February 2025 Disco/Obs Thread

[CoastalWx]

2 minutes ago, mahk_webstah said:

Less risky when your snowpack is what ours will be by Monday.  And with more cold looming 

Cutters don’t really care about pack. 
 

I’m talking more the tenor of the season. Next week craps out and then liquid risk after….keep kicking the can. I’m just putting things into perspective. 
 

If next week works out it’s a different ballgame. 

[Snowcrazed71]

Serious question. Why do do most of the METs ( at least wfsb and wvit ) always seem to use the Euro maps. They don't seem to put any Credence on the GFS. I noticed that's pretty much what they show when they show the storms coming in. I guess they still feel that the euro is the stronger and more reliable model. Just wondering everyone's thoughts?

[dendrite]

Bad black ice last night…yikes. Had a trace of snow too. 
 

Down to 26.8°. Pack is at 9”. 

[Typhoon Tip]

27 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

It doesn’t have to be big. But if that craps  out and then a risk of cutting as it reshuffles after, it’s back to how great H5 looks. Just my take.

No problem from me.

I said 2 weeks ago when this started looking encouraging via the various methodologies ... that we are being enabled in our hiding from the truth - so to speak.   'All winter ... '    'everything's the way it should be'.   

yeah, riiight.

Despite anyone's personal belief, the objective reality is that CC has claimed enough of our tendency vectors, that as soon as we close down the cold source into mid latitude N/A the NE Pacific circulation mode - I even annotated charts to show, "...As long as this feature is there, winter is within reach" - it's perpetual autumn.   While it is there, it is easy for people to either not be aware, forget, or just flat out deny that we blow torch ( relative to normal...) at a higher pitch than prior climate generation, and do so more and more dependably.  

And it shows... Those weirdly extraordinary heat bursts in February and March since the earlier 2000's, taking place regardless of antecedent established long and short telecon correlation biases, ... are a part of that.   etc etc.  Just as much as the "cold" January turns out to not even be appreciably below normal across the total subforum - somewhere in that reality is a cold pattern that can't quite get it done.  Oblivious though...

So, hey ... as long as we're dumping -25 C 850 mb plumes through NW Canada and spreading them out to 45 N, we can bury our head in the winter sand of it all, like a cat hiding their head in a brown paper bag while their tail and ass sticks out thinking that is their world and they are all safe. LOL    ...seriously, my cat used to do that when it gets scared. It's pretty funny

[CoastalWx]

Just now, Snowcrazed71 said:

Serious question. Why do do most of the METs ( at least wfsb and wvit ) always seem to use the Euro maps. They don't seem to put any Credence on the GFS. I noticed that's pretty much what they show when they show the storms coming in. I guess they still feel that the euro is the stronger and more reliable model. Just wondering everyone's thoughts?

Some may use euro maps to show a storm scenario, but my guess is the actual forecast is based on some sort of blend.

[dendrite]

3 minutes ago, Snowcrazed71 said:

Serious question. Why do do most of the METs ( at least wfsb and wvit ) always seem to use the Euro maps. They don't seem to put any Credence on the GFS. I noticed that's pretty much what they show when they show the storms coming in. I guess they still feel that the euro is the stronger and more reliable model. Just wondering everyone's thoughts?

It’s because of the wealth of free data ecmwf provides. 

[WinterWolf]

11 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

You can be “safe” and go cold/dry like much of January. Or you can play with fire and reap the rewards (or failure)…but no guts, no glory. 
 

This is as good as a pattern as we could ever hope for in a La Niña February. 

Now this is perspective…thanks for the reality.   We gamble and take our shots..if it fails, so be it and we call it a rat.  Rather have the look and shots that are lining up, than the other way around as you pointed out. 

[WinterWolf]

10 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

Right so even on that pattern if we are going playoff Aaron Judge it’s time to focus on draft season. 

Only time will tell if it’s Judge, or Jeter(Mr Clutch).  Let’s go Derek. 

[cleetussnow]

10 hours ago, WinterWolf said:

Lol…and where are the trolls?  Hmm. 

Regrouping at Greta’s house

[ineedsnow]

21 minutes ago, dendrite said:

Bad black ice last night…yikes. Had a trace of snow too. 
 

Down to 26.8°. Pack is at 9”. 

Just went to Walmart in Gardner. The parking lot was pure black ice.. 

[CoastalWx]

18 minutes ago, WinterWolf said:

Only time will tell if it’s Judge, or Jeter(Mr Clutch).  Let’s go Derek. 

Let’s get a David Ortiz bloop single.

[CoastalWx]

For the record, no complaints...love the look. But we need some action I think next week.

[ORH_wxman]

12 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

Let’s get a David Ortiz bloop single.

Forget that. Let’s go this

 

[CoastalWx]

Just now, ORH_wxman said:

Forget that. Let’s go this

 

LOL, yes that hopefully comes early March. Just trying to get the rally going. But maybe we HR next week?

[Allsnow]

2 hours ago, CoastalWx said:

We patchy 

 

[ROOSTA]

So, everyone thinking there's still a chance. Salvage the season?
Reminisce of that April 1st of yore was epic. Took a personal day off from work, telling my co-workers it was going to be a humdinger. Garden Apartment in Everett Ma. awoke to the entrance buried all in about 6hrs overnight.
Being removed from New England I personally would rather have seen a storm a week to track.
Interest has turned into tracking, watching events regardless of location occurrence.  

[WinterWolf]

21 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

For the record, no complaints...love the look. But we need some action I think next week.

Agreed.  I’m kind of like let’s see what each one brings..looking to far ahead with potential threats can get blurry…and distort things too. But let’s get the rally going.  

[Damage In Tolland]

This can’t be synoptic snow in Japan. Must be lake effect type stuff . This is wild 

https://x.com/volcaholic1/status/1886740762546581968?s=46&t=dhcbvkjmRcyBVQtDxJ3lRg

https://x.com/volcaholic1/status/1886759214665576452?s=46&t=dhcbvkjmRcyBVQtDxJ3lRg

[Snowcrazed71]

9 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

This can’t be synoptic snow in Japan. Must be lake effect type stuff . This is wild 

https://x.com/volcaholic1/status/1886740762546581968?s=46&t=dhcbvkjmRcyBVQtDxJ3lRg

https://x.com/volcaholic1/status/1886759214665576452?s=46&t=dhcbvkjmRcyBVQtDxJ3lRg

I don't think there's any lakes there as I believe the city's right on the ocean. I think this is more enhancement from the sea than it is from a lake, but I could be mistaken. I'm somewhat familiar with that area and landscape... I just don't recollect any big lakes close to that City

[cleetussnow]

15 minutes ago, Snowcrazed71 said:

I don't think there's any lakes there as I believe the city's right on the ocean. I think this is more enhancement from the sea than it is from a lake, but I could be mistaken. I'm somewhat familiar with that area and landscape... I just don't recollect any big lakes close to that City

This.  This part of Japan has some of the best cold source and moisture combos in the world, save for the high peaks.  We're talking Sea of Japan and Siberian cold.

[powderfreak]

39 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

This can’t be synoptic snow in Japan. Must be lake effect type stuff . This is wild 

https://x.com/volcaholic1/status/1886740762546581968?s=46&t=dhcbvkjmRcyBVQtDxJ3lRg

https://x.com/volcaholic1/status/1886759214665576452?s=46&t=dhcbvkjmRcyBVQtDxJ3lRg

Ocean effect. 

[40/70 Benchmark]

32 minutes ago, Snowcrazed71 said:

I don't think there's any lakes there as I believe the city's right on the ocean. I think this is more enhancement from the sea than it is from a lake, but I could be mistaken. I'm somewhat familiar with that area and landscape... I just don't recollect any big lakes close to that City

Not THAT is  Circle JERK....

[mahk_webstah]

48 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

This can’t be synoptic snow in Japan. Must be lake effect type stuff . This is wild 

https://x.com/volcaholic1/status/1886740762546581968?s=46&t=dhcbvkjmRcyBVQtDxJ3lRg

https://x.com/volcaholic1/status/1886759214665576452?s=46&t=dhcbvkjmRcyBVQtDxJ3lRg

48” in less than 12 hours is what danbury New Hampshire had in that December 2020 storm. We got most of our 28 inches in about a six hour period. I think Brian got 34 inches in the storm and Danbury is another 10 miles north if that.

[CoastalWx]

Ray can blog about the VA burial on the GFS next week.

[UnitedWx]

2 hours ago, ORH_wxman said:

Forget that. Let’s go this

 

SWING AND A DRIVE! Lets Go

[Spanks45]

17 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

Ray can blog about the VA burial on the GFS next week.

GFS and CMC....honestly no bullseyes this far out, keep the storm around, but I guess suppression is a worry too...