February 2025 Disco/Obs Thread

[OceanStWx]

9 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

You’ll have to translate that one.  

Bend over here it comes again

[CoastalWx]

Just now, OceanStWx said:

Bend over here it comes again

We’ll use that going forward. 

[Chrisrotary12]

I see the GFS is now a cutter to Chicago for the 2nd. Perfect. 

[Allsnow]

4 minutes ago, Chrisrotary12 said:

I see the GFS is now a cutter to Chicago for the 2nd. Perfect. 

Euro Ai is cutter after cutter as temperatures spike into the 50’s

[Chrisrotary12]

Just now, Allsnow said:

Euro Ai is cutter after cutter as temperatures spike into the 50’s

Even better.

[Prismshine Productions]

Euro Ai is cutter after cutter as temperatures spike into the 50’s

We need the precip, I think even the most heartened snow lover would agree we need the rain over fluffy fun times before the dry season sets in

Sent from my SM-S156V using Tapatalk

[ORH_wxman]

EPS has a decent number of SWFE members for that early Feb threat....could be a cutter, but could also end up colder. That's what you get in a gradient pattern.

[Typhoon Tip]

40 minutes ago, Chrisrotary12 said:

I see the GFS is now a cutter to Chicago for the 2nd. Perfect. 

You didn't ask me but ... we're 2 gears in the wave #'s away from this being a better snow year, locally.

Uh... what? 

Basically, thees "+PNA" modes are dubious.  As I was defining the design for Go Cart whatever his/her name is ... the ridge component of the PNA's have been very persistently westerly biased.  The canonical +PNA is not typically a ridge along 120 W.   That spatial idiosyncratic distribution is also drawing the EPO numerics down, which it should.  But the overlap is rising the PNA, and we think...  great!   -EPO with +PNA, what can go wrong?

Unfortunately, the idiosyncratic devil is that the ridge position skews/offsets the ability for large scale meridian flow structure east of the Rockies across the expanse of the continent.  We end up with a nice N flow tendency in the troposphere along the cordillera out there, but then it turns ENE.  There's less impetus there after for the stream mechanics to orient into a more curvi-linear trough.   That's the physical manifestation of emerging negative wave interference.  

But here's the 2 gears aspect:  If we move the ridge axis say ... 10 degrees of longitude E, that allows the eastern continent curvature to respond, but this is still too far west ( slightly...).   Lakes cutters result.  That's gear 1.  If we then reposition the western ridge another 10 longitude E again, then the trough anchors more over Lakes, which shifts the storm track more toward the east coast.  

But here's the aspect that skews this idealized position schematic:  the compression in the flow.  It's a wild card...one that is a result of cold boreal heights associated with season, pressing S into a mid and lower latitude that is ( more than convention would like to admit ) staggering to recede due to attribution.   There was probably no real hope of any kind for those model runs over the last month, that phased those deep scary bombs, to ever happen.. Because A, the trough was too flat from the pattern foot,  while B, the flow along it so fast that the S stream is too likely to outpace the subsuming N/stream.  It was always model bullshit.

This thing for GHD ... is tricky as to how it evolves in "this gear"

[Torch Tiger]

most if not all want that 0z vibe. Hopefully 12z torches early Feb

[klw]

1 hour ago, Prismshine Productions said:

We need the precip, I think even the most heartened snow lover would agree we need the rain over fluffy fun times before the dry season sets in

Sent from my SM-S156V using Tapatalk
 

I would argue we need to build the pack first.  If it rains now, it will wipe out the pack and little will be absorbed by the frozen soil.  If we build the pack and rain later then the pack will absorb it and build the liquid content.  Then when it melts gradually in the Spring it will release it slowly and allow for better absorption and consistent feeding of streams through late Spring.

[Cyclone-68]

Winter here is getting to be like a bad relationship. If it doesn’t love me anymore then why the hell should I love it?

[CoastalWx]

ULL's effing us all winter. Now the one in CA pulls out and effs us with ptype probably on 2/2. Classic.

[Snowcrazed71]

25 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

ULL's effing us all winter. Now the one in CA pulls out and effs us with ptype probably on 2/2. Classic.

Time to wrap it up! Another Winter lost to the abyss

[dryslot]

Februweenie going to go up in flames too.

[Sey-Mour Snow]

3 minutes ago, dryslot said:

Februweenie going to go up in flames too.

She’s not going to lets us out. After the early Feb cutter and mini torch it looks active with plenty of cold nearby, looks good for at least CNE+ NNE, let’s see what plays out. 

[ORH_wxman]

2 minutes ago, Sey-Mour Snow said:

She’s not going to lets us out. After the early Feb cutter and mini torch it looks active with plenty of cold nearby, looks good for at least CNE+ NNE, let’s see what plays out. 

EPS trying to send most of the CONUS back into the deep freeze int he 2nd week of February. We'll see. Hopefully we can score something if there's going to be cold around.

[Sey-Mour Snow]

8 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

EPS trying to send most of the CONUS back into the deep freeze int he 2nd week of February. We'll see. Hopefully we can score something if there's going to be cold around.

GEPS and GEFS look similar, GEFS has cold more in the west central US.  Ton of pacific blocking on all ensembles.  Hell of a cold signal thus far out, I’m not sure I’ve ever seen such a strong signal this far out. 

[Typhoon Tip]

17 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

EPS trying to send most of the CONUS back into the deep freeze int he 2nd week of February. We'll see. Hopefully we can score something if there's going to be cold around.

Conventionality would have it that going from a 'deep freeze' to a 'relative warmup' back to a 'deep freeze' would feature something taking place along the inflections...

[Typhoon Tip]

Yeah, that 12z EPS mean is a pretty significant continuity break comparing to the previous few cycles, which showed a more coherent pattern change.   It wasn't exactly a 'warm' pattern it was signaling, but definitely off the cold throttle quite a bit.  

This particular 12z cycle mean definitely regresses to cold, however.

[Typhoon Tip]

I kind of would be leery of a warm burst in February to be totally honest.  Oh my personal druthers would have me lavishing in it - but the analytical version of self would be wondering, because uuuusually?    3 to 5 days after the warm event, the -NAO is sitting over head like a pachydermal circus mishap... and it starts episodically reloading for 5.5 weeks or something, too -

That's what happened in 2018... we had a 70s warm burst, then a couple of coastals in March that I personally would rather not have experience.  heh. 

[dryslot]

The snow hasn't been there but the cold has been persistent.

[Typhoon Tip]

36 minutes ago, Sey-Mour Snow said:

GEPS and GEFS look similar, GEFS has cold more in the west central US.  Ton of pacific blocking on all ensembles.  Hell of a cold signal thus far out, I’m not sure I’ve ever seen such a strong signal this far out. 

What we just came through, back in last December was actually a bit more extreme on these ensemble canvases than this -

[MJO812]

https://x.com/commoditywx/status/1882876000801059023?t=sgbMA2jp23Jxbr5Wzx5wMA&s=19

[Typhoon Tip]

Brian ... can you disallow X reposts?