February 2025 Disco/Obs Thread

[ORH_wxman]

50 minutes ago, dendrite said:

The coldest month of our lives is currently…

BDL +1.1
ORH -0.1
BOS -1.1

To be fair, ORH and BDL are persona non grata if we want unbiased ASOS. 

[dendrite]

2 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

To be fair, ORH and BDL are persona non grata if we want unbiased ASOS. 

I covered that. 

[dryslot]

Lot of beer in here today, A lot of it.

[ORH_wxman]

2 minutes ago, radarman said:

Definitely the big cold departure days, 21st to 23rd yeah.  But the first half of the month was super windy out here and we weren't radiating very well at all.  27 high 22 low type days with no precip.  The real feel was more BN than the actual, at least for a while.  Less the 2nd half, but even the last 3 nights have been breezy.

First few days of the month were mild too…so that helped bake in some warm departures before we got the several weeks of colder wx. 
 

That said, the cold departures definitely underperformed due to lack of radiational cooling. I also think the lack of deep snow cover over a lot of the northeast moderates the temps too…because the H5 height anomalies are like -100dm over us for this month. Can’t really blame it on AGW…maybe a very small component on the rad pits, but even the high temps “under performed” for cold given the upper levels. 

[TauntonBlizzard2013]

1 hour ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said:

Thank you for being objective.

Need more of it.

Comfortably sitting in the single digits for snow on the year, again. 
 

Jan 30th, clock is ticking. Spring will be here soon enough 

[ineedsnow]

GFS coming a bit south again.. its going to be so close here 

[CoastalWx]

GFS looks nice from Ineeddongs to Ray on north. Ticked south.

[SouthCoastMA]

1 minute ago, TauntonBlizzard2013 said:

Need more of it.

Comfortably sitting in the single digits for snow on the year, again. 
 

Jan 30th, clock is ticking. Spring will be here soon enough 

I can't remember a worse start to the winter down here. At least in late Jan 2012 we had that 10-11" incher that scraped the south coast..which accounted for about 70% of our season total. Nothing like that looks imminent. Could be heading toward an all timer if we don't capitalize in the next week or two. 

[CoastalWx]

15 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

I’m def not fully aligned with tulips and mild wx…we have a deeply -EPO which can produce warm episodes if we wind up to the east of a system…often very warm at that…but I don’t see it sustained at all. The EPO cold-loads Canada so it doesn’t take much to bring arctic air back into here.
 

We get one or two runs where the models flex the SE ridge into Quebec and all of the sudden I’m supposed to believe it? Eh…I’ll believe it when I see it much closer.

Again, not talking about a 1 day 60-65F warm sector either…those can happen easily if you cut a system to Detroit or BUF in this pattern. But I’m not throwing in the towel on winter wx the rest of the month…as much as I might want to old-yeller this winter. 

Obviously I was joking about outdoor seating on 2/14. I'm surprised that somehow was interpreted at factual.

 

I don't know..that orientation scares me. Seems like we've seen that last couple of winters. I don't debate up to the 10th has a chance. 

[wx2fish]

1 minute ago, ineedsnow said:

GFS coming a bit south again.. its going to be so close here 

It's close, but that's a pretty solid thump SNH down to maybe down to your area. I think there will be a decent fronto band and pretty meh outside where the sets up

[Damage In Tolland]

12 minutes ago, dryslot said:

Lot of beer in here today, A lot of it.

Couple of these guys are all cocked up 

[George001]

im glad to see the realistic posts about where we are at this winter and how things look, rather than the whole “oh just wait until Feb 10th” or even the whole “Wait until late Feb-early Mar, SSW will save us” bullshit. When you are kicking the can 10+ days during what is supposed to be PEAK SNOW CLIMO, thats a ratter.

[CoastalWx]

Just now, George001 said:

im glad to see the realistic posts about where we are at this winter and how things look, rather than the whole “oh just wait until Feb 10th” or even the whole “Wait until late Feb-early Mar, SSW will save us” bullshit. When you are kicking the can 10+ days during what is supposed to be PEAK SNOW CLIMO, thats a ratter.

Well hold on there, you shouldn't be forecasting by just saying what is coming is the same shit as what we had. It's a wetter look and we have some chances from now to the 10th. My worry is that the period after could be dicey.

 

But maybe it works out....nobody knows at this point. If that shifts SE a bit then we roll in the snow. I'm just not excited about it currently. 

[dendrite]

I’m still selling the goofus. Looks too far north and overdone. 

[ineedsnow]

GFS likes Sunday night 

[40/70 Benchmark]

31 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

I’m def not fully aligned with tulips and mild wx…we have a deeply -EPO which can produce warm episodes if we wind up to the east of a system…often very warm at that…but I don’t see it sustained at all. The EPO cold-loads Canada so it doesn’t take much to bring arctic air back into here.
 

We get one or two runs where the models flex the SE ridge into Quebec and all of the sudden I’m supposed to believe it? Eh…I’ll believe it when I see it much closer.

Again, not talking about a 1 day 60-65F warm sector either…those can happen easily if you cut a system to Detroit or BUF in this pattern. But I’m not throwing in the towel on winter wx the rest of the month…as much as I might want to old-yeller this winter. 

Yes, exactly. 

[40/70 Benchmark]

14 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

Obviously I was joking about outdoor seating on 2/14. I'm surprised that somehow was interpreted at factual.

 

I don't know..that orientation scares me. Seems like we've seen that last couple of winters. I don't debate up to the 10th has a chance. 

Then why did you tell me to look at a model when I called you out on it??

[HoarfrostHubb]

4 minutes ago, ineedsnow said:

GFS likes Sunday night 

Yeah... a couple inches...maybe 4 for some folks... its kind of alone right now

[HoarfrostHubb]

Just now, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Then why did you tell me to look at a model when I called you out on it??

He is a broken man

[RUNNAWAYICEBERG]

17 minutes ago, TauntonBlizzard2013 said:

Need more of it.

Comfortably sitting in the single digits for snow on the year, again. 
 

Jan 30th, clock is ticking. Spring will be here soon enough 

Don’t stress. Apparently there is alot of winter left and the cold has overperformed. Everything will work out and if it doesn’t, we have next winter. Stay merry…

[40/70 Benchmark]

This is not the last few months of February...doesn't mean that it will be great, or even particularly enjoyable, but it is what it is.

[brooklynwx99]

49 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

No I mean compare. 

WxBell is 91-20 climo and TT is 81-10 climo, hence the discrepancy

[HoarfrostHubb]

1 minute ago, brooklynwx99 said:

WxBell is 91-20 climo and TT is 81-10 climo, hence the discrepancy

That seems odd

[bwt3650]

1 hour ago, dendrite said:

The coldest month of our lives is currently…

BDL +1.1
ORH -0.1
BOS -1.1

Not even close...but back out the first 3 days of Jan, and it's a decent negative departure at a lot of sites, compared to some plus 5-8 over the last 15 years.  It's def felt cold and windy for me both in Jay and in NJ.  I'm sure the -6 in 2009 would have been fun.

[HoarfrostHubb]

Pivotal 12z GFS seems stuck at 60

[CoastalWx]

5 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Then why did you tell me to look at a model when I called you out on it??

Because it seemed like you didn’t even see that look as being potentially warm. Clearly it is on guidance.

[ineedsnow]

1 minute ago, HoarfrostHubb said:

Pivotal 12z GFS seems stuck at 60

a few sites are behind.. TT is working just missing random hours

[Sey-Mour Snow]

5 minutes ago, brooklynwx99 said:

WxBell is 91-20 climo and TT is 81-10 climo, hence the discrepancy

Thank you so WxBell is actually more accurate lmao. 

[CoastalWx]

5 minutes ago, brooklynwx99 said:

WxBell is 91-20 climo and TT is 81-10 climo, hence the discrepancy

So CC adjusted and still ass. 

[CoastalWx]

6 minutes ago, brooklynwx99 said:

WxBell is 91-20 climo and TT is 81-10 climo, hence the discrepancy

Increments are more detailed on TT. Still ass. You’re using a warmer baseline and still meh.