DavisStraight Posted Sunday at 03:19 PM Share Posted Sunday at 03:19 PM 10 minutes ago, WinterWolf said: Yup. And before 85 it was worse. Except April 82(spring blizzard); Feb 83(Big Feb storm); March 84 had a couple pretty good ones. But by and large it wasn’t good at all. That was one good thing in the 80s, we seemed to have a few good March storms, the cold was also good for skiing since they make snow. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OceanStWx Posted Sunday at 03:36 PM Share Posted Sunday at 03:36 PM Last night's results are in The PFM is our Point Forecast Matrix that falls directly out of the forecast grids. We run this verification twice a day to capture highs and lows, and typically over 100 absolute bias degrees is not great. Always fun to curb stomp MOS. 6 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted Sunday at 03:40 PM Share Posted Sunday at 03:40 PM MOS really struggled in the last rad cold shot too. EC 2m temps have been vastly outperforming it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OceanStWx Posted Sunday at 03:55 PM Share Posted Sunday at 03:55 PM 14 minutes ago, dendrite said: MOS really struggled in the last rad cold shot too. EC 2m temps have been vastly outperforming it. I have no information to back this up, but I don't know if it is something to do with MOS being wound down. Are the bothering to develop/maintain it when the NBM MOS is going to become the new standard. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SouthCoastMA Posted Sunday at 04:22 PM Share Posted Sunday at 04:22 PM GFS again moving north for next weekend. tenuous for Southern parts of SNE Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted Sunday at 04:27 PM Share Posted Sunday at 04:27 PM 46 minutes ago, dendrite said: MOS really struggled in the last rad cold shot too. EC 2m temps have been vastly outperforming it. I'm interesting it that guidance in summer Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted Sunday at 04:30 PM Share Posted Sunday at 04:30 PM the 6th and the 9th in the GFS solutions lately look quite similar 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted Sunday at 04:31 PM Share Posted Sunday at 04:31 PM Could be a good pack up this way in the next 10 days. 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted Sunday at 04:35 PM Share Posted Sunday at 04:35 PM Feb 14/21 mix. Lots of QPF snow Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted Sunday at 04:36 PM Share Posted Sunday at 04:36 PM A couple of nice rainers for the southern half of sne there. 1 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SouthCoastMA Posted Sunday at 04:37 PM Share Posted Sunday at 04:37 PM Just now, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said: A couple of nice rainers for the southern half of sne there. yeah euro/euro ai tough to beat this winter Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mahk_webstah Posted Sunday at 04:39 PM Share Posted Sunday at 04:39 PM 7 minutes ago, dryslot said: Could be a good pack up this way in the next 10 days. The nickels and dimes, some meat, and then some quarters and a half dollars on top of that. It’s gonna be good. 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kitz Craver Posted Sunday at 04:41 PM Share Posted Sunday at 04:41 PM GFS definitely ticking warmer for Thursday and Sunday. A nod to the EURO IMO. 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted Sunday at 04:41 PM Share Posted Sunday at 04:41 PM 1 minute ago, SouthCoastMA said: yeah euro/euro ai tough to beat this winter I’ve had 6ft of gfs snow. Dr No and his robot know. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWolf Posted Sunday at 04:47 PM Share Posted Sunday at 04:47 PM 3 minutes ago, Kitz Craver said: GFS definitely ticking warmer for Thursday and Sunday. A nod to the EURO IMO. Regarding Sunday, its an eternity away…I wouldn’t get to caught up in individual Op runs at this juncture, they’re gonna oscillate as always…just keep a storm in play, details TBD. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DJln491 Posted Sunday at 04:49 PM Share Posted Sunday at 04:49 PM 30 minutes ago, SouthCoastMA said: GFS again moving north for next weekend. tenuous for Southern parts of SNE I'll be enjoying the light event tonight bc for CT it may be the best event of the week, unless the Euro trends 500 miles south for both Thurs and Sun edit: check that, the EPS for sunday still looks ok. thurs is trash Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DJln491 Posted Sunday at 05:00 PM Share Posted Sunday at 05:00 PM 11 minutes ago, WinterWolf said: Regarding Sunday, its an eternity away…I wouldn’t get to caught up in individual Op runs at this juncture, they’re gonna oscillate as always…just keep a storm in play, details TBD. agreed the OP run at the moment is an extreme northern outlier 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted Sunday at 05:04 PM Share Posted Sunday at 05:04 PM These setups though can trend milder. Even the GEFS mean is tricky for next weekend. Yes, I understand how far out it is and the variability...but it would be very wise to keep expectations in check for now. I definitely think next weekend has more wintry upside vs Thursday. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted Sunday at 05:11 PM Share Posted Sunday at 05:11 PM That's a crazy fantastic look on this operational GFS for the clown range, tho holy cryo shit. Massive nodal blocking in the epo and nao, with a 504 dm SPV over Wisconsin - nICE 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWolf Posted Sunday at 05:13 PM Share Posted Sunday at 05:13 PM 8 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: These setups though can trend milder. Even the GEFS mean is tricky for next weekend. Yes, I understand how far out it is and the variability...but it would be very wise to keep expectations in check for now. I definitely think next weekend has more wintry upside vs Thursday. Agreed. And expectations are very low on my part…just keep a storm on the models for next Sunday at this point imo. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted Sunday at 05:13 PM Share Posted Sunday at 05:13 PM 7 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: These setups though can trend milder. Even the GEFS mean is tricky for next weekend. Yes, I understand how far out it is and the variability...but it would be very wise to keep expectations in check for now. I definitely think next weekend has more wintry upside vs Thursday. They can also trend colder too when you have these type of airmasses in place and a high trying to hold on near Houlton…good for front enders. Hopefully the sludgy cold airmass wins out. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted Sunday at 05:17 PM Share Posted Sunday at 05:17 PM 3 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said: They can also trend colder too when you have these type of airmasses in place and a high trying to hold on near Houlton…good for front enders. Hopefully the sludgy cold airmass wins out. Yep that's possible too. I guess I just don't want people getting all bummed out in case it's a messy deal. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted Sunday at 05:19 PM Share Posted Sunday at 05:19 PM Just now, CoastalWx said: Yep that's possible too. I guess I just don't want people getting all bummed out in case it's a messy deal. Anyone who has tracked these types of events for more than a few years should know what the deal is. It’s on them if they think it’s going to be 2015. 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWolf Posted Sunday at 05:19 PM Share Posted Sunday at 05:19 PM Just now, CoastalWx said: Yep that's possible too. I guess I just don't want people getting all bummed out in case it's a messy deal. At this point…bring the mess. It can’t get much worse. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SouthCoastMA Posted Sunday at 05:23 PM Share Posted Sunday at 05:23 PM 41 minutes ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said: I’ve had 6ft of gfs snow. Dr No and his robot know. "Not a robot. A cyborg. A cybernetic organism." 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SouthCoastMA Posted Sunday at 05:24 PM Share Posted Sunday at 05:24 PM CMC maybe held serve or slighty flatter next weekend. I guess lets see if the Euro's can tick south over time and we can stay mostly snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted Sunday at 05:34 PM Share Posted Sunday at 05:34 PM AI is pretty good next weekend. Might be some mix or rain in srn areas, but that would work. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted Sunday at 05:46 PM Share Posted Sunday at 05:46 PM 10 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: AI is pretty good next weekend. Might be some mix or rain in srn areas, but that would work. OP Euro is much colder next weekend than 00z as well…nice thump in front end with the classic bent back ML WF 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mahk_webstah Posted Sunday at 05:59 PM Share Posted Sunday at 05:59 PM 40 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: Yep that's possible too. I guess I just don't want people getting all bummed out in case it's a messy deal. I think we know who those people are. Or maybe that one particular person. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DJln491 Posted Sunday at 06:14 PM Share Posted Sunday at 06:14 PM much flatter hopefully the beginning of a trend. she haulin though Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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