Damage In Tolland Posted February 13 Share Posted February 13 On 2/13/2025 at 12:48 AM, ineedsnow said: ya but if it pouring didn't a bunch just run off? Expand If there’s wind no. That storm had a stout NE wind which helped the huge accretion 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted February 13 Share Posted February 13 On 2/13/2025 at 12:46 AM, Damage In Tolland said: For a mean to show that much ice should open eyes. It’s basically showing a damaging event . It probably will change, but that run is grid damage Expand Not that long ago the eps and gefs means also showed sne and cne buried under many feet of snow by the end of this week… 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DomNH Posted February 13 Share Posted February 13 On 2/13/2025 at 12:48 AM, ineedsnow said: ya but if it pouring didn't a bunch just run off? Expand A ton did run off. If 3'' of QPF accreted efficiently we might still be in the dark. 1 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ineedsnow Posted February 13 Share Posted February 13 Euro mean also has 30 mph gust.. even if we got a half inch of ice that would cause problems Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted February 13 Share Posted February 13 On 2/13/2025 at 12:45 AM, CoastalWx said: We cry Expand I know ha, it’s tough giving observations when the forum is split like this. But it’s what’s happening. Aiming for more of an observational approach than a gloat. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted February 13 Share Posted February 13 On 2/13/2025 at 12:50 AM, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said: Not that long ago the eps and gefs means also showed sne and cne buried under many feet of snow by the end of this week… Expand That was a week -10 days out. Not 48-60 hours Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted February 13 Share Posted February 13 On 2/13/2025 at 12:46 AM, Damage In Tolland said: For a mean to show that much ice should open eyes. It’s basically showing a damaging event . It probably will change, but that run is grid damage Expand No, Kevin, the run is showing .6 to .7” accretion and not as much over lower elevations. That interpretation just means that there’s some members that have more but that also means there’s are members that have less. But people seem to lean on the idea of some members being more and thinking that it’s some kind of ominous implication, but that’s never been true. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted February 13 Share Posted February 13 On 2/13/2025 at 12:51 AM, ineedsnow said: Euro mean also has 30 mph gust.. even if we got a half inch of ice that would cause problems Expand Jesus one way or another you’re gonna get your drama dose out of this huh? 7 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 13 Share Posted February 13 On 2/13/2025 at 12:51 AM, powderfreak said: I know ha, it’s tough giving observations when the forum is split like this. But it’s what’s happening. Aiming for more of an observational approach than a gloat. Expand I’m kidding. Post away because lord knows we would. Crazy how snowy it’s been in the greens. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted February 13 Share Posted February 13 On 2/13/2025 at 12:52 AM, Typhoon Tip said: No, Kevin, the run is showing .6 to .7” accretion and not as much over lower elevations. That interpretation just means that there’s some members that have more but that also means there’s are members that have less. But people seem to lean on the idea of some members being more and thinking that it’s some kind of ominous implication, but that’s never been true. Expand Aren’t you getting excited about a big icer? Trousers slipping down ? 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ineedsnow Posted February 13 Share Posted February 13 On 2/13/2025 at 12:53 AM, Typhoon Tip said: Jesus one way or another you’re gonna get your drama dose out of this huh? Expand 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWolf Posted February 13 Share Posted February 13 On 2/13/2025 at 12:50 AM, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said: Not that long ago the eps and gefs means also showed sne and cne buried under many feet of snow by the end of this week… Expand No, Actually that was showing that amount at the end of next week..not this week. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wx2fish Posted February 13 Share Posted February 13 On 2/13/2025 at 12:51 AM, ineedsnow said: Euro mean also has 30 mph gust.. even if we got a half inch of ice that would cause problems Expand You really need some wind for big ice. Supplies lower dews from the NE to offset latent heating. It's why for big ice events we really need a meso low. In 08, ORH was gusting 20+ 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxWatcher007 Posted February 13 Share Posted February 13 On 2/13/2025 at 12:50 AM, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said: Not that long ago the eps and gefs means also showed sne and cne buried under many feet of snow by the end of this week… Expand Still waiting On 2/13/2025 at 12:51 AM, powderfreak said: I know ha, it’s tough giving observations when the forum is split like this. But it’s what’s happening. Aiming for more of an observational approach than a gloat. Expand It’s all good man, you know we love ya. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sey-Mour Snow Posted February 13 Share Posted February 13 On 2/13/2025 at 12:57 AM, WinterWolf said: No, Actually that was showing that amount at the end of next week..not this week. Expand It was this week, we will end up getting 8-16” statewide from all the waves. Instead of 12-24”.. still not awful but the low end verified instead of the mean or 75th percentile Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted February 13 Share Posted February 13 On 2/13/2025 at 12:57 AM, WinterWolf said: No, Actually that was showing that amount at the end of next week..not this week. Expand No. Actually, this week. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted February 13 Share Posted February 13 On 2/13/2025 at 1:16 AM, Sey-Mour Snow said: It was this week, we will end up getting 8-16” statewide from all the waves. Instead of 12-24”.. still not awful but the low end verified instead of the mean or 75th percentile Expand I don’t see my 4” being doubled by the weekend. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted February 13 Share Posted February 13 On 2/13/2025 at 1:21 AM, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said: I don’t see my 4” being doubled by the weekend. Expand Cold trends are real my friend . Inhale a bit more Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted February 13 Share Posted February 13 On 2/13/2025 at 12:35 AM, WinterWolf said: You’re not listening to Tip…he says people are ignoring the speed of the system. Expand And it's obviously because of the northward displacement of the Hadley Cell due to CC....there are published papers on it. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted February 13 Share Posted February 13 On 2/13/2025 at 12:53 AM, CoastalWx said: I’m kidding. Post away because lord knows we would. Crazy how snowy it’s been in the greens. Expand Just think of how frequently rainy it is in the warm season, afternoon showers and storms ruining warm season activities… it all comes around eventually. Just got into the right mid level temps, prevailing westerly flow, with just enough low level moisture aided by the lakes… over a long period of time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted February 13 Share Posted February 13 On 2/13/2025 at 1:22 AM, Damage In Tolland said: Cold trends are real my friend . Inhale a bit more Expand Drink a bit less. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sey-Mour Snow Posted February 13 Share Posted February 13 On 2/13/2025 at 1:21 AM, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said: I don’t see my 4” being doubled by the weekend. Expand We’ve had other storms mixed in, much of SNE has 6-12” since Feb 2nd . Our area 8-10”.. The snowy period on ensembles was Feb 2nd-Feb 17.. we have another 2-4” before Feb 17. Which will bring most of southern New England to 8-16”. Again not what we wanted but not a complete bust.. we hit the 15-20th percentile of what was possible. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted February 13 Share Posted February 13 On 2/13/2025 at 12:50 AM, DomNH said: I think even 0.5'' - 1'' of QPF as ice in a fast moving, moderate to heavy rain type of system isn't going to do it for Phil. A nice wintry appeal and saggy trees but short of . Expand If you can get an inch of QPF as ice, that will cause some pretty serious damage. It won’t be 2008, but you can accrete 4 tenths or even half an inch of radial ice. Typically 3/8ths when you really start ramping up the power outages. I agree half an inch of QPF as ice wouldn’t get it done. That would be under a quarter inch radial and probably keep power issues to a minimum. It’s def better to lean in the conservative direction when QPF isn’t super robust. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted February 13 Share Posted February 13 On 2/13/2025 at 1:34 AM, ORH_wxman said: If you can get an inch of QPF as ice, that will cause some pretty serious damage. It won’t be 2008, but you can accrete 4 tenths or even half an inch of radial ice. Typically 3/8ths when you really start ramping up the power outages. I agree half an inch of QPF as ice wouldn’t get it done. That would be under a quarter inch radial and probably keep power issues to a minimum. It’s def better to lean in the conservative direction when QPF isn’t super robust. Expand If you add in 30+ wind.. you’ll have issues . You recall what we had here very localized 2 Febs ago ..Every yard in my neighborhood lost at least 1 tree or partial trees 1 1 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
H2Otown_WX Posted February 13 Share Posted February 13 I can't see precip fields or precip type on pivotal for the 18z AI Euro but it looks cold with over an inch of QPF for the weekend. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWolf Posted February 13 Share Posted February 13 On 2/13/2025 at 1:16 AM, Sey-Mour Snow said: It was this week, we will end up getting 8-16” statewide from all the waves. Instead of 12-24”.. still not awful but the low end verified instead of the mean or 75th percentile Expand This says Friday the 21st… for a week ago today. So that was for 16 days. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DomNH Posted February 13 Share Posted February 13 On 2/13/2025 at 1:34 AM, ORH_wxman said: If you can get an inch of QPF as ice, that will cause some pretty serious damage. It won’t be 2008, but you can accrete 4 tenths or even half an inch of radial ice. Typically 3/8ths when you really start ramping up the power outages. I agree half an inch of QPF as ice wouldn’t get it done. That would be under a quarter inch radial and probably keep power issues to a minimum. It’s def better to lean in the conservative direction when QPF isn’t super robust. Expand Ah, I thought 0.5'' was when the power issues started. Agree that 3/8'' is probably doable in the favored spots if things stay the same as they are now. I just don't see a widespread ice storm warning kinda deal. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sey-Mour Snow Posted February 13 Share Posted February 13 On 2/13/2025 at 1:42 AM, WinterWolf said: This says Friday the 21st… for a week ago today. So that was for 16 days. Expand Ya that includes the prior two events, tonight’s threat bust , This weekends threat we will see , and next Thursdays threat we will see. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sey-Mour Snow Posted February 13 Share Posted February 13 On 2/13/2025 at 1:42 AM, H2Otown_WX said: I can't see precip fields or precip type on pivotal for the 18z AI Euro but it looks cold with over an inch of QPF for the weekend. Expand Ya it’s really cold, that’s about as warm as surface gets.. 90-100% frozen just inland 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWolf Posted February 13 Share Posted February 13 Is the Euro Gonna cave again later on… Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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