February 2025 Disco/Obs Thread

[TheMainer]

6 minutes ago, WinterWolf said:

Yes, Last year was a friek up there. The year before(‘23) they killed it in March, I was there the 3/30 through 4/2 with tremendous conditions, and cold temps.  So it usually is very good up there in mid March most years.  Just like anything else, sometimes things don’t work out. But most times they do. 

Yeah last year was the only march/April snow that was useless, my average snowmobile end date is April 15th within 30 mins of my house, not doing big groomed trail routes, but a lot of 150-200 Mile logging road and lake days

[ORH_wxman]

8 minutes ago, weathafella said:

He actually shows a strong snow weenie who is telling it as he sees it.  Believe me get him a  12 burger and he’ll rejoice.

Yeah there's optimistic snow weenies and pessimistic ones, but they both love snow. I mean, Ji in the mid-atlantic was the biggest snow weenie for years but he was always so cynical until the snow was on his doorstep. I don't think Luke is as cynical as Ji, but just pointing out the directional similarity....you can be pessimistic and still love it.

[RUNNAWAYICEBERG]

13 minutes ago, WinterWolf said:

He’s been jaded…it’s affecting him.  I need to bust his ass back sometimes too, so I understand. 

No jade. Call it like I see it. When winter returns and disrobing is warranted, I’ll unzip. Unfortunately there’s been nothing worth doing so…cold/dry or a queefed out two inch clipper doesn’t relocate my hand below the waistline anymore. 

[George001]

1 hour ago, Typhoon Tip said:

I feel like simplifying all this is the pathway of least regret ...

So long as these multi-source ens means continue show this (centered on Feb 10), winter is within reach.   

We will have our chances but I have a few concerns with this pattern.

1. The orientation of the western ridge is SW to NE, not north-south. 

2. The western ridge axis is too far west

3. The troughing over the central US is broad, and there are very high heights over the SE. This doesn’t look like an amplified pattern. 
 

[WinterWolf]

1 minute ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said:

No jade. Call it like I see it. When winter returns and disrobing is warranted, I’ll unzip. Unfortunately there’s been nothing worth doing so…cold/dry or a queefed out two inch clipper doesn’t relocate my hand below the waistline anymore. 

I get that part. All in fun. 

[FXWX]

51 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

What’s meaningless to you is not to others. 

I guess... Can't argue that!  Lol

[George001]

3 minutes ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said:

No jade. Call it like I see it. When winter returns and disrobing is warranted, I’ll unzip. Unfortunately there’s been nothing worth doing so…cold/dry or a queefed out two inch clipper doesn’t relocate my hand below the waistline anymore. 

Yeah, looks like more fast flow garbage to me. I’m sick of the fast zonal flow, hard to get huge storms in that pattern. I wouldn’t say no to smaller storms, but it’s hard to get excited about a pattern that doesn’t have that monster blizzard upside.

[UnitedWx]

4 hours ago, ORH_wxman said:

My first winter back up here near ORH as a very young snow weenie was 1988-89…horrific for snowfall. But it was pretty cold. Awful combo. There were others before that in the ‘80s. 

I graduated High School in '88. At the time we were in the 80s building biom and rough wiring houses all through winter. SO cold to the point sometimes we'd have problems with wires cracking 

[UnitedWx]

3 hours ago, HoarfrostHubb said:

It's just incredibly boring.  No real warm days, few cold days, and those are generally nothing super cold.  No decent storms

Reminds me a bit of 2015-2016

Only solace there, if you put any stock in history repeating is that 2016-17 was very nice... 

[RUNNAWAYICEBERG]

13 minutes ago, George001 said:

Yeah, looks like more fast flow garbage to me. I’m sick of the fast zonal flow, hard to get huge storms in that pattern. I wouldn’t say no to smaller storms, but it’s hard to get excited about a pattern that doesn’t have that monster blizzard upside.

Yea. We’ll have to squeeze out what we can. No biggies. 

[CoastalWx]

50 minutes ago, weathafella said:

He actually shows a strong snow weenie who is telling it as he sees it.  Believe me get him a  12 burger and he’ll rejoice.

If you show anything other than positivity, the fangs come out. 

[Damage In Tolland]

It’s been looking confluent sheared out fast PAC flow . It’s the same pattern just not as cold . It’s not a snowy or overly wet. Just fast moving light events where the farther north you are the better chances of winter . Pretty easy to read 

[weathafella]

24 minutes ago, George001 said:

Yeah, looks like more fast flow garbage to me. I’m sick of the fast zonal flow, hard to get huge storms in that pattern. I wouldn’t say no to smaller storms, but it’s hard to get excited about a pattern that doesn’t have that monster blizzard upside.

In my 78 years, monster blizzards outside of the high mountains (Rockies, Sierras) are rare.  You have the misfortune of growing up when they were more common but going back 250 years won’t find all that many.  And now we’re balancing the scales.  I can recall even in the great periods when 6+ was big time.

[Go Kart Mozart]

I may be wrong, but isn't a gradient pattern, Caribbean Ridge, compressed flow, etc.....part and parcel of a Nina regime?

In other words, tough to get a stemwinder?

 

[ORH_wxman]

37 minutes ago, Go Kart Mozart said:

I may be wrong, but isn't a gradient pattern, Caribbean Ridge, compressed flow, etc.....part and parcel of a Nina regime?

In other words, tough to get a stemwinder?

 

Yes. La Niña typically has SE ridge though that has not been the case this January but it is showing up for February. Most La Niñas don’t have big coastals in February. If they occur, they usually occur earlier in the winter or later like in the month of March. But it’s not impossible…there’s been exceptions to the rule. I think the best chance of a true big dog coastal this winter will be in March. Doubly so if we get a late SSW in early February which has a chance of happening. That’s actually what happened in 2001 and 2018 which both produce huge blocking and huge coastals in March those years. 

[Typhoon Tip]

23 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

Yes. La Niña typically has SE ridge though that has not been the case this January but it is showing up for February. Most La Niñas don’t have big coastals in February. If they occur, they usually occur earlier in the winter or later like in the month of March. But it’s not impossible…there’s been exceptions to the rule. I think the best chance of a true big dog coastal this winter will be in March. Doubly so if we get a late SSW in early February which has a chance of happening. That’s actually what happened in 2001 and 2018 which both produce huge blocking and huge coastals in March those years. 

And just to be fair to the other side of the equation ... this is also related to why La Nina's can feature early springs.   

Obviously ...with that standing wave up there near Alaska this year, and any down-welling SSW notwithstanding, that would be more difficult  lol.   Still, if those fail, while this SE ridge is trying to exert, things can turn ugly for winter enthusiasts pretty fast.  

Recently I posted about these aspects.  We've also been getting those weird Feb and Mar warm bursts about ever other or every other other year since 2012 so that's kind of out there, too. 

Just something to be objectively leery about.   For the time being (in outlooks) winter enthusiasts appear to be safe. 

[Snowcrazed71]

1 hour ago, CoastalWx said:

If you show anything other than positivity, the fangs come out. 

Touche!!! Lol

[WinterWolf]

1 hour ago, CoastalWx said:

If you show anything other than positivity, the fangs come out. 

Nahhh, not true at all.  No problem when it looks bad, and folks saying so.  
 

Thing with this winter so far, it hasn’t looked bad overall, but we can’t seem to time anything right. Or we get a shit streak that bones us, or we get a monster -NAO that pushes everything way down south….that sucks.  But it happens, and that’s where we’ve been to date for the most part.  Nothing ya can do. 

[ineedsnow]

I know they get snow every year but this is even big for them on the Hawaii summits 

.WINTER STORM WARNING IN EFFECT FROM NOON TODAY TO 6 AM HST
SATURDAY...

* WHAT...Heavy snow expected. Total snow accumulations of 12 to 24
  inches. Winds gusting as high as 85 mph will result in
  considerable blowing and drifting of the snow.

* WHERE...Big Island Summits

[ineedsnow]

Hawaii's 6.5-inch record was set at Haleakalā on Maui at an elevation of about 10,000 feet on Feb. 2, 1936.

[dendrite]

18 minutes ago, ineedsnow said:

Hawaii's 6.5-inch record was set at Haleakalā on Maui at an elevation of about 10,000 feet on Feb. 2, 1936.

The summits get more than that.

[Layman]

7 hours ago, CoastalWx said:

It’s not like I came in here canceling winter and melting like snowcrazed and yelling at Jerry calling him an old man.

 

Here’s something positive, the GEFS look better than the EPS. Feet of snow coming.

 

2 hours ago, weathafella said:

In my 78 years, monster blizzards outside of the high mountains (Rockies, Sierras) are rare.  You have the misfortune of growing up when they were more common but going back 250 years won’t find all that many.  And now we’re balancing the scales.  I can recall even in the great periods when 6+ was big time.

 

Hold up...

 

[ineedsnow]

loop the 18z GFS between hr 234 and 294.. what is that off the coast?  Norlun?

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/

[dendrite]

15 minutes ago, ineedsnow said:

loop the 18z GFS between hr 234 and 294.. what is that off the coast?  Norlun?

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/

Yes

[DavisStraight]

32 minutes ago, dendrite said:

Yes

My new house is going to be in a good spot for Norluns, I recall my sister getting a couple over the years and I'll be next door.

[SouthCoastMA]

Thats a 3/12/92 redux - those don't happen very often. Another notable one is 2/19/93 for the outer cape. 

[mahk_webstah]

1 hour ago, ineedsnow said:

loop the 18z GFS between hr 234 and 294.. what is that off the coast?  Norlun?

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/

That’s a lot of precip the next 15 days

[Torch Tiger]

5 hours ago, Damage In Tolland said:

It’s been looking confluent sheared out fast PAC flow . It’s the same pattern just not as cold . It’s not a snowy or overly wet. Just fast moving light events where the farther north you are the better chances of winter . Pretty easy to read 

yeah easy, light events/light impacts.  frequent but minimal for some

[Torch Tiger]

tick tock

[HIPPYVALLEY]

1 minute ago, Torch Tiger said:

tick tock

I would push those temp max zones at least 100mi south.  Just sayin'