ORH_wxman Posted January 31 Share Posted January 31 On 1/31/2025 at 6:51 PM, Typhoon Tip said: For now hold... but geesh! not impossible that we're seeing the local hemisphere through winter goggles. I'm guilty of it too. Models are going to struggle with that boundary - that's a slam dunk for poor performance. Unfortunately ...about top shelf premium error magnitude exists across where ever that is Expand Yeah this is the type of pattern that is about as bad as it gets for model guidance in the medium/long range. Very high gradient with fast flow and an emphasis on what is going on in the fast flow coming out of the arctic regions which even in the age of satellite data is poor coverage up there. I’d expect lots of big shifts. Something that may look good at 6-7 days out could easily be congrats Montreal at verification…and vice versa. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowcrazed71 Posted January 31 Share Posted January 31 On 1/31/2025 at 6:33 PM, mahk_webstah said: This is a good moment for you to jump in with one of your posts. I’m sure you probably just wait, model run after model run, until you find a good one to comment on! Expand I blocked is Arse.... Rather not even see is malarkey! 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted January 31 Share Posted January 31 @CoastalWx, 12z euro actually destroys the 50mb vortex faster…obliterated by d11-12. Something to watch… 5 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted January 31 Share Posted January 31 On 1/31/2025 at 6:54 PM, ORH_wxman said: Yeah this is the type of pattern that is about as bad as it gets for model guidance in the medium/long range. Very high gradient with fast flow and an emphasis on what is going on in the fast flow coming out of the arctic regions which even in the age of satellite data is poor coverage up there. I’d expect lots of big shifts. Something that may look good at 6-7 days out could easily be congrats Montreal at verification…and vice versa. Expand Perfectly stated! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted January 31 Share Posted January 31 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DavisStraight Posted January 31 Share Posted January 31 On 1/31/2025 at 6:57 PM, Snowcrazed71 said: I blocked is Arse.... Rather not even see is malarkey! Expand I just skip right over them, no need to block. 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWolf Posted January 31 Share Posted January 31 On 1/31/2025 at 6:28 PM, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said: Poor Wolfie. Expand Nothing wrong here. That won’t be the final outcom…And even if it’s somewhat right….where I go sledding is still in the snow. 1 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 31 Share Posted January 31 On 1/31/2025 at 6:58 PM, ORH_wxman said: @CoastalWx, 12z euro actually destroys the 50mb vortex faster…obliterated by d11-12. Something to watch… Expand Turn it 90degrees and it looks like the eyes from Johhny#5 Short Circuit. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 31 Share Posted January 31 But anyways yeah that works. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NittanyWx Posted January 31 Share Posted January 31 On 1/31/2025 at 6:46 PM, kdxken said: Dendrite tips his cap. Expand Certainly not accurate on an HDD basis. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kdxken Posted January 31 Share Posted January 31 Winter of yore 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted January 31 Share Posted January 31 Much colder look on 18z GFS for next week. Some legit icing in that overrunner. 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted January 31 Share Posted January 31 On 1/31/2025 at 8:16 PM, NittanyWx said: Certainly not accurate on an HDD basis. Expand 6th coldest Jan at UNV since 2000. lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted January 31 Share Posted January 31 On 1/31/2025 at 8:55 PM, kdxken said: Winter of yore Expand 5 years ago that would’ve been Dec +0.6 and Jan -0.1. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted January 31 Share Posted January 31 So the “cold over-performed all month” but couldn’t get BDL or ORH below normal? Lol 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowedin Posted January 31 Share Posted January 31 On 1/31/2025 at 7:03 PM, Allsnow said: Expand Days and days of cold rain with an occasional sloppy finish. Should be a fun time around here.. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Prismshine Productions Posted January 31 Share Posted January 31 On 1/31/2025 at 11:45 PM, Snowedin said: Days and days of cold rain with an occasional sloppy finish. Should be a fun time around here..Vermont:Ice Ice baby Sent from my SM-S156V using Tapatalk 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted January 31 Share Posted January 31 CON will finish Jan at 21.0° which is -1.3° 5 years ago that would’ve been +0.4 15 years ago … +0.9 25 years ago … +2.4 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DavisStraight Posted February 1 Share Posted February 1 On 1/31/2025 at 10:48 PM, ORH_wxman said: Much colder look on 18z GFS for next week. Some legit icing in that overrunner. Expand Pond ice isn't going anywhere, should get nice and thick. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kdxken Posted February 1 Share Posted February 1 On 1/31/2025 at 11:49 PM, dendrite said: CON will finish Jan at 21.0° which is -1.3° 5 years ago that would’ve been +0.4 15 years ago … +0.9 25 years ago … +2.4 Expand Yeah pretty amazing how cold it's been this year with the warming climate. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kdxken Posted February 1 Share Posted February 1 On 2/1/2025 at 12:15 AM, DavisStraight said: Pond ice isn't going anywhere, should get nice and thick. Expand That's the big difference about this year. Not that it's been strikingly cold but the melts sure have been slow. Past couple years snow stayed on the ground for an afternoon at best. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowcrazed71 Posted February 1 Share Posted February 1 On 2/1/2025 at 12:23 AM, kdxken said: That's the big difference about this year. Not that it's been strikingly cold but the melts sure have been slow. Past couple years snow stayed on the ground for an afternoon at best. Expand Maybe the Snow melts have been slow, but the human melts..... Not so much ( I can attest to that..lol ). 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kdxken Posted February 1 Share Posted February 1 On 1/31/2025 at 11:35 PM, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said: So the “cold over-performed all month” but couldn’t get BDL or ORH below normal? Lol Expand Everyone knows those sites are a joke. Why the national weather service is allowed to taint this record cold Is a shame. Trump will straighten it out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted February 1 Share Posted February 1 On 2/1/2025 at 12:26 AM, kdxken said: Everyone knows those sites are a joke. Why the national weather service is allowed to taint this record cold Is a shame. Trump will straighten it out. Expand Sharpie turning the +1F to -11F. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxWatcher007 Posted February 1 Share Posted February 1 On 1/31/2025 at 11:35 PM, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said: So the “cold over-performed all month” but couldn’t get BDL or ORH below normal? Lol Expand BDL is * though. Being serious. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted February 1 Share Posted February 1 On 2/1/2025 at 12:43 AM, WxWatcher007 said: BDL is * though. Being serious. Expand So is ORH. Both are running warm. Lack of radiating this month though was going to make BDL a little higher anyway. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted February 1 Share Posted February 1 I’d argue radiating was average. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted February 1 Share Posted February 1 On 2/1/2025 at 12:57 AM, dendrite said: I’d argue radiating was average. Expand If that’s the case then a lot of westerly downslope flow this month may make BDL still a bit warmer even when you adjust for their ASOS bias. They ran 1.4F ahead of ORH and their biases are fairly similar though BDL might be a few tenths worse, but that still leaves roughly a degree difference. Anyways, pretty flaccid cold departures in January relative to the very cold mid-level departures. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted February 1 Share Posted February 1 On 2/1/2025 at 1:02 AM, ORH_wxman said: If that’s the case then a lot of westerly downslope flow this month may make BDL still a bit warmer even when you adjust for their ASOS bias. They ran 1.4F ahead of ORH and their biases are fairly similar though BDL might be a few tenths worse, but that still leaves roughly a degree difference. Anyways, pretty flaccid cold departures in January relative to the very cold mid-level departures. Expand BDL and ORH were both +0.9 on mins coming into today, but who the hell knows what the nightly errors are anymore. There was a stretch of some good cold mixing nights early and then there was a week where BDL was crushing ORH on mins. And with the lack of precip I just figured it was probably close to average rad. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxWatcher007 Posted February 1 Share Posted February 1 On 2/1/2025 at 12:55 AM, ORH_wxman said: So is ORH. Both are running warm. Lack of radiating this month though was going to make BDL a little higher anyway. Expand Yeah +1.2 (not including today) isn’t a disaster. BDR is -1.6. At home my monthly average is 27.4°. By far my coldest the last few years. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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