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February 2025 Disco/Obs Thread

Torch Tiger

By Torch Tiger,
in New England

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SouthCoastMA
SouthCoastMA

One more post like that, feeding time

cleetussnow
cleetussnow
weathafella
weathafella

I am offended by being called old!  78 is the new ….wait I guess I’m old…..

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CoastalWx

CoastalWx

Posted
Posted

It's unfortunate the ridge of course aligns SW-NE over AK because that would be a good overrunning look in the 11-15 day. But that orientation might allow for Tips troughs folding into CA and then screwing us.  Just hope later next week works out. Maybe a few inches here and there from Rt 2 on north prior to that.

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TheMainer

TheMainer

Posted
Posted
2 minutes ago, jbenedet said:

Leave it to the Nam for a wholesale shift inside 36 hours. 

The 6z Euro continues to tick warmer at 850, and is all rain even here in SE NH.

 

I always feel bad for the SNE guys when it rains down there, but besides remote workers (myself included) and the couple mills that are left this area relies heavily on winter tourism which is primarily snowmobiling. Another year of poor registrations and I think you'll see more clubs start to fold as it's mostly volunteers that are aging out. Whenever dryslot or dendrite is happy usually we are too. 

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Typhoon Tip

Typhoon Tip

Posted
Posted
1 hour ago, CoastalWx said:

Outdoor seating by Valentines Day?

 

IMG_0230.png

Euro's 00z ( I realize was not out yet when you posted this above....) was a big pig N/A trough with an endlessly 'denial enabling'  hope that this is still 1996's climate ( lol ).  

Then there was the GFS with it's thing, which for all intent and purpose was continued on the 06z. 

If you're a winter enthusiasts ...these are quite alluring.

If you're a end winter, warm weather enthusiasts, your frustration is really not that these models are engaging in those practices ... It's that they are doing so with -PNAs.    Or so it it thought -

Therein is the weird thing.  Depending on what source, the teleconnectors are being computed somehow differently enough that there are varied index values.  The CPC looks like it's trying to lift the PNA positive... Other sources are as low as -2 SD.   Those to have whopper giantly different implications of the flow structure over the continent.  

One thing they all have, though, is a -EPO burst between now and Feb 4th ...5th...  This will likely load more cold into N/A...  It seems prior to ironing out the PNA in the longer term, that cold in the foreground is going to cause flow compression ( at minimum consequence, most likely ...).  That supports a gradient footprint and rapid wave translations through the mid latitudes.   The GFS more than less is honoring that expectation, though I wouldn't buy a car from it's selling points on any particular one of them.   Just to identifying expected behavior is all...  

Not sure I buy the operational Euro's look until the PNA gets figured out beyond..

If the PNA become more "correct" as a low index state, however, while also the EPO index relaxes like both the EPS/GEFs suggest ( Feb 10 or so ), then we probably emerge more spring intrusion in the guidance with possibilities for early tastes even up here.  

I've been on the fence for 5 days now and the uncertainty dial has been stuck.

 

 

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ORH_wxman

ORH_wxman

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11 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

Couple threats and then later in  the 11-15 looks warm. Same crap. 

11-15 has been very volatile recently. I will also note that a lot of those warm looks have gotten colder as we get closer. 

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CoastalWx

CoastalWx

Posted
Posted
5 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

11-15 has been very volatile recently. I will also note that a lot of those warm looks have gotten colder as we get closer. 

Pretty good agreement though. We'll see, that's how I'm leaning. I just hope next week works out for something.

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Typhoon Tip

Typhoon Tip

Posted
Posted
16 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

11-15 has been very volatile recently. I will also note that a lot of those warm looks have gotten colder as we get closer. 

This has been the case over these last several weeks of mid winter pattern bias.   However, I'm not personally sure that is supported as much moving forward.   I guess we won't know until we can test that, huh.

We've enjoyed episodic +PNA's alternating between -EPOs since mid Dec.  That's about perfect - whether or not this has generated snow storms as a result ?   mm,  that's like the perturbation on the dice.   I think the compression in the flow is a non-linear negative interference pattern but that's probably going to stop people from reading any further so will defer.  haha  

But the PNA is different beyond this weekend's deal depending on the source.  That bold is annoying!    Meanwhile, there are hints in the spatial presentation of the ens means for elevating height along the EC/TV/SE regions, though..  That's a strong hint that there is an underpinning tendency for a pattern change away from the persistent NE Pacific dominating circulation mode - or at least a conflict.  I also bear in mind the big heat burst phenomenon in February's and March's since 2012, occurring regardless of ENSOs and other longer term index aspect, and think of those as significant enough to be considered.  

 

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40/70 Benchmark

40/70 Benchmark

Posted
Posted
30 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

Ironically despite the rhetoric in here, the EPS mean is about as snowy as it’s been all winter out to the end of the run. 
 

It’s somewhat high variance as is often the case in a gradient pattern, but it shows that there are likely multiple threats and a decent number of the ensemble members are producing solid snow events in them. 

Yea, not sure what Scooter is talking about with the picnic weather vibe

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WinterWolf

WinterWolf

Posted
Posted
29 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

Ironically despite the rhetoric in here, the EPS mean is about as snowy as it’s been all winter out to the end of the run. 
 

It’s somewhat high variance as is often the case in a gradient pattern, but it shows that there are likely multiple threats and a decent number of the ensemble members are producing solid snow events in them. 

As you said..you would never know it with the posts in here…And from some solid posters too.   I don’t get it?  When the EPS looks bad..they’re all over it. When it looks good, they’re still saying it looks bad. Lol. Talk about jaded shit.  WTF?  
 

Obviously when the EPS looks good it must be wrong. And when it looks bad, it must be right.  I guess that’s what it’s become. Thank you to Will and John(FXWX) and Seymour for providing some objectivity in here. 

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Typhoon Tip

Typhoon Tip

Posted
Posted
6 minutes ago, WinterWolf said:

As you said..you would never know it with the posts in here…And from some solid posters too.   I don’t get it?  When the EPS looks bad..they’re all over it. When it looks good, they’re still saying it looks bad. Lol. Talk about jaded shit.  WTF?  
 

Obviously when the EPS looks good it must be wrong. And when it looks bad, it must be right.  I guess that’s what it’s become. Thank you to Will and John(FXWX) and Seymour for providing some objectivity in here. 

There seems to be a pattern here of crediting certain posters with objectivity, so long as their opinions provide a winter-like lean    haha

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CoastalWx

CoastalWx

Posted
Posted
9 minutes ago, WinterWolf said:

As you said..you would never know it with the posts in here…And from some solid posters too.   I don’t get it?  When the EPS looks bad..they’re all over it. When it looks good, they’re still saying it looks bad. Lol. Talk about jaded shit.  WTF?  
 

Obviously when the EPS looks good it must be wrong. And when it looks bad, it must be right.  I guess that’s what it’s become. Thank you to Will and John(FXWX) and Seymour for providing some objectivity in here. 

You're hammered. I've commented on here many times when the EPS looked good. Get the snowflakes out of your eyes. 

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WinterWolf

WinterWolf

Posted
Posted
5 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said:

There seems to be a pattern here of crediting certain posters with objectivity, so long as their opinions provide a winter-like lean    haha

That’s not it at all..your intuition is off on that one.  Objectivity is exactly what I am crediting them for…because that’s what they are doing. 

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