CoastalWx Posted February 14 Share Posted February 14 There’s other chances too after next week. Then we’ll see what happens. EPS kills the ridging out west which would spell Morch. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted February 14 Share Posted February 14 Head fakes. Ride skynet. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted February 14 Share Posted February 14 On 2/14/2025 at 12:45 PM, CoastalWx said: I mean to me it’s just another model. I haven’t noticed at least in this area how it’s done. I feel like lately. It’s been too cold and a little too far offshore with these systems. Expand It’s has been good picking up trends with systems inside 5 days. It didn’t do great with the DCA 6+ event a few days ago. I believe it had .10 of precipitation 24 hours before the event. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted February 14 Share Posted February 14 On 2/14/2025 at 12:50 PM, CoastalWx said: There’s other chances too after next week. Then we’ll see what happens. EPS kills the ridging out west which would spell Morch. Expand I'm really going to want to turn the page if next week doesn't work....not sure I want any more "chances".....hopefully the pattern flips in March and I can check out. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted February 14 Share Posted February 14 On 2/14/2025 at 4:18 AM, brooklynwx99 said: massive change on the GFS Expand UKMET was interesting Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted February 14 Share Posted February 14 On 2/14/2025 at 12:51 PM, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said: Head fakes. Ride skynet. Expand I've waited to blog about this threat, despite the ceiling, for a reason...part of me still feels like I may never need to bother. I'll decide this weekend whether to do a write-off piece, or a preliminary threat assessment type. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sey-Mour Snow Posted February 14 Share Posted February 14 On 2/14/2025 at 12:51 PM, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said: Head fakes. Ride skynet. Expand Sick of the head fakes, if we get several runs in a row like this and on Sunday we still look good, we can let the weenies back out, until then we Nancy 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted February 14 Share Posted February 14 As much as the prospect of 2' in central Virginia intrigues me, my nose needs picking, so there are other worthwhile endeavors. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted February 14 Share Posted February 14 On 2/14/2025 at 12:55 PM, 40/70 Benchmark said: I've waited to blog about this threat, despite the ceiling, for a reason...part of me still feels like I may never need to bother. I'll decide this weekend whether to do a write-off piece, or a preliminary threat assessment type. Expand One good runs then it shifts se in the next cycle. Typical one step forward two step backwards. I’m very skeptical of the Phase happy solutions. Not trying to be a debbie, just keeping it real until atmospheric confidence increases. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 14 Share Posted February 14 Let’s get DC a 40” winter and BOS 25”. 1 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chrisrotary12 Posted February 14 Share Posted February 14 On 2/14/2025 at 12:40 PM, 512high said: 515am it was gusty...FWIW Expand That must have been it because I was in with my 2 yr old and woke up and instinctively reached over to cover her. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted February 14 Share Posted February 14 On 2/14/2025 at 1:00 PM, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said: One good runs then it shifts se in the next cycle. Typical one step forward two step backwards. I’m very skeptical of the Phase happy solutions. Not trying to be a debbie, just keeping it real until atmospheric confidence increases. Expand I'm not skeptical of the storm....I'm skeptical that we get impacted to a large degree. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted February 14 Share Posted February 14 On 2/14/2025 at 1:00 PM, CoastalWx said: Let’s get DC a 40” winter and BOS 25”. Expand EURO would have Virginia with more snow on the season than I have. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TalcottWx Posted February 14 Share Posted February 14 Great light snow about an hour ago. Patchy black ice after yesterday's rain. Our snow pack has become glacier-like after the recent storms. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 14 Share Posted February 14 On 2/14/2025 at 1:03 PM, 40/70 Benchmark said: EURO would have Virginia with more snow on the season than I have. Expand Imagine that? Lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 14 Share Posted February 14 On 2/14/2025 at 1:03 PM, TalcottWx said: Great light snow about an hour ago. Patchy black ice after yesterday's rain. Our snow pack has become glacier-like after the recent storms. Expand Simsbury snowier than Tolland? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tavwtby Posted February 14 Share Posted February 14 been ripping here from the tail end of that streamer.. about .25" of lake effect fluff, and beautiful dendies. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UnitedWx Posted February 14 Share Posted February 14 On 2/14/2025 at 12:19 PM, snowman19 said: Don’t worry I’m sure it’s going to cave. But in fairness, everyone has absolutely been in love with that model up until this point lol Expand Mark me safe from being in love with it! It certainly hasn't been any better than any other guidance we have! Squall in Simsbury at the moment, driveway quickly covered. Buddy says it's a whiteout coming down the hill from Colebrook Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UnitedWx Posted February 14 Share Posted February 14 On 2/14/2025 at 1:04 PM, CoastalWx said: Simsbury snowier than Tolland? Expand Certainly is! Driveway covered with this squall Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted February 14 Share Posted February 14 Those are some anomalies in the south-central Plains next week...high temps 40 to 45°F below average Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted February 14 Share Posted February 14 On 2/14/2025 at 1:02 PM, 40/70 Benchmark said: I'm not skeptical of the storm....I'm skeptical that we get impacted to a large degree. Expand Yes agree. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NeonPeon Posted February 14 Share Posted February 14 On 2/14/2025 at 1:03 PM, 40/70 Benchmark said: EURO would have Virginia with more snow on the season than I have. Expand New Orleans got more snow in one day than I've had this season to date. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted February 14 Share Posted February 14 On 2/14/2025 at 1:04 PM, CoastalWx said: Imagine that? Lol. Expand I can, actually....I have been drawing parallels to 1979-1980 since mid January. That is my futility season and it wasn't warm, either. Awful match in AK, so its not a perfect analog by any stretch, but some similarities in the east. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tavwtby Posted February 14 Share Posted February 14 man, this parallels the best snow I've seen all winter... 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 14 Share Posted February 14 On 2/14/2025 at 1:15 PM, 40/70 Benchmark said: I can, actually....I have been drawing parallels to 1979-1980 since mid January. That is my futility season and it wasn't warm, either. Awful match in AK, so its not a perfect analog by any stretch, but some similarities in the east. Expand Yeah, I know. It’s funny despite this winter looking like winter more than I can recall in sometime, I still have this void. I’m still getting bent over in various ways. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted February 14 Share Posted February 14 06z AI continues to be well southeast for the 20th Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted February 14 Share Posted February 14 On 2/14/2025 at 12:50 PM, CoastalWx said: There’s other chances too after next week. Then we’ll see what happens. EPS kills the ridging out west which would spell Morch. Expand the Euro telecon correlations, when then adding attribution ... is a 70+ F implication by and post Mar 10 the GFS would be too... but it has a subtle sag in the EPO around the 3rd to the 7th... it's not clear if that is really going to be another NE Pac bully or if it fades - we're getting into extended ranges by then that obviously present typically lower confidence. Other than that one concern, everything else from the GEFs derivates might also imply 70+ F by Mar 10. just sayn' not forecasting. it is what it is. But, we have to get through a less compressed, +PNA between the 20th and the end of the month, first... Obviously we have this one on the 20th, which too much time is being spent on individual model's butt bonings and not enough on the fact that the trend was enormous. Then the 25th has been all or nothing. Either the given model has a 970 juggernaut, or it's partly sunny on the next run. So we'll see if that one has legs. Both are a part of a slowly relaxing compression, whilst the PNA flips mode from neg to positive. If/when one emerges more likely with the 25th, that one has the most torpid background and thus slower moving/time to develop "in time" plausibility in my mind. The 20th is a real storm problem. It's going to be on the map; the uncertainty isn't whether a storm is real, the sensitivity as far as I'm observing ( fwiw...) is tightly connected to phase proficiency. Those guidance that suggest more of it, end up more meaningfully impacting/W solutions. It's really attempting a subsume phase type ( 1978 is a spectacular course work on what that cinema looks like - not saying so as an analog in this case ), but there's still a bit of compression and speed bias lingering - mainly because the western heights are not canonical. The wave spacing is being lengthened - you can see it how a partial phase in these guidance is then causing the SPV (N/stream vortex part) to spaghettify toward the E... It's like it grabs the S/stream and then gets it's arms ripped off ... 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DJln491 Posted February 14 Share Posted February 14 festive flakes falling in W. Hartford. quick coating Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted February 14 Share Posted February 14 New thread 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted February 14 Share Posted February 14 On 2/14/2025 at 1:47 PM, Typhoon Tip said: the Euro telecon correlations, when then adding attribution ... is a 70+ F implication by and post Mar 10 the GFS would be too... but it has a subtle sag in the EPO around the 3rd to the 7th... it's not clear if that is really going to be another NE Pac bully or if it fades - we're getting into extended ranges by then that obviously present typically lower confidence. Other than that one concern, everything thing else from the GEFs derivates would also implication for 70+ F by Mar 10. just sayn' not forecasting. it is what it is. But, we have to get through a less compressed, +PNA between the 20th and the end of the month, first... Obviously we have this one on the 20th, which too much time is being spent on individual model's butt bonings and not enough on the fact that the trend was enormous. Then the 25th has been all or nothing. Either model has a 970 juggernaut, or it's partly sunny on the next run. So we'll see if that one has legs. Both are a part of a slowly relaxing compression, whilst the PNA flips mode from neg to positive. If/when one emerges more likely with the 25th, that one has the most torpid background and thus slower moving/time to develop "in time" plausibility in my mind. The 20th is a real storm problem. It's going to be on the map; the uncertainty isn't whether a storm is real, the sensitivity as far as I'm observing ( fwiw...) is tightly connected to phase proficiency. Those guidance that suggest more of it, end up more meaningfully impacting/W solutions. It's really attempting a subsume phase type ( 1978 is a spectacular course work on what that cinema looks like - not saying so as an analog in this case ), but there's still a bit of compression and speed bias lingering - mainly because the western heights are not canonical. The wave spacing is being lengthened - you can see it how a partial phase in these guidance is then causing the SPV (N/stream vortex part) to spaghettify toward the E... It's like it grabs the S/stream and then gets it's arms ripped off ... Expand This is why there is time being spent on butt-banging solitions because there is a pathway to that, as you have referenced, and this season has seemed to seek out said path at least excuse imaginable. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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