brooklynwx99 Posted February 12 Share Posted February 12 30 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: GEFS will be suppressed there is some interest Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted February 12 Share Posted February 12 3 minutes ago, brooklynwx99 said: there is some interest Mean sucks ass. -"What does she look like, Johnny" -"She has a beautiful heart that warms a room" 6 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWolf Posted February 12 Share Posted February 12 25 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said: Yeah ... and it not just the AO. All the indexes are flagging a warm abrupt end to winter ... This is the agglomerate index mode on Mar 7: +AO/+EPO/+NAO/-PNA Mmm, yeeeeah, that's a pretty quick end. I mean, maybe in another era, imagined or distantly in the past, the behaviors of the total atmosphere would argue for exceptions to the rule that implies - a big warm one. But nowadays ? Folks need to get real about where we are circumstantially at a global scale, and just how enabling this has been over the last 6 or so weeks Here, and Japan ... are the only two places on the entire planet, where civility reigns or doesn't, that has experienced a January that was "cold" relative to climate, and probably extending into these first 10 days of February. Where do folks think this winter would be without that very insular layout above? Experienced hobbyists and mets know why this was the case ( above) and it was related to the NE Pacific dominating the circulation mode during that 45+ days. Oscillating between -EPO cold loading into N/A and/or highly compressed low wave height +PNAs Should this index spread confirm, +AO/+EPO/+NAO/-PNA , out there, doing so in that world above, at a time of year deep into the solar transition, during a La NIna footprint that correlates to warmer than normal springs... during CC... anything else we can pile on? I mean, geez Lol..you said this on MLK day too…for two weeks later. Maybe this time? Maybe not. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted February 12 Share Posted February 12 3 minutes ago, The 4 Seasons said: MAJOR outage Its like avoiding the doctor in an effort to disassociate from that lump on your throat that has been growing for about year.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted February 12 Share Posted February 12 5 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: Mean sucks ass. -"What does she look like, Johnny" -"She has a beautiful heart that warms a room" That’s prob where you want it at D8. Otherwise it will end up in Ottawa the way this year has gone. 1 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted February 12 Share Posted February 12 3 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said: That’s prob where you want it at D8. Otherwise it will end up in Ottawa the way this year has gone. I was waiting for someone to utter that obligatory cliche...don't forget, this season has been an equal opportinity sodomizer in every direction. 3 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted February 12 Share Posted February 12 23 minutes ago, WinterWolf said: Lol..you said this on MLK day too…for two weeks later. Maybe this time? Maybe not. mm no. Not in this context. That was regarding a single model run of the GFS, and I was discussing why those "kind" of looks shouldn't be tossed because of the broader correlations in play. If anything, below is a the primitive attempt to materialize that idea, so it offers support to it. The teleconnectors now, are in aggregate, completely abandoning any cold signaling. It is entirely fair to say that is a first, if perhaps primitive, in deterministic method to demonstrate the matter; within which, that is unfortunately what you don't like. Too bad. If you want to quibble with the notion that nothing is absolute - okay. That's true everywhere in nature at all times, at all scales. But one that is connected to objective reality understands the importance of probability, and how reality is constructed out of very high degrees of to anticipate - it's like one of the things that separates humans from other apes. We're all supposed to remove that native, gift of evolution and faculty of higher order intelligence, because you think the future cannot be presupposed. Not going to happen. EVER. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sey-Mour Snow Posted February 12 Share Posted February 12 33 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said: Lol, not on the weeklies…maybe someone else does. I do have a precip anomaly map Weeklies are cold, below normal right through March ( well below normal Feb 17-27). Maintain east coast trough west coast ridge through first week of March. Looks dry first week of March , other than that very active. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted February 12 Share Posted February 12 20 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said: That’s prob where you want it at D8. Otherwise it will end up in Ottawa the way this year has gone. Yeah... I only "like" the 20th because as I've been pointing out using a lot of tl;dr's and some time wasting annotations ... the flow is relaxing while entering a +PNA. However, as I've also pointed out... this is not the first time this last 45+ days I've seen the guidance aggregate attempt this lessening compression - but what happens is an insidiously slow adding of gradient in time, such that we're not aware ...we just end up sped up to hell and back in the same quagmire. Back to earth re the 17th ... it's a little frustrating because there are canonical reasons to argue that track being farther S-E... Not even a ton, but just not so enraged like the Euro. I also noticed the 12z GFS is outright modeling a nasty tuck early Monday. I still think we have a lot of low level model error potential from this range, with that warm intrusion - all cynicism and snark aside. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted February 12 Share Posted February 12 10 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said: mm no. Not in this context. That was regarding a single model run of the GFS, and I was discussing why those "kind" of looks shouldn't be tossed because of the broader correlations in play. If anything, below is a the primitive attempt to materialize that idea, so it offers support to it. The teleconnectors now, are in aggregate, completely abandoning any cold signaling. It is entirely fair to say that is a first, if perhaps primitive, deterministic method demonstrating the matter; within which, that is unfortunately what you don't like. Too bad. If you want to quibble with the notion that nothing is absolute - okay. That's true everywhere in nature at all times, at all scales. But one that is connected to objective reality understands the importance of probability, and how reality is constructed out of very high degrees of to anticipate - it's like one of the things that separates humans from other apes. We're all supposed to remove that native, gift of evolution and faculty of higher order intelligence, because you think the future cannot be presupposed. Not going to happen. EVER. You know my feeling with respect to potential this period ....I'm just letting off some steam. Certainly not tossing anything. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
radarman Posted February 12 Share Posted February 12 32 minutes ago, The 4 Seasons said: Here's where we are at ending February 10th. I started working on these Monday so they don't include last nights light snow. Nice, thanks. FWIW I have 30" here very near where you show 21" just SW of Quabbin. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted February 12 Share Posted February 12 Heh...got time to kill, have a peek at the Korean for end of next week......Weeeeeeee 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted February 12 Share Posted February 12 40 minutes ago, WinterWolf said: Maybe this time? Maybe not. We just don’t know! 3 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWolf Posted February 12 Share Posted February 12 6 minutes ago, powderfreak said: We just don’t know! We certainly don’t…if this season has taught us anything, it’s we don’t know past 4-5 days. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted February 12 Share Posted February 12 1 minute ago, WinterWolf said: We certainly don’t…if this season has taught us anything, it’s we don’t know past 4-5 days. Not Kuchie 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxWatcher007 Posted February 12 Share Posted February 12 Idk who got into the server room and shut down the Euro, but thank you. 1 9 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWolf Posted February 12 Share Posted February 12 3 minutes ago, Ginx snewx said: Not Kuchie That’s even more crazy than the ones last Wednesday lmao..and those were nuts. Delayed not denied? Believe it when we see it. I’ll take half of that 30 burger and be happy. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWolf Posted February 12 Share Posted February 12 2 minutes ago, WxWatcher007 said: Idk who got into the server room and shut down the Euro, but thank you. Maybe the Europeans couldn’t stand how bad it’s been, and shut the bitch down. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
monadnocks Posted February 12 Share Posted February 12 8 minutes ago, Ginx snewx said: Not Kuchie Just no. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWolf Posted February 12 Share Posted February 12 4 minutes ago, monadnocks said: Just no. Now that you say that..it’ll happen. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DavisStraight Posted February 12 Share Posted February 12 59 minutes ago, radarman said: Nice, thanks. FWIW I have 30" here very near where you show 21" just SW of Quabbin. Maybe they'll let me build a cabin on Mt Greylock. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ariof Posted February 12 Share Posted February 12 42 minutes ago, Ginx snewx said: Not Kuchie I've thrown out my back this season from shoveling D8 snow. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted February 12 Share Posted February 12 Fade the gfs. Skynet has been trending se for a couple runs now for the 20th. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWolf Posted February 12 Share Posted February 12 Fade em all at this point…And 8 days out is pretty much clown range. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Go Kart Mozart Posted February 12 Share Posted February 12 1 hour ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: I was waiting for someone to utter that obligatory cliche...don't forget, this season has been an equal opportinity sodomizer in every direction. How about this: The mean is useful only for the general longwave pattern, useless for storm location. For storm location you have to look at the clusters. Otherwise, you are falling for "The Golden Mean Fallacy". Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted February 12 Share Posted February 12 OES making it as far west as my location. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
H2Otown_WX Posted February 12 Share Posted February 12 25 minutes ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said: Fade the gfs. Skynet has been trending se for a couple runs now for the 20th. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted February 12 Share Posted February 12 The good news about the Euro not coming in today is we can't see how bad it is. Should have us all in a better mood by this evening. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 12 Share Posted February 12 18z NAM is definitely flatter vs 12z..but yeah, 84 hr NAM. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted February 12 Share Posted February 12 7 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said: The good news about the Euro not coming in today is we can't see how bad it is. Should have us all in a better mood by this evening. Heavy heavy snow coming 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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