40/70 Benchmark Posted February 13 Share Posted February 13 1 minute ago, George001 said: A couple days ago you were feeling good about the 20th, what happened? Did the western ridge trend worse on guidance? I realized that the pattern out west looks similar to other failed attempts....I fell for it back in January, and started to here. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted February 13 Share Posted February 13 Just now, WinterWolf said: He doesn’t want to say it’s coming again..And then get the rug pulled again on the next run..I don’t blame him. Eh...more to it than that, but sort of. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
George001 Posted February 13 Share Posted February 13 11 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: I realized that the pattern out west looks similar to other failed attempts....I fell for it back in January, and started to here. That makes sense, I would agree that the setup looks similar to the Jan 11th disaster. For me it’s still worth tracking though, although the probability of actually phasing is low this is a high ceiling setup IF we get one. Hopefully we can get something to break our way in a non ideal setup. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWolf Posted February 13 Share Posted February 13 2 minutes ago, George001 said: That makes sense, I would agree that the setup looks similar to the Jan 11th disaster. For me it’s still worth tracking though, although the probability of actually phasing is low this is a high ceiling setup IF we get one. Hopefully we can get something to break our way in a non ideal setup. Yes, Definitely worth tracking. If something is a miss(on long wave pattern) at 7 days out..all bets are off. But assuming it’s not..then another Miss or nuisance at best. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
George001 Posted February 13 Share Posted February 13 That said…. Im not losing my sleep and staying up for the 6z runs unless i see cross guidance agreement on a blizzard. This hobby is fun but im not fucking up my sleep schedule tracking something that most likely is a ghost. 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted February 13 Share Posted February 13 Get ready 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWolf Posted February 13 Share Posted February 13 2 minutes ago, MJO812 said: Get ready He’s another hypster…lol. What a joke. Click bait. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kitz Craver Posted February 13 Share Posted February 13 5 minutes ago, MJO812 said: Get ready Pretty, pretty colors 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
apm Posted February 13 Share Posted February 13 25 minutes ago, WinterWolf said: He’s another hypster…lol. What a joke. Click bait. Does say just 1 in 4 chance... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxWatcher007 Posted February 13 Share Posted February 13 Yeah I’m getting ready like I’m getting ready to go apple picking with my wife in the middle of football season. Please. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted February 13 Share Posted February 13 14 minutes ago, apm said: Does say just 1 in 4 chance... That is the point, though..TBH, I think his odds are reasonable, but there was no need for that clickbait post yet. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ineedsnow Posted February 13 Share Posted February 13 12z ICON 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ma blizzard Posted February 13 Share Posted February 13 29 minutes ago, ineedsnow said: 12z ICON if only we could see 1 more panel 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 13 Share Posted February 13 42 minutes ago, ineedsnow said: 12z ICON 12z GFS 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Great Snow 1717 Posted February 13 Share Posted February 13 1 hour ago, MJO812 said: Get ready wow a whooping 25 % chance... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted February 13 Share Posted February 13 5 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: 12z GFS CLose call though Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 13 Share Posted February 13 1 minute ago, ORH_wxman said: CLose call though So many moving parts. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mahk_webstah Posted February 13 Share Posted February 13 Gefs give any hint? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
apm Posted February 13 Share Posted February 13 5 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said: CLose call though Especially when the Euro (0Z run) has it much closer. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SJonesWX Posted February 13 Share Posted February 13 1 hour ago, MJO812 said: Get ready 1’ is a mega blizzard? WTF Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
superETA Posted February 13 Share Posted February 13 3 hours ago, Typhoon Tip said: Heights over western N/A are the challenge. This situation leading and during the 20th needs that component to improve, otherwise this will be another enhanced modeling challenge over the week with both spatial-temporal aspect, and just spacial synoptic interference issues. It's a bit frustrating because from what I am seeing, the basal hemisphere is a little less compressed ( less is definitely better! ). You can see in the 00z 500 mb height cinema of all three, Euro/CMC/GFS, how the SPV fragment really tries to tuck into the S/stream, but because the flow geometry lacks that meridian restoring ( better ridge west --> constructive depth feedback in the east), the situation ends up stretched looking with the triggered cyclone escaping ENE in the CMC/GFS. The only real difference between the Euro and these misses is the Euro actually gets the thread through the needle's eye on 00z stab. But again ... the flow overall is -d(gradient), and so if a ridge were to materialize over the west, that whole downstream situation would be slower/more proficiency compared to these bottle rocket smear troughs of the last month Very new to meteorology and forecasting, so I could be way off here, but based on the latest NWS Palisades storm discussion (via LOX NWS), I’m not seeing much of a strong western ridge signal that would slow down and organize our storm in the Northeast: Quote All systems are go for the largest storm of the season. Satellite shows a well developed storm system with a sfc low (~982 mb) located a couple hundred miles to the west of the CA/OR border. There is a well developed warm and cold front with the system both of which are far enough south to affect all of the fcst area. Warm frontal rain is currently over the Central Coast. This steady lgt-ocnl mdt rain will overspread the entire area by dawn or a hour or two after. By the time the cold front enters the Central Coast (early afternoon) rainfall totals will be near an inch and half over the flatter portions and double those amounts along the coast facing slopes. The warm advection within the front will lift snow levels to 7500+ ft. The cold front now looks more dynamic and unstable with a favorable jet energy and location. This has increased the likelihood of TSTM just in front of and with the front. The chc of TSTMs is now 30 percent during the 3 hour period of the cold front`s influence. The jet is will push the front along a little faster and this may result in a little less rain than forecast. So from what I can tell, there’s some ridging out west, but not enough to really change the downstream setup for the NE. That might be why CMC/GFS keep showing the storm getting stretched and ejecting too quickly instead of digging in. The Euro seems to handle the SPV-southern stream interaction better, but with the overall -d(gradient) flow, it still looks like another fast-moving, messy system unless something shifts. Does that sound right? Or is the CA forecast way too far west and early to affect what's going on over here next week? Still trying to get a feel for how these setups evolve. Thanks Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cleetussnow Posted February 13 Share Posted February 13 Meh. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted February 13 Share Posted February 13 Skynet knows. She gone. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cleetussnow Posted February 13 Share Posted February 13 4 minutes ago, superETA said: Very new to meteorology and forecasting, so I could be way off here, but based on the latest NWS Palisades storm discussion (via LOX NWS), I’m not seeing much of a strong western ridge signal that would slow down and organize our storm in the Northeast: So from what I can tell, there’s some ridging out west, but not enough to really change the downstream setup for the NE. That might be why CMC/GFS keep showing the storm getting stretched and ejecting too quickly instead of digging in. The Euro seems to handle the SPV-southern stream interaction better, but with the overall -d(gradient) flow, it still looks like another fast-moving, messy system unless something shifts. Does that sound right? Or is the CA forecast way too far west and early to affect what's going on over here next week? Still trying to get a feel for how these setups evolve. Thanks 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kitz Craver Posted February 13 Share Posted February 13 We can’t have nice things this winter. It’s a ghost that will disappear on approach Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWolf Posted February 13 Share Posted February 13 2 minutes ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said: Skynet knows. She gone. Yup…give it a casual glimpse every day or so being it’s a week away..but hedge with a whiff. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 13 Share Posted February 13 I guess the good news is that this thing is not over Bermuda and now we're hoping for it to come NW. It's a workable distance from SNE. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Great Snow 1717 Posted February 13 Share Posted February 13 11 minutes ago, SJonesWX said: 1’ is a mega blizzard? WTF in the page hits world it is... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted February 13 Share Posted February 13 23 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said: CLose call though It's always close....they never track over Hispanola. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HIPPYVALLEY Posted February 13 Share Posted February 13 23 minutes ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said: Skynet knows. She gone. Was she ever really there at all? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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