weathafella Posted Sunday at 05:58 PM Share Posted Sunday at 05:58 PM 3 minutes ago, George001 said: I’ll believe it when I see the snow falling. This keeps happening, the models show big snows a week out and then the rug pull happens in the short range. Can’t even trust it even 1 day out, the gfs and euro had me getting a fairly significant storm last time and I only got a minor snowfall. They had 6-8, you got what…5? I think if that’s correct your expectations need some work. Maybe I’m misremembering but this was always a fast quick hitting system and we got that albeit a bit shorter. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted Sunday at 06:26 PM Share Posted Sunday at 06:26 PM 27 minutes ago, weathafella said: They had 6-8, you got what…5? I think if that’s correct your expectations need some work. Maybe I’m misremembering but this was always a fast quick hitting system and we got that albeit a bit shorter. Yeah outside of a rogue run or two, I don’t recall models showing a huge event last Sunday. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted Sunday at 06:30 PM Share Posted Sunday at 06:30 PM 2 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: Yeah outside of a rogue run or two, I don’t recall models showing a huge event last Sunday. GFs had 8-12” several runs in a row around D3 but euro never bit except the one rogue 12z run (maybe 1.5 runs if you include that 06z run for eastern areas)…but yeah, if you were drinking GFS kool-aid while euro was not biting, then that’s on you. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DavisStraight Posted Sunday at 06:30 PM Share Posted Sunday at 06:30 PM 36 minutes ago, George001 said: I’ll believe it when I see the snow falling. This keeps happening, the models show big snows a week out and then the rug pull happens in the short range. Can’t even trust it even 1 day out, the gfs and euro had me getting a fairly significant storm last time and I only got a minor snowfall. I don't know, there hasn't been too many of them compared to other years, as long as we get something out of it, doesn't have to be two feet but a major snow storm would make us happy. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted Sunday at 06:33 PM Share Posted Sunday at 06:33 PM 2 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said: GFs had 8-12” several runs in a row around D3 but euro never bit except the one rogue 12z run (maybe 1.5 runs if you include that 06z run for eastern areas)…but yeah, if you were drinking GFS kool-aid while euro was not biting, then that’s on you. Yeah maybe like day 3-4, but even then the flags were out with the model discrepancies. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
George001 Posted Sunday at 06:37 PM Share Posted Sunday at 06:37 PM 44 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said: GFs had 8-12” several runs in a row around D3 but euro never bit except the one rogue 12z run (maybe 1.5 runs if you include that 06z run for eastern areas)…but yeah, if you were drinking GFS kool-aid while euro was not biting, then that’s on you. Yeah can’t really argue with that, the NWS and none of the TV mets bought it. My weather app was saying 5-6 inches of snow for me starting from 3 days out and stayed in that range. Well, the gfs is doing it again giving my area 2 feet of snow a week out and this time I’m not buying it. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted Sunday at 06:38 PM Share Posted Sunday at 06:38 PM EPS looks really suppressed. Might not even be much of anything on that look. Prob not the worst thing this far out though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted Sunday at 06:42 PM Share Posted Sunday at 06:42 PM Not exactly a zonked signal there. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted Sunday at 07:00 PM Share Posted Sunday at 07:00 PM For now, we blend, and we hope 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Prismshine Productions Posted Sunday at 07:28 PM Share Posted Sunday at 07:28 PM 27 minutes ago, HoarfrostHubb said: For now, we blend, and we hope one thing that I recall from the last system is how suppressed the Euro and EPS both were before they came late to the party and moved NW Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted Sunday at 07:35 PM Share Posted Sunday at 07:35 PM 34 minutes ago, HoarfrostHubb said: For now, we blend, and we hope And hopefully Mother Nature doesn’t bend us and say nope. 6 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UnitedWx Posted Sunday at 07:50 PM Share Posted Sunday at 07:50 PM 20 minutes ago, Prismshine Productions said: one thing that I recall from the last system is how suppressed the Euro and EPS both were before they came late to the party and moved NW This is true. The GFS was about as Northwest as the guidance went and the Euro slowly shifted north. In the end they kind of met in the middle, however in some ways it seemed the GFS had more of the right idea sooner 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowcrazed71 Posted Sunday at 08:17 PM Share Posted Sunday at 08:17 PM 27 minutes ago, UnitedWx said: This is true. The GFS was about as Northwest as the guidance went and the Euro slowly shifted north. In the end they kind of met in the middle, however in some ways it seemed the GFS had more of the right idea sooner I guess I'd rather see it here than well north of us. There's plenty of time to shift. It could easily shift back North again, but this is better than what it originally was showing. We track. We hope 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted Sunday at 08:18 PM Share Posted Sunday at 08:18 PM https://x.com/lclimateguy/status/1883590228692336797?s=46&t=dhcbvkjmRcyBVQtDxJ3lRg 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted Sunday at 08:20 PM Share Posted Sunday at 08:20 PM Posts a kuchie map of 25” with fzra and ip just to the south. Clown. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted Sunday at 08:46 PM Share Posted Sunday at 08:46 PM 25 minutes ago, dendrite said: Posts a kuchie map of 25” with fzra and ip just to the south. Clown. there's another solution - you could disallow X reposts ... hahaha 2 2 1 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted Sunday at 09:33 PM Share Posted Sunday at 09:33 PM The best model we’ve got AI has a solid snow and ice storm CNE and interior SNE Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DavisStraight Posted Sunday at 09:40 PM Share Posted Sunday at 09:40 PM 1 hour ago, Damage In Tolland said: https://x.com/lclimateguy/status/1883590228692336797?s=46&t=dhcbvkjmRcyBVQtDxJ3lRg Thats not ugly, it's beautiful. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted Sunday at 10:12 PM Share Posted Sunday at 10:12 PM 3 hours ago, George001 said: Yeah can’t really argue with that, the NWS and none of the TV mets bought it. My weather app was saying 5-6 inches of snow for me starting from 3 days out and stayed in that range. Well, the gfs is doing it again giving my area 2 feet of snow a week out and this time I’m not buying it. Eric Fisher bought it...he was going 10-14". 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted Sunday at 10:13 PM Share Posted Sunday at 10:13 PM Man from rain to suppressed. lol. Maybe not a bad thing as Will said earlier. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted Sunday at 10:14 PM Share Posted Sunday at 10:14 PM Stein 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ineedsnow Posted Sunday at 10:34 PM Share Posted Sunday at 10:34 PM maybe the recon flight out west will help with some extra data.... AF309 Unassigned MissionType: Unknown | Status: En RouteAs of 22:24 UTC Jan 26, 2025: Aircraft Position: 36.42°N 127.25°WBearing: 270° at 387 ktAltitude: 9481 gpmPeak 10-second Wind: 62 kt at 4°Extrapolated Sea-level Pressure: N/A 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Go Kart Mozart Posted Sunday at 11:50 PM Share Posted Sunday at 11:50 PM 1 hour ago, ineedsnow said: maybe the recon flight out west will help with some extra data.... AF309 Unassigned MissionType: Unknown | Status: En RouteAs of 22:24 UTC Jan 26, 2025: Aircraft Position: 36.42°N 127.25°WBearing: 270° at 387 ktAltitude: 9481 gpmPeak 10-second Wind: 62 kt at 4°Extrapolated Sea-level Pressure: N/A What are they looking for, a drone swarm? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted Sunday at 11:51 PM Share Posted Sunday at 11:51 PM 1 hour ago, CoastalWx said: Man from rain to suppressed. lol. Maybe not a bad thing as Will said earlier. Not the euro 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ineedsnow Posted Sunday at 11:57 PM Share Posted Sunday at 11:57 PM 5 minutes ago, MJO812 said: Not the euro ya Euro shifted back north at 18z and comes in earlier 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
George001 Posted Monday at 12:07 AM Share Posted Monday at 12:07 AM 1 hour ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: Eric Fisher bought it...he was going 10-14". Ouch, that’s a big whiff. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ineedsnow Posted Monday at 02:51 AM Share Posted Monday at 02:51 AM just a bit of dry air from that recon mission 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Torch Tiger Posted Monday at 03:16 AM Author Share Posted Monday at 03:16 AM wowzers! what a winter 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted Monday at 03:27 AM Share Posted Monday at 03:27 AM Icon is rain except for interior NH , VT and Maine for this weekend 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mreaves Posted Monday at 03:37 AM Share Posted Monday at 03:37 AM 9 minutes ago, MJO812 said: Icon is rain except for interior NH , VT and Maine for this weekend Luckily, that’s where I’ll be. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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