ORH_wxman Posted February 11 Share Posted February 11 6 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said: Subtly the EPS mean looks like it's trying to capitulate some to the GEFs flatter/colder weekend scenario. It's not hugely obvious ... but the 00z didn't look quite as aggressively warm to me. 00z was def less amped but the 06z EPS is significantly more amped than 00z EPS…which is weird because the 06z OP run was def flatter….EPS clearly not biting on that flatter look at 06z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted February 11 Share Posted February 11 I used to play that game when I was kid... Imagining Swiss Alps snow banks. I can remember being a teenager and my neighborhood was a short jaunt through shallow woods to a huge parking lot for a shopping plaza. After large enough snow events, the over night front end loaders banging, then the engines revving. Those piles grew immense, just like a the crags of mountain ranges as they lined the continental boundary of the parking lot. haha. Love for weather events and the affects it has on the environment, all natural events for that matter ... a lot of the fascination is what it does for the imagination. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tamarack Posted February 11 Share Posted February 11 1 hour ago, dryslot said: 7:00 am CITY SKY/WX TMP DP RH WIND PRES REMARKS LEWISTONAUBURN CLEAR -10 -15 78 CALM 30.33F Same as here - great rad night. HOU and PQI had -19. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted February 11 Share Posted February 11 21 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: This is why I have never bothered to block anyone....the quoting largely defeats the purpose and its not worth the effort. I wish you guys could stop quoting Kev... Really? 1 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWolf Posted February 11 Share Posted February 11 5 minutes ago, dendrite said: You remind me of MetHerb when you start getting violent over the thought of spring this time of year. It’s not even that Brian…I just can’t stomach the trolling. It absolutely infuriates me. And I love spring when it’s the end of March..bring it on(of course then it rains and is 40). But when it’s trolling on Feb 11th..that’s a pet peeve. Anyway, I will make a better effort going forward. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted February 11 Share Posted February 11 4 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said: 00z was def less amped but the 06z EPS is significantly more amped than 00z EPS…which is weird because the 06z OP run was def flatter….EPS clearly not biting on that flatter look at 06z. Didn't see the 06z ... sure. But it's like 'wobbling' before collapse? It shows at least that it's not as stable. It's been an interesting year for model fights. Not sure why-for this is the case ... ( probably fast flow/compression blah blah ), but a lot of these 96 hour ens means looking divorced Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kitz Craver Posted February 11 Share Posted February 11 11 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said: 00z was def less amped but the 06z EPS is significantly more amped than 00z EPS…which is weird because the 06z OP run was def flatter….EPS clearly not biting on that flatter look at 06z. We said no step backs, this would be considered one, no? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted February 11 Share Posted February 11 54 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: Birds are chirping too. The chirping going on up here is from folks chirping about the cold and snow and more that's coming. 2 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted February 11 Share Posted February 11 Actually ... the 06z GEFs mean also was slightly more amped and thus, circumstantially a little warmer ... It's really like each ens system is responding to their own native bias tendencies. The GEFs will tend to conserve the compression and limit things because of that, where the Euro genetics carries this trait of fighting it more and upon working out how to do it, ends up deeper and farther N. Probably just take the mean of the two, and be thrilled by the saving notion that we're still fast afflicted so whatever transpires, ...it's not lasting long enough to matter very much. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted February 11 Share Posted February 11 2 minutes ago, Kitz Craver said: We said no step backs, this would be considered one, no? Yes I think it’s a pretty bad setback. Though I’m willing to see if 12z provides more clarity…it was weird to see the EPS not follow the OP run when we’re getting inside D6. Usually they trend the same direction once you’re getting out of clown range. But it might be a red flag that the ensembles didn’t follow the OP. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted February 11 Share Posted February 11 3 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said: Yes I think it’s a pretty bad setback. Though I’m willing to see if 12z provides more clarity…it was weird to see the EPS not follow the OP run when we’re getting inside D6. Usually they trend the same direction once you’re getting out of clown range. But it might be a red flag that the ensembles didn’t follow the OP. I would wait to see if 12z does it...I don't entitely trust the off hour suites, especially when they go against the OP at such a short lead time. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted February 11 Share Posted February 11 Ha ha... I just looked at the operational GFS from overnight... ( oh yeah -) I was so preoccupied with the ens means - that's actually both nastier, colder, and longer than its ensemble mean would suggest it should be. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 11 Share Posted February 11 9 minutes ago, dryslot said: The chirping going on up here is from folks chirping about the cold and snow and more that's coming. Lets get Pelicans back to Portland with the start of the 6z EPS trend. 1 1 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted February 11 Share Posted February 11 2 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: Lets get Pelicans back to Portland with the start of the 6z EPS trend. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted February 11 Share Posted February 11 2 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: Lets get Pee pees back to my potty with the start of the 6z EPS trend. Fetish? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 11 Share Posted February 11 2 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: Fetish? I have a fetish for an all snow event. Will that ever happen? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JC-CT Posted February 11 Share Posted February 11 1 minute ago, CoastalWx said: I have a fetish for an all snow event. Will that ever happen? No Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 11 Share Posted February 11 2 minutes ago, JC-CT said: No Of course the one storm that was completely underperformed. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DavisStraight Posted February 11 Share Posted February 11 4 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: I have a fetish for an all snow event. Will that ever happen? Ill take 15-20 changing to sleet at the end, used to get a few of those when I was in school back in the 70s. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 11 Share Posted February 11 Just now, DavisStraight said: Ill take 15-20 changing to sleet at the end, used to get a few of those when I was in school back in the 70s. Absolutely. These ass mist events (Perfect way to describe them Ray)...like the morning after a plate of General Gau's chicken and IPAs.....are completely useless. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted February 11 Share Posted February 11 Yeah, I don't know if the operational GFS and GGEM ( maybe the blend? ) are going to lose this minor war over how the weekend's ordeal will profile in this case. There's too much cold in the local space, and the governing synoptics are well constrained by telecon suggestion. The Euro seems overly physically processed in overcoming these aspects. It appears to me that this is another candidate for a late Euro capitulation. It's going to be interesting to see if how that works going forward. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted February 11 Share Posted February 11 1 hour ago, CoastalWx said: That gfs storm next week pelts past the pike lol. Not that it matters, but 65mph winds and pellets would be interesting. I would use the word “suck” instead of “be interesting.” Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 11 Share Posted February 11 Just now, moneypitmike said: I would use the word “suck” instead of “be interesting.” Nah that would be fun. A good coastal like that? I'll take it vs these completely useless 1-3" snow deals. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted February 11 Share Posted February 11 6 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said: Yeah, I don't know if the operational GFS and GGEM ( maybe the blend? ) are going to lose this minor war over how the weekend's ordeal will profile in this case. There's too much cold in the local space, and the governing synoptics are well constrained by telecon suggestion. The Euro seems overly physically processed in overcoming these aspects. It appears to me that this is another candidate for a late Euro capitulation. It's going to be interesting to see if how that works going forward. Yea, I think in the end this is a mess with several inches for a lot of spots. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxWatcher007 Posted February 11 Share Posted February 11 1 hour ago, WinterWolf said: I get the skepticism completely. I think most all of us are in that boat. I can certainly respect however, when somebody(in this case Ray) gives solid reasoning for why this may be different. That’s good stuff. I also like it when Brooklyn (or anybody for that matter)does it too. Thats What makes the board interesting, and informative/readable. Im fully ready for the midrange losing of the system too..that more times than not seems to happen, so I’m prepared for that in the next few days. Oh yeah, the analysis is great and this is a much more fun time than January by a mile. We should have fun regardless of what the weather is outside. The only thing that legitimately drives me crazy is when we seem to be on the hamster wheel chasing D10 ghosts. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted February 11 Share Posted February 11 12 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said: Yeah, I don't know if the operational GFS and GGEM ( maybe the blend? ) are going to lose this minor war over how the weekend's ordeal will profile in this case. There's too much cold in the local space, and the governing synoptics are well constrained by telecon suggestion. The Euro seems overly physically processed in overcoming these aspects. It appears to me that this is another candidate for a late Euro capitulation. It's going to be interesting to see if how that works going forward. Agree 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted February 11 Share Posted February 11 7 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: Yea, I think in the end this is a mess with several inches for a lot of spots. Synoptically, I’m mostly in agreement with Tip on the setup wanting to favor this pressing a bit more. You start with a very cold antecedent airmass (850 temps between -15c and -20c over much of New England on Friday). You have a 50/50 low that is actively strengthening at the same time the block is pushing south…these will act to lower heights over southeastern Canada….but that said, there’s still enough room if that PV tries to “lobe-out” a bit to the west and southwest, we could plausibly sneak this sucker up northwest enough with surgical precision to manifest the least interesting solution possible. In any normal winter or group of winters (given the last 2 years prior to this), I’d say fade the northwest guidance and hedge the southeast guidance…but we seem to find ways to maximize the pain around here so I’m paying plenty of attention to the rainers showing up. Let’s see if we get any help at 12z. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 11 Share Posted February 11 4 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said: Synoptically, I’m mostly in agreement with Tip on the setup wanting to favor this pressing a bit more. You start with a very cold antecedent airmass (850 temps between -15c and -20c over much of New England on Friday). You have a 50/50 low that is actively strengthening at the same time the block is pushing south…these will act to lower heights over southeastern Canada….but that said, there’s still enough room if that PV tries to “lobe-out” a bit to the west and southwest, we could plausibly sneak this sucker up northwest enough with surgical precision to manifest the least interesting solution possible. In any normal winter or group of winters (given the last 2 years prior to this), I’d say fade the northwest guidance and hedge the southeast guidance…but we seem to find ways to maximize the pain around here so I’m paying plenty of attention to the rainers showing up. Let’s see if we get any help at 12z. Normally hedging more negative (warmer) would be like voodoo and we'd give that person shit, but it's really true. I'm so sick of it. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 11 Share Posted February 11 Maybe the last two events it worked, but those were weak systems. This one makes me nervous to imply the same logic. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tunafish Posted February 11 Share Posted February 11 36 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: I have a fetish for an all snow event. Will that ever happen? Only if we sacrifice a poster to Ullr. Not to pick on anyone in particular, but I'd vote the next person to post a 300+ hour OP Kuchera map. 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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