February 2025 Disco/Obs Thread

[Torch Tiger]

3 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

Feb looks to be another BN qpf month 

where? lol

[WinterWolf]

6 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

You snagged 12 of these on your line . A foot long!! 
   

 

Looks like you have a big IPA on your line…

[Damage In Tolland]

37 minutes ago, Sey-Mour Snow said:

Except everything shows that lmao..

 

15 day anomaly shows above average precip with a gradient pattern.. just like when I posted it this weekend, nothing has changed.. 

 

Again.. that is not a wet pattern. You posted that last weekend. It’s the same thing we’ve seen them show for Jan . It’s a fast flow, confluent  meat grinder pattern . Let’s see how verification looks end of winter Feb 28th

[Damage In Tolland]

32 minutes ago, Torch Tiger said:

where? lol

Northeast 

[WinterWolf]

14 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

Again.. that is not a wet pattern. You posted that last weekend. It’s the same thing we’ve seen them show for Jan . It’s a fast flow, confluent  meat grinder pattern . Let’s see how verification looks end of winter Feb 28th

Ya lol..cuz it never snows in SNE in March. .    More ridiculous Nonsense.  Forecast in Tolland tonight is for 3-6 …IPA’s

[FXWX]

55 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

You keep talking about it and nothing looks like it . Feb looks to be another BN qpf month 

Beg to differ Kev...  I think the emerging layout of the east PAC and N.A. moving forward into and through early / mid Feb argues, in my mind, for normal to above normal qpf.  Note I am not calling for above normal snow... But I do like the signal or more frequent qpf events that "collectively" will come close to or possibly exceed normal by a bit.  I like the potential for multiple SWFE's; possibly with some weak redevelopment events...  And I would not dismiss the threat for decent snow/mix/ice events for the region, as a whole with the exception of the coastal plain.  Could I be wrong? Sure!  But the evolving pattern is not going to mimic our most recent 6 to 8 week pattern.

[WinterWolf]

Thank you John for some honest and accurate insight, it’s appreciated.  

[40/70 Benchmark]

I don't see February as a dry month....will be a matter of where the gradient ends up for more often than not.

[40/70 Benchmark]

49 minutes ago, FXWX said:

Beg to differ Kev...  I think the emerging layout of the east PAC and N.A. moving forward into and through early / mid Feb argues, in my mind, for normal to above normal qpf.  Note I am not calling for above normal snow... But I do like the signal or more frequent qpf events that "collectively" will come close to or possibly exceed normal by a bit.  I like the potential for multiple SWFE's; possibly with some weak redevelopment events...  And I would not dismiss the threat for decent snow/mix/ice events for the region, as a whole with the exception of the coastal plain.  Could I be wrong? Sure!  But the evolving pattern is not going to mimic our most recent 6 to 8 week pattern.

Complete agreement.

[CoastalWx]

1 hour ago, FXWX said:

Beg to differ Kev...  I think the emerging layout of the east PAC and N.A. moving forward into and through early / mid Feb argues, in my mind, for normal to above normal qpf.  Note I am not calling for above normal snow... But I do like the signal or more frequent qpf events that "collectively" will come close to or possibly exceed normal by a bit.  I like the potential for multiple SWFE's; possibly with some weak redevelopment events...  And I would not dismiss the threat for decent snow/mix/ice events for the region, as a whole with the exception of the coastal plain.  Could I be wrong? Sure!  But the evolving pattern is not going to mimic our most recent 6 to 8 week pattern.

Agree. Whether we benefit in not sure, but does look “wetter” for sure.

[FXWX]

38 minutes ago, WinterWolf said:

Thank you John for some honest and accurate insight, it’s appreciated.  

All I can do is tell folks what the pattern looks like to me moving forward based on large-scale pattern and modeling trends, as well decades of experience.   I'm in the business of telling clients what I think; nothing more / nothing less.  I'm not trying to forecast a specific qpf number or root for or dismiss snow potential.  I would say my confidence level is at least moderate.  I am also not saying we are looking at 5 or 10 inches of qpf over the next 2 to 3 weeks, but I will say I will be surprised if the amounts of qpf stay as meager as they have been.  I have been asked by several contractors over the past few days about the frequency of precipitation events moving forward; strictly for business planning purposes.  This is what I have related to them.  I understand everyone's frustration with this winter's pattern, but I do believe there was a decent signal that it would struggle in the qpf department given the late summer / fall trends.  And while I would not suggest we are ready to get off and running into a long-lasting way above normal precip pattern for the late winter and/or spring period, I do think the short/medium term pattern looks more promising for active weather.  If I'm wrong, I'm wrong, but I can't tell a client its just going to stay BN qpf just because it has been, when the pattern appears to be shifting...  

[FXWX]

14 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

I don't see February as a dry month....will be a matter of where the gradient ends up for more often than not.

Yes indeed... that's certainly the look to me...

[40/70 Benchmark]

3 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

Agree. Whether we benefit in not sure, but does look “wetter” for sure.

Yea, doesn't necessarily mean above normal snowfall....though my hunch is it's better than December and January for a lot of us (not saying much).

[40/70 Benchmark]

6 minutes ago, FXWX said:

All I can do is tell folks what the pattern looks like to me moving forward based on large-scale pattern and modeling trends, as well decades of experience.   I'm in the business of telling clients what I think; nothing more / nothing less.  I'm not trying to forecast a specific qpf number or root for or dismiss snow potential.  I would say my confidence level is at least moderate.  I am also not saying we are looking at 5 or 10 inches of qpf over the next 2 to 3 weeks, but I will say I will be surprised if the amounts of qpf stay as meager as they have been.  I have been asked by several contractors over the past few days about the frequency of precipitation events moving forward; strictly for business planning purposes.  This is what I have related to them.  I understand everyone's frustration with this winter's pattern, but I do believe there was a decent signal that it would struggle in the qpf department given the late summer / fall trends.  And while I would not suggest we are ready to get off and running into a long-lasting way above normal precip pattern for the late winter and/or spring period, I do think the short/medium term pattern looks more promising for active weather.  If I'm wrong, I'm wrong, but I can't tell a client its just going to stay BN qpf just because it has been, when the pattern appears to be shifting...  

Well, if we are correct about February, then 2/3 of the winter will have featured above average QPF.

I envision light to moderate, mixed QPF events about every 3-5 days this month.....SWF will be the name of the game-

[Go Kart Mozart]

13 minutes ago, FXWX said:

Yes indeed... that's certainly the look to me...

This may be wishful thinking on my part, but I wonder if an extended MJO stay in the COD is just what the doctor ordered.  Strong forcing seems to have forced jack-shit...in all octants.

[Typhoon Tip]

NAM with a wholesale correction S but it’s warmish 

[CoastalWx]

Decent run now near NH border. Large shift south but then again 18z was a large shift north. 

[weathafella]

5 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

Decent run now near NH border. Large shift south but then again 18z was a large shift north. 

NAM is “like a box of chocolates, you never know what you’re gonna get”

[ineedsnow]

32 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

Decent run now near NH border. Large shift south but then again 18z was a large shift north. 

Icon came south  

[ineedsnow]

0z Reggie, NAM and ICON has 3 to 5 or so here..  hoping the trend continues with the rest of the 0z suite 

[Prismshine Productions]

0z Reggie, NAM and ICON has 3 to 5 or so here..  hoping the trend continues with the rest of the 0z suite 

Hoping that the moisture gets beefed up, but won't complain about another nickle

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[Prismshine Productions]

Nice to see me and @HIPPYVALLEY having some serious pull down here in the valley

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[weathafella]

Boundary seems almost right along the pike per gfs.  Sagging south with time.  Another 20-30 miles bring literally millions of folks into a more wintry outcome.

[HIPPYVALLEY]

1 hour ago, ineedsnow said:

0z Reggie, NAM and ICON has 3 to 5 or so here..  hoping the trend continues with the rest of the 0z suite 

Just sit back and relax. 

[HIPPYVALLEY]

27 minutes ago, weathafella said:

Boundary seems almost right along the pike per gfs.  Sagging south with time.  Another 20-30 miles bring literally millions of folks into a more wintry outcome.

I think that’s what’s coming. 

[ineedsnow]

9 minutes ago, HIPPYVALLEY said:

Just sit back and relax. 

GFS is great! and after the snow we had otg, last nights storm and the squalls today were actually starting to build a pack..   we winter and we take! 

[ineedsnow]

storm after storm on the 0z GFS

[Prismshine Productions]

storm after storm on the 0z GFS

That storm on the 8th tho

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[weathafella]

33 minutes ago, HIPPYVALLEY said:

I think that’s what’s coming. 

That’s the trend tonight at least.

[ineedsnow]

this whole GFS run is great!