February 2025 Disco/Obs Thread

[Sey-Mour Snow]

8 minutes ago, Torch Tiger said:

true, but your avg. seasonal snowfall is low enough where you can get most of the way in one great storm ;p

30 year average is between 40-50” in this area. Those big storms don’t come around that often. We get a 20” storm once a decade.. we need 2-3 “ warning plus” snows in this area to reach climo plus several nickel and dimers.

[Typhoon Tip]

43 minutes ago, H2Otown_WX said:

We would have a great month if the EPO were positive (or maybe like neutral?) and the PNA negative I feel, given the configuration of the Atlantic.

PNA distribution is west biased and has been much of the season – predominantly so

… just like the NAO can be east or west.. the correlated weather associated with either is different

That spaced PNA doesn’t allow the trough over eastern North America to dig as much you get these flat trajectories… But also while all that’s happening there’s a separate phenomenon related to gradient overabundance, whether you’re in a gradient pattern or not  

The two of those together are like two strikes before the hitter walks up to the plate

 

[Torch Tiger]

12 minutes ago, Sey-Mour Snow said:

30 year average is between 40-50” in this area. Those big storms don’t come around that often. We get a 20” storm once a decade.. we need 2-3 “ warning plus” snows in this area to reach climo plus several nickel and dimers.

Yeah an 18-24"er is nearly, or close to half average.  Tougher to get the 30" type numbers down that way, but Taunton (and others) on the south shore did it a few years ago.  Most of their seasonal avg

[powderfreak]

14 minutes ago, Sey-Mour Snow said:

30 year average is between 40-50” in this area. Those big storms don’t come around that often. We get a 20” storm once a decade.. we need 2-3 “ warning plus” snows in this area to reach climo plus several nickel and dimers.

This is a good reminder.  I also sometimes think that one good blizzard can make a season in some spots of SNE, but those are exceedingly rare.  This isn’t the Gulf Coast.

Multiple warning events are needed to get to climo and it just hasn’t come close for many so far.

[Prismshine Productions]

25 minutes ago, powderfreak said:

This is a good reminder.  I also sometimes think that one good blizzard can make a season in some spots of SNE, but those are exceedingly rare.  This isn’t the Gulf Coast.

Multiple warning events are needed to get to climo and it just hasn’t come close for many so far.

how are you looking climo wise? 

[powderfreak]

16 minutes ago, Prismshine Productions said:

how are you looking climo wise? 

It’s been an enjoyably average winter up here so far.  After multiple years of winter months with massive departures (like +8 months at times), having sustained cold and sustained snowpack has led to a fun winter to date.  Expectations are low.

Compared to recent years, the consistent cold, dry settled snow on the ground has led to a more normal January vibe.  It isn’t deep, but even a 7-14” of consistently cold snow depth makes for a wintry month.

Mansfield Stake depth at elevation tracking slightly above normal.

@J.Spin with a similar track compared to normal snowfall down at low elevation.  It’s pretty crazy the mirroring going on between the Mansfield summit COOP depth and J.Spin’s snowfall relative to normal.

[ORH_wxman]

46 minutes ago, powderfreak said:

This is a good reminder.  I also sometimes think that one good blizzard can make a season in some spots of SNE, but those are exceedingly rare.  This isn’t the Gulf Coast.

Multiple warning events are needed to get to climo and it just hasn’t come close for many so far.

Also, back where he is, the return rate on those big dogs is a bit lower than a place like E MA. It’s a little harder further away from the moisture source…they’ll get more nickel and dime events there to make up for it….the seasonal average might be similar to a place like interior SE MA but the distribution of snowfalls is a little different. 

[powderfreak]

14 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

Also, back where he is, the return rate on those big dogs is a bit lower than a place like E MA. It’s a little harder further away from the moisture source…they’ll get more nickel and dime events there to make up for it….the seasonal average might be similar to a place like interior SE MA but the distribution of snowfalls is a little different. 

Good point.  The big event climo max is a bit further NE in the means.

[RUNNAWAYICEBERG]

2 hours ago, Torch Tiger said:

true, but your avg. seasonal snowfall is low enough where you can get most of the way in one great storm ;p

Nah. Nice try though. I don’t live in the bronx. We prob avg close to 50” here so even a 20” event that comes once a decade wouldnt do it. 

[H2Otown_WX]

1 hour ago, Typhoon Tip said:

PNA distribution is west biased and has been much of the season – predominantly so

… just like the NAO can be east or west.. the correlated weather associated with either is different

That spaced PNA doesn’t allow the trough over eastern North America to dig as much you get these flat trajectories… But also while all that’s happening there’s a separate phenomenon related to gradient overabundance, whether you’re in a gradient pattern or not  

The two of those together are like two strikes before the hitter walks up to the plate

 

Ok that's actually a really interesting point about the PNA being west based I never considered that. It's fascinating how the EPO and PNA overlap and affect each other similar to the NAO/AO I guess on the other side.

[Torch Tiger]

8 minutes ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said:

Nah. Nice try though. I don’t live in the bronx. We prob avg close to 50” here so even a 20” event that comes once a decade wouldnt do it. 

Your pal just said 40-50

[RUNNAWAYICEBERG]

Just now, Torch Tiger said:

Your pal just said 40-50

Yes and I said closer to 50”. Elevated Southbury. 

[Snowcrazed71]

3 minutes ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said:

Yes and I said closer to 50”. Elevated Southbury. 

Man.. I think it's your turn to take a break. 

[40/70 Benchmark]

6 hours ago, George001 said:

I was optimistic at first, I got really sucked in by the cold and stuck to my guns on that for a while. I initially thought it was just bad luck, we would eventually get hit but then I realized I misread the pattern. The 7 day ensemble mean tells the story, very dry look with BN precip until you roll it forward to 2 weeks. All the “epic” looks leading to whiff after whiff, and now we are in peak snow climo and tracking what is likely another day 10 ghost. In average or good winters you don’t have these extended lull periods during peak climo. You would expect to have 1-2 threats inside 7 days for a 3 or so week period during the heart of winter. We don’t have that

I expected below average snowfall, but this is challenging a record for my area...all for it, at this point...bottom out.

[Damage In Tolland]

8 hours ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

I expected below average snowfall, but this is challenging a record for my area...all for it, at this point...stick it in, my bottom’s out.

Who are you asking to do this?

[UnitedWx]

11 hours ago, powderfreak said:

This is a good reminder.  I also sometimes think that one good blizzard can make a season in some spots of SNE, but those are exceedingly rare.  This isn’t the Gulf Coast.

Multiple warning events are needed to get to climo and it just hasn’t come close for many so far.

This is true. Speaking of climo totals,,, what happened to the thread with everyones YTD totals? 15 inches here so far

[UnitedWx]

1 hour ago, Damage In Tolland said:

Who are you asking to do this?

Sorry, I'm already taken

[Sey-Mour Snow]

9 hours ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said:

Yes and I said closer to 50”. Elevated Southbury. 

Ya elevated Southbury is like 50-55” 30 year average.. sucks last 7 years is like 30-35” 

[RUNNAWAYICEBERG]

31 minutes ago, Sey-Mour Snow said:

Ya elevated Southbury is like 50-55” 30 year average.. sucks last 7 years is like 30-35” 

Nurse Dewy was drunk last night, we forgive him. 
 

This decade has sucked, no other way to  put it. 

[HoarfrostHubb]

1 hour ago, UnitedWx said:

This is true. Speaking of climo totals,,, what happened to the thread with everyones YTD totals? 15 inches here so far

https://www.americanwx.com/bb/topic/61129-2024-2025-new-england-snow/

 

[UnitedWx]

19 minutes ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said:

Nurse Dewy was drunk last night, we forgive him. 
 

This decade has sucked, no other way to  put it. 

Yep, last 8 years have been pretty light, although a few haven't been terrible up my way. The last REALLY nice winter here was '16/'17

[Prismshine Productions]

Nurse Dewy was drunk last night, we forgive him. 
 
This decade has sucked, no other way to  put it. 

So did the 80s snow-wise... 90s repeat coming?

Sent from my SM-S156V using Tapatalk

[DavisStraight]

1 minute ago, Prismshine Productions said:

So did the 80s snow-wise... 90s repeat coming?

Sent from my SM-S156V using Tapatalk
 

I'd take a string of 92/93-93/94-95/96, 94/95 was a dud but 3 out of 4 were really good.

[RUNNAWAYICEBERG]

20 minutes ago, UnitedWx said:

Yep, last 8 years have been pretty light, although a few haven't been terrible up my way. The last REALLY nice winter here was '16/'17

Yea. There’s been some decent ones sprinkled as stench reducing perfume.

[40/70 Benchmark]

3 hours ago, Damage In Tolland said:

Who are you asking to do this?

Mother Nature....thank you, mam, may I have another?

[CoastalWx]

2 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Mother Nature....thank you, mam, may I have another?

In and up?

[CoastalWx]

Just picture Ray’s tushy wiggling around, waiting to present as he stares at a blank snowboard in from of him. 

[OceanStWx]

Just now, CoastalWx said:

Just picture Ray’s tushy wiggling around, waiting to present as he stares at a blank snowboard in from of him. 

BOHICA

[CoastalWx]

3 minutes ago, OceanStWx said:

BOHICA

You’ll have to translate that one.  

[Typhoon Tip]

11 hours ago, H2Otown_WX said:

Ok that's actually a really interesting point about the PNA being west based I never considered that. It's fascinating how the EPO and PNA overlap and affect each other similar to the NAO/AO I guess on the other side.

We have to be careful with this idea of "other side," too.

There really is no 'other side.' 

These domains are inter-correlated (ultimately), which is purely fundamental; its not like there are solid boundaries in the atmosphere, walling off one identity from another, and then these air masses duke it out via storms.    

Time is where the relationships are better exposed, as "weather" is just the sound of these domain spaces "communicating".  Lag correlation becomes very significant.   The NAO, for example.  If one did not see the lag-relationship with the Pacific circulation modes, it might actually look spontaneous, as though aroused from some fractal into materializing, and then exerting on the flow ...etc. In actuality, the NAO is a semi-static wave function that is a result of dispersion mechanics, down stream of the Pacific's wave emergence and decay ( constructive versus destructive interference..)  - this latter aspect is then significantly modulated by the continent of N/A ...

You know it's interesting ... when one really sees and understands that, it's actually less accurate to say the NAO correlates to anything storm-wise.  Because it was the Pacific all along.  The problem is, we don't have the computing power to see how every decimal point in the total wave propagation in space and time, from Japan to Nova Scotia, will exactly drive the NAO biases...  If/when the models are ballooning heights within the NAO domain,  the cause for that has already taken place - so it's not really ever a good idea to use the NAO as a modulator.  It's more of a beacon for where the PNA was.