Typhoon Tip Posted February 12 Share Posted February 12 11 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: I know everyone was accusing me of being negative, but how much longer will the same people continue to keep getting shit thrown at their face until they too just admit this season blows. It's been the same thing as we get closer time and time again. Something is there to muck it up. Yes I have appreciated the snow over the last 5 weeks or so. I really have. But at the same time, all the wasted potential with great airmasses in place start to add up. That is what's going right up my tail pipe. I never thought this is how we would manufacture another frustrating season. See ...not to come off holier than thou but I let people be negative. For one, I don't wanna be a hypocrite if/when my own humanism needs a moment for snarky skepticism and cynical "truth" - if not just for fun in doing so... But one thing that always comes to mind for me is sort of abstract philosophy. The constant optimism during a clear empirical data that demonstrates an objective reality that your strapped in hell to a shit stuffing machine ... comes off as no different than gaslighting oneself - and expecting others to jump on your party bus is kind of like manipulating the scenario to elide the reality of eating the shit. I don't want to disengage from reality that way. Because either self, or someone else, spinning stench as smelling like a rose, is disconnecting. There's nothing wrong, and in fact...one could argue it is actually mentally healthier to be aware and objectively truthful about the shit being eaten - this can go on into a lot of existentialism and debating the value of life stuff but I'll defer. In the end, the delusion actually doesn't work. You deal with the shit, now, in reality, and work it out. You don't hide behind tactical euphemistic takes that are ... well, full of shit. 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mahk_webstah Posted February 12 Share Posted February 12 At this point, we just hope that the worst of the trending is over and then maybe we take a couple of ticks in a positive direction between now and Saturday. Not impossible. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxWatcher007 Posted February 12 Share Posted February 12 15 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: I know everyone was accusing me of being negative, but how much longer will the same people continue to keep getting shit thrown at their face until they too just admit this season blows. It's been the same thing as we get closer time and time again. Something is there to muck it up. Yes I have appreciated the snow over the last 5 weeks or so. I really have. But at the same time, all the wasted potential with great airmasses in place start to add up. That is what's going right up my tail pipe. I never thought this is how we would manufacture another frustrating season. That’s what frustrates me so much with winters now. We would never engage in the Olympic level mental gymnastics in any other season. Not for severe, not for tropical, not for temperature & dews discussion. I’m not saying that people can’t be optimistic, and anyone who has been around here long enough knows that I’m right with the positive/grateful for what I got crew most of the time—but we gotta be able to call it like we see it without all this buck up there’s still time stuff. I may have been early on the call (and let the record eternally show that if I’m canceling winter we’re really done), but we HAVE to face what’s in front of us. This season has not, is not, and will not be it. Not down here in the hinterlands. And if you need help understanding it, I have an avatar for that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted February 12 Share Posted February 12 10 minutes ago, Modfan2 said: And the sad part is we have had decent cold for the majority of the season; storms just haven’t worked out. Yeah. It’s not like we have had rain events either. Plenty of weather when it has been plenty cold for snow. But always one way or another to pork us. I was talking to a coworker who does ski club with me. This was the first season we could recall when we didn’t have at least one trip postponed due to rain or lack of snow (natural Or manmade) 3 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted February 12 Share Posted February 12 11 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said: See ...not to come off holier than thou but I let people be negative. For one, I don't wanna be a hypocrite if/when my own humanism needs a moment for snarky skepticism and cynical "truth" - if not just for fun in doing so... But one thing that always comes to mind for me is sort of abstract philosophy. The constant optimism during a clear empirical data that demonstrates an objective reality that your strapped in hell to a shit stuffing machine ... comes off as no different than gaslighting oneself - and expecting others to jump on your party bus is kind of like manipulating the scenario to elide the reality of eating the shit. I don't want to disengage from reality that way. Because either self, or someone else, spinning stench as smelling like a rose, is disconnecting. There's nothing wrong, and in fact...one could argue it is actually mentally healthier to be aware and objectively truthful about the shit being eaten - this can go on into a lot of existentialism and debating the value of life stuff but I'll defer. In the end, the delusion actually doesn't work. You deal with the shit, now, in reality, and work it out. You don't hide behind tactical euphemistic takes that are ... well, full of shit. Exactly. But by the same token, I don't have an issue with others that deal differently...whether it be sledding off to a cabin in east dear-taint, Maine, walking the dogs to a hill to toboggan in an inch of mud, or simply going quiet. Everyone processes the shit in their own way. I prefer to vent a bit before drifting away into other outlets. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxWatcher007 Posted February 12 Share Posted February 12 Everyone deals differently. That’s fine. If things are going to be miserable, at least have fun with it. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted February 12 Share Posted February 12 8 minutes ago, WxWatcher007 said: That’s what frustrates me so much with winters now. We would never engage in the Olympic level mental gymnastics in any other season. Not for severe, not for tropical, not for temperature & dews discussion. I’m not saying that people can’t be optimistic, and anyone who has been around here long enough knows that I’m right with the positive/grateful for what I got crew most of the time—but we gotta be able to call it like we see it without all this buck up there’s still time stuff. I may have been early on the call (and let the record eternally show that if I’m canceling winter we’re really done), but we HAVE to face what’s in front of us. This season has not, is not, and will not be it. Not down here in the hinterlands. And if you need help understanding it, I have an avatar for that. Because winter elicits the highest of expectations around here...failure is baseline for severe and tropical...and no one expects to sustain a pants tent from temp/dew talk. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted February 12 Share Posted February 12 4 minutes ago, mahk_webstah said: At this point, we just hope that the worst of the trending is over and then maybe we take a couple of ticks in a positive direction between now and Saturday. Not impossible. We shall see, Typically these will tick colder as we get closer especially up here. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SouthCoastMA Posted February 12 Share Posted February 12 It is what it is..It's disappointing..but at this stage in my life I can't let it affect me too much. If the last few winters occurred in my mid 20's, there would have been many more holes in the dry wall. I'm keeping an eye on 2/20, but that's about it. Expectations are ZERO. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 12 Share Posted February 12 1 minute ago, SouthCoastMA said: It is what it is..It's disappointing..but at this stage in my life I can't let it affect me to much. If the last few winters occurred in my mid 20's, there would have been many more holes in the dry wall. I'm keeping an eye on 2/20, but that's about it. Expectations are ZERO. Doesn’t change for me. I still want to put holes in the drywall. 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted February 12 Share Posted February 12 The blog actually helps me to stay a bit more grounded about this because active patterns end up being a lot of work, which is made paltable by my passion for said acitvity. However, being able to disengage and shirk the self-imposed responsibility of writing and constructing graphics is a worthy consolation for tolerating mundane weather. This is why my most loathed pattern is a fast-paced flow with a rapid succession of moderate events, which maximize work and minimize the reward of intrigue. This shit tonight and tomorrow AM? It can fu*k right off....nothing more than a brief social media shout out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SouthCoastMA Posted February 12 Share Posted February 12 2 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: Doesn’t change for me. I still want to put holes in the drywall. LOL - I sometimes do, but maybe I'm just better about controlling it in my early 40's 2010/2011 was my peak angst, because of missing out on several storms by a few miles. We even finished above average. That version of me today would probably cause some real Phil. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted February 12 Share Posted February 12 39 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: As of right now, the system on the 24th actually isn't dealing with that aforementioned malady that has plagued this season. Lets see if it holds. Yeah ...this what I've been talking about the last several days... there's a signal for the flow to "relax" out there beween the 20th and 30th - I mean we call it relax but really we mean less gradient between ... roughly 60 N and 30N It's complex but in a larger simplified perspective, less compression --> lowering basal wind velocities --> more curved surfaces can then evolve --> better storm production. Nooormally, a relaxed form of a +PNA would lend to that. The problem is what you've already observed and just noted - and is why I'm pretty much done until something proves otherwise ( with winter...). It's something else I've also mentioned over the last week, this is not the first time the character of the hemisphere was modeled to step off the compression. In every time thus far, the models try and succeed in insidiously adding just these little soupcons of compression to every model cycle, sneaking in a way, when passing everything from D10 to D5 ... You may not notice in per cycle, but then you compare after the fact, and there's like 15 extra dms mashed between HB and Florida, with record breaking w-e continental air traffic speeds. It's not a mystery where that is coming from ... the EPO domain is not being well handled at longer leads. The models keep trying to dismantle it, then... a new nadir in the index tends to correct that D7 range. EPO tanks, cold load, gradient goes ^, we be fucked. And the nasty part of that kind of hidden abuse ( haha ), one would typically think of a -EPO as, 'oh, great - cold source' This brings us back to my own observation that in order to be cold enough, inimically has become a circumstance of too much compression. It seems ever more evidenced that to get a S/W conserving pattern amid a cold enough one is a rarefying scenario. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted February 12 Share Posted February 12 7 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said: Yeah ...this what I've been talking about the last several days... there's a signal for the flow to "relax" out there beween the 20th and 30th - I mean we call it relax but really we mean less gradient between ... roughly 60 N and 30N It's complex but in a larger simplified perspective, less compression --> lowering basal wind velocities --> more curved surface can then evolve --> better storm production. Nooormally, a relaxed form of a +PNA would lend to that. The problem is what you've already observed and just noted - and is why I'm pretty much done until something proves otherwise ( with winter...). It's something else I've also mentioned over the last week, this is not the first time the character of the hemisphere was modeled to step off the compression. In every time thus far, the models would try and insidiously add a little compression to ever model cycles passing everything from D10 to D5 ... you may not notice in per cycle, but you compare after the fact, and there's like 15 extra line mashed between HB and Florida, with record break w-e continental air traffic speeds. It's not a mystery where that is coming from ... the EPO domain is not being well handled at longer leads. The models keep trying to dismantle it, then... a new nadir in the index tends to correct that D7 range. EPO tanks, cold load, gradient goes ^, we be fucked. I think the ridge could stand to be a bit further east...its not ideal, but better and perhaps servicable. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mahk_webstah Posted February 12 Share Posted February 12 8 minutes ago, dryslot said: We shall see, Typically these will tick colder as we get closer especially up here. Messenger Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted February 12 Share Posted February 12 7 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: Doesn’t change for me. I still want to put holes in the drywall. You need to visit a rage room. You might enjoy it. 4 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted February 12 Share Posted February 12 1 minute ago, HoarfrostHubb said: You need to visit a rage room. You might enjoy it. He calls it the kids' playroom... 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted February 12 Share Posted February 12 3 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: I think the ridge could stand to be a bit further west...its not ideal, but better and perhaps servicable. Agreed... it's a rarefying scenario of a relaxing height gradient, with a window of bankable cold, ... but the ridge not popping hurts realization of that potential. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted February 12 Share Posted February 12 1 minute ago, Typhoon Tip said: Agreed... it's a rarefying scenario of a relaxing height gradient, with a window of bankable cold, ... but the ridge not popping hurts realization of that potential. I meant east, but you probably gathered that.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ineedsnow Posted February 12 Share Posted February 12 12z ICON is all frozen here Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted February 12 Share Posted February 12 1 minute ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: I meant east, but you probably gathered that.... yeah i knew ridge more ideally placed. in fact, it doesn't even have to be fuckin' ideal. just give me a 70%er and we can work it out. man - 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mahk_webstah Posted February 12 Share Posted February 12 1 minute ago, ineedsnow said: 12z ICON is all frozen here I'd think many of us in CNE and NNE stay all frozen. Its just that freezing rain is so unpleasant. I'm hoping with can manage 6-10 on the front end. But with the cold to follow we will be bulletproof. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 12 Share Posted February 12 7 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: He calls it the kids' playroom... Thank God for the gym 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TalcottWx Posted February 12 Share Posted February 12 14 minutes ago, HoarfrostHubb said: You need to visit a rage room. You might enjoy it. Just break out the shovel and snowblower. Beat it. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted February 12 Share Posted February 12 13 minutes ago, mahk_webstah said: I'd think many of us in CNE and NNE stay all frozen. Its just that freezing rain is so unpleasant. I'm hoping with can manage 6-10 on the front end. But with the cold to follow we will be bulletproof. Yeah... I'm ( just in case ) opining about the seasonality we've sufferend and appear to continue to do so. But objectively ... there's plenty of clad conceptual reasons to assume that even the higher resolution model types will be too fast with significant cold air damming. There is an antecedent cold air mass in place, and .. there is a +PP situated N. That means the environment in the lateral sense is coupled already - most likely ...- so, if any lowering pressure and/or frontal tapestry attempts to lift toward that area, mass-conserve immediately generate an ageo wind response; it should negatively feedback on the temperature. I can remember being new to this part of the country, in interior eastern MA back whence dinosaurs roamed ... and so many forecasts for ZR to change to straight rain, with highs in the upper 30s, iced 'till the next dawn. Now, modeling is better, and much better resolution tech exposes the lowest level inhibition to warm intrusion better... However, there is still going to be delays there with a +PP situated N. I would not be surprise at all if even in interior SNE there's stubborn cold sag ...even if it's 32.4. May even cold seclude with WPC's crackerjack sfc analysis placing a warm front north of the region while that is happening. Up there? forget it... But again, the speed of the field and probably that correcting the system toward less ...blah blah, may not make the totality of the thing all that important anyway. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Layman Posted February 12 Share Posted February 12 9 minutes ago, mahk_webstah said: I'd think many of us in CNE and NNE stay all frozen. Its just that freezing rain is so unpleasant. I'm hoping with can manage 6-10 on the front end. But with the cold to follow we will be bulletproof. How far south do your draw your CNE line? CON? ASH? 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Torch Tiger Posted February 12 Author Share Posted February 12 A little OE snow in Duxbury right now, deep deep winter. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
butterfish55 Posted February 12 Share Posted February 12 OES here in Hanson. Festive 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted February 12 Share Posted February 12 24 minutes ago, ineedsnow said: 12z ICON is all frozen here That model's actually been undeviating going back several cycles - unfortunately, this particular guidance is remarkably adept at abasing the primary tenet of a operational deterministic weather forecasting: continuity. The negative exposure of that is, it continuously forecasts things that don't actually happen. LOL We'll see 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted February 12 Share Posted February 12 23 minutes ago, ineedsnow said: 12z ICON is all frozen here It’s not all frozen unless you’re including ZR Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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