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February 2025 Disco/Obs Thread


Torch Tiger
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5 minutes ago, Sey-Mour Snow said:

Massachusetts buried alive wow.. 

And that is only partial phase - but ... it's 60 or 70% proficiency combined with "model magnification" aspects ...

who cares, enjoy your dose, people

HAHA

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1 hour ago, ORH_wxman said:

I miss the liftopia days where I could get a 2 day pass to Sunday river for like 90-100 bucks. Now you can’t even get a 1 day pass for that. Cost has gotten insane unless you live close enough for a season pass. 
 

Im still going to try and get my boys on skis before winter ends (hopefully in a couple of weekends) but I cringe at the prices now. I think Killington still has kids under 12 ski free if you get a multi-day pass for an adult but not 100% sure. They did fairly recently at least. 

Jay had a deal for first time skiers earlier this year...4 free lessons, 4 free rentals, free beginner day pass for the day of the lesson and a free season pass once you completed all the lessons.  Goal was to get kids involved in the sport.

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1 hour ago, UnitedWx said:

I think you're mistaking some of us not calling it a rat for just understanding that it happens and say "I don't give a fucc, I'll be back next season" It just makes me laugh at the over reaction and emotionalism to a "bad" winter... Some of us have been through this before and know it happens and the WAAA WAAA WAA gets old

Not to prolong the conversation, but that’s fair. That’s why I kind of miss The Panic Room (this was a Mid-Atlantic thing when I lived there). If you’re not familiar, it put a humorous and creative spin on the outrageous negativity and positivity that filled winter tracking threads. It was a separate space that was fun and totally unserious—good years or bad. 

All of this stuff gets too serious imo and it only compounds when you have a string of awful winters. 

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On 2/11/2025 at 7:50 AM, Typhoon Tip said:

What interests me about the 20th emergence is that it's taking place in a modeled relaxation of the compression/speed anomalies. 

Short version, the relaxation is allowing more storm kinematics to be conserved at the smaller scales - which means better/more efficient/better timed field interactions --> storm production and power.   ... Another way to look at it is the large scale flow slowing is less of a baked in negative interference. 

Long version, the -EPO is neutralized in the days leading, and though in theory this would stem our cold supply ... this is actually a well timed for the d(rotting) factor.  I wouldn't want to wait on that much longer in an era that proves turning off cold supply modulates us on the + side of marginal quite quickly.  Having a cryosphere throughout SE Canada and in our backyards is factorable in the environmental noise.  

The higher latitude on going -AO is then exerting a west motion through the lower Ferrel latitudes ( roughly along 55 to 70 N band).  From 50 thousand feet, this conceptually sets up 40 N precarious for phasing.  But, doing so with a relaxed gradient is far more likely to both succeed and produce a bigger event, then if this phasing potential is heightened while the flow along 40 N is compressed and fast. 

You can see these SPV fragments moving SW through lower Canada on the model cinemas, leading durig the 15th and the 19th, prior to the 16th but more importantly the 20th development.   This is happening as the compression is easing and the flow is slowly opening up. The 20th is the less inhibited of the two, and that's why we see the the operational GFS with an unobstructed fully realizing S/stream bomb on the 06z, and the Euros multi contoured phased result in it's rendition for the 20th.  The GGEM is also showing this cyclonic rotation of SPV parcels into the backside of S/stream S/W ... but it's holding onto the compression longer, which speeds the S/stream S/W movement through the field and that leads to more of the pacing/spatial temporal bipass issues. Who's worried about the GGEM at D 9 though. 

 

 

 

bump....  just because the pattern relevancy is still in play.  

But the model complexion out there remains, so far, a lower large scale height gradient +PNA 

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3 minutes ago, dryslot said:

Here we go again

Investigating - ECMWF is completely inaccessible at this time. No files are being transferred, and the ECMWF status page and production data store are unavailable. We will post updates as we receive them from ECMWF.
Feb 12, 2025 - 12:27 EST

Probably for the best.

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40 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said:

Know why the posting frequency drops immediately after a "credible" model solution that looks like that ?

Eyes are rollin' back in heads as the needle slips from the finger tips and tumbles to the floor -

Meh, it’s more like people are saying put up or shut up with modeled fantasy clown range storms. You’ve seen it once, you’ve seen it a million times.

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