs too.  And since attacking clad forecaster projection efforts appears to be an intangible storm this season ( LOL ) this would be a perfect opportunity for the GEFs to set up another "gale."

The entire sensitivity to warming up in March - other than sun and seasonal .. - is related to the EPO sourcing from what I am seeing.  If we remove that, we will recover.  In fact, there's already operational signals that the deeper cold thickness may relax next week from 40N and lower over the continent, and the nearer term rise in the EPO is red handed.

 

By the way, the EPS has a signal for the 28ths.    Both the GEFs and the EPS have a "bump" in the PNA, despite the GEFs not being quite as interested in manifesting an actual event.  But seeing as both have a signal in their respective telecons, there's plenty of time for the the GEFs to emerge one.   

 

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I have a question for the storm vs dates folk.

... is there a list of of dates out of the NDJFM months that did not have a snow storm?   - and 2" of snow is not a storm in that question.  In fact, any such list of orphaned dates is less than 6"    obviously, the first couple of weeks of N and the last couple of weeks of M in that list we would be likely to find some ...so it's more for DJF.

 

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1 hour ago, mreaves said:

When would you normally expect to hit 50%? Are you thinking it should be roughly half way through met winter or half way through the longer "snow season"? I was trying to think about it for my location but I'm definitely not a JSpin numbers type guy.

After 26 winters, thru 2023-24, our 89" average is evenly split - 44.5" thru Jan 31 and 44.5" Feb 1 on.  Some winters are wildly different:  2005-06 (a ratter) had 85% by Jan 31, while the next year had only 19% by then, thanks mainly by a record-shattering April.  Current medians are slightly apart - 44.8/43.9.

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11 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said:

I have a question for the storm vs dates folk.

... is there a list of of dates out of the NDJFM months that did not have a snow storm?   - and 2" of snow is not a storm in that question.  In fact, any such list of orphaned dates is less than 6"    obviously, the first couple of weeks of N and the last couple of weeks of M in that list we would be likely to find some ...so it's more for DJF.

 

Late February is definitely a weak spot on storm climo. ORH has daily records for snowfall in the single digits for the last few days of February. I always found that fascinating since early March has had so many blockbusters. It’s even somewhat weak going back to about 2/20ish…you really only have 2 or 3 biggies over the record during that 8-9 day period…the biggest being the famous Feb ‘69 100 hour storm. 

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11 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

Late February is definitely a weak spot on storm climo. ORH has daily records for snowfall in the single digits for the last few days of February. I always found that fascinating since early March has had so many blockbusters. It’s even somewhat weak going back to about 2/20ish…you really only have 2 or 3 biggies over the record during that 8-9 day period…the biggest being the famous Feb ‘69 100 hour storm. 

exactly what I thought.  and that is interesting -

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1 hour ago, Typhoon Tip said:

I have a question for the storm vs dates folk.

... is there a list of of dates out of the NDJFM months that did not have a snow storm?   - and 2" of snow is not a storm in that question.  In fact, any such list of orphaned dates is less than 6"    obviously, the first couple of weeks of N and the last couple of weeks of M in that list we would be likely to find some ...so it's more for DJF.

 

The long-term (but sadly, no longer) reporting at the Farmington co-op recorded from Jan 1, 1893 thru May 2022, with the LT annual snowfall of 90".
           T(or zero)   Dates <6"
NOV     none           13 (only 2, 12 thru 30, lowest 1")
DEC     none             3  (13th, 19th, 22nd, lowest 4")
JAN                        none (lowest, 7" on 22nd)
FEB                        none (lowest 6", 3rd - twice)
MAR      none           4 (only 1,  1 thru 24, lowest 4")
APR        1                 10 (none 1 thru 15)

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1 hour ago, NW_of_GYX said:

Icon is interesting with the clipper/redeveloper Tuesday-Wednesday, other models have it as well. Something to keep an eye on. Models offering less eye candy than earlier this month but certainly plenty to track during this next period. 

Honestly, we need less eye candy and just continued production. I can live with 2-4, 3-5” events every few days that build on the current glacier. Although reaching climo is probably lost to some of us, I don’t think wintry events are done in SNE. 

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16 minutes ago, WxWatcher007 said:

Honestly, we need less eye candy and just continued production. I can live with 2-4, 3-5” events every few days that build on the current glacier. Although reaching climo is probably lost to some of us, I don’t think wintry events are done in SNE. 

I would agree with you on this. 

As far icon, I don't understand why we use that at all. When has it ever been correct. It usually follows the large big guys like the GFS or Euro, but I would never use the icon as something to look forward to. 

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