February 2025 Disco/Obs Thread

[Typhoon Tip]

16 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

Definitely a bit of a gradient look. Going to be hard to lock down stuff this far out, although 2/2 seems to have some signal there. They'll be a few days where it moderates, but certainly not a torch look. PV locked near nrn Hudson Bay which isn't a bad thing. It's just a matter of timing the short waves. 

Agreed, in so far as what this looks like now.  However, it looks like it's got some validity, tho.  It's just too damn early for the flow to go flaccid - that's a latter March climo...  ( but then again with CC who knows, maybe we can chap some denial assess  lol )

The pattern foot appears to still want to change beyond whatever that GHD thing is.  But so long as there is that ens spatial synoptic positive anomaly up near Alaska like that, there's going to be cold available to the Canadian shield, which is an immediate implication for gradient n-s through the continent. 

[qg_omega]

We rubber band 

[Typhoon Tip]

36 minutes ago, qg_omega said:

We rubber band 

there's a pattern change post the 2nd or so of Feb...

it's less than clear what that will mean.  there's been gradient looks.  there's been warm bursts looks.   now, this 12z gfs is trying to change the season to spring across the deep south with a gradient the favors the polar boundary being displaced even NW of the OH River..  00z Euro has the change in it's extended, and is varying as well .. but it did attempt a big storm on the inflection at 00z around 2nd/3rd.  

[RUNNAWAYICEBERG]

3 hours ago, CoastalWx said:

Certainly not as it has been, but I don't think it's a wet look...at least as it looks currently.

You sure about that?

[CoastalWx]

11 minutes ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said:

You sure about that?

Dry vs wet....meaning precip. I don't mean rain necessarily. 

[mahk_webstah]

1 hour ago, qg_omega said:

We rubber band 

Ah, so you are acknowledging it’s been cold

[RUNNAWAYICEBERG]

1 hour ago, CoastalWx said:

Dry vs wet....meaning precip. I don't mean rain necessarily. 

Ah ok. Looks more active yes but we worry it’s more liquid than frozen. Ya know…like the 80s patterns.

[George001]

2 hours ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said:

You sure about that?

Look at the 7 day precip mean on the ensembles…. Fairly dry look for the next 15 days or so. Unfortunately this dry pattern appears to be somewhat locked in. It looks warmer than Jan temp wise, but not a real torch. More of the back and forth we saw in December. Still, not what you want to see during peak snowfall climo. I would say it’s an unfavorable overall look for snow relative to climo. I’m not done tracking storms, but at this point I am throwing in the towel on trying to look for a path to an AN snow winter. We are at the point where 70-80% of average snow is a realistic high end outcome.

[RUNNAWAYICEBERG]

17 minutes ago, George001 said:

Look at the 7 day precip mean on the ensembles…. Fairly dry look for the next 15 days or so. Unfortunately this dry pattern appears to be somewhat locked in. It looks warmer than Jan temp wise, but not a real torch. More of the back and forth we saw in December. Still, not what you want to see during peak snowfall climo. I would say it’s an unfavorable overall look for snow relative to climo. I’m not done tracking storms, but at this point I am throwing in the towel on trying to look for a path to an AN snow winter. We are at the point where 70-80% of average snow is a realistic high end outcome.

Yes I’ve been saying stein is here and he won’t let go. Called a rat pre season and even though it is cooler than I expected, it’s on track. 

[George001]

8 minutes ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said:

Yes I’ve been saying stein is here and he won’t let go. Called a rat pre season and even though it is cooler than I expected, it’s on track. 

I was optimistic at first, I got really sucked in by the cold and stuck to my guns on that for a while. I initially thought it was just bad luck, we would eventually get hit but then I realized I misread the pattern. The 7 day ensemble mean tells the story, very dry look with BN precip until you roll it forward to 2 weeks. All the “epic” looks leading to whiff after whiff, and now we are in peak snow climo and tracking what is likely another day 10 ghost. In average or good winters you don’t have these extended lull periods during peak climo. You would expect to have 1-2 threats inside 7 days for a 3 or so week period during the heart of winter. We don’t have that

[DavisStraight]

22 minutes ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said:

Yes I’ve been saying stein is here and he won’t let go. Called a rat pre season and even though it is cooler than I expected, it’s on track. 

I don't consider it a rat, it's been cold, and we had a white Christmas and lately snow on the ground with frigid temps. sure, I'd love to see more snow, but it looks and feels like winter. To me a rat is way above normal in temps on bare ground for most of the winter.

[MJO812]

Euro weeklies are trending colder for February  pushing back the warmth again .

[ORH_wxman]

4 minutes ago, MJO812 said:

Euro weeklies are trending colder for February  pushing back the warmth again .

It's basically a perpetual gradient pattern right into March.

[512high]

11 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

It's basically a perpetual gradient pattern right into March.

Not to banter, what a waste of cold weather, today seems like a heatwave, gradient pattern, I assume we pop a big storm or two.

[8611Blizz]

If we could get on the clipper train it wouldn't seem like such a waste but so far it's mostly just good for pond hockey.

[ORH_wxman]

4 minutes ago, 512high said:

Not to banter, what a waste of cold weather, today seems like a heatwave, gradient pattern, I assume we pop a big storm or two.

Yeah gradient patterns can be boom or bust....if you just keep ending up on the wrong side of the gradient in each storm system, then it's garbage. But they can be prolific as we've seen in the past too. We'll see how it looks as we get closer....it might not even end up like that, but it's been fairly consistent advertising it.

[mahk_webstah]

28 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

It's basically a perpetual gradient pattern right into March.

When does said gradient pattern actually set in s’il vous plait por favor?

[ORH_wxman]

7 minutes ago, mahk_webstah said:

When does said gradient pattern actually set in s’il vous plait por favor?

Basically the first week of February and goes all month according to weeklies. Take with a grain of salt obviously the further out you go…but I’ll say the weeklies have actually performed pretty well this winter so far. 

[mahk_webstah]

So it sounds like this possible thing around Feb 1-2 is the start.  Makes sense to me that at some point we get a few weeks of good snow 

[Kitz Craver]

Gradient patterns can be epic, however southies quake at the thought of being on the wrong side of the mason Dixon line for snow. 

[ORH_wxman]

Here’s a sample…H5 first set and H85 temp second set

 

[RUNNAWAYICEBERG]

1 hour ago, DavisStraight said:

I don't consider it a rat, it's been cold, and we had a white Christmas and lately snow on the ground with frigid temps. sure, I'd love to see more snow, but it looks and feels like winter. To me a rat is way above normal in temps on bare ground for most of the winter.

I get that but it’s all about snowfall for me. If I end 50% of climo I really don’t care how cold it was or how it made my weenie feel during the holidays. The 80s had a bunch of rats being cold and dry, this is no different imo.

[mahk_webstah]

12 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

Here’s a sample…H5 first set and H85 temp second set

 

That’s a thing of beauty for all NE

[mahk_webstah]

Just now, mahk_webstah said:

That’s a thing of beauty for all NE

The pacific is da bomb

[dendrite]

6 hours ago, qg_omega said:

We rubber band 

Rubberband man?

 

[Typhoon Tip]

Basically ... this has been a semi permanent feature for the last 9 weeks. It's a colder supply, but unfortunately negative interference heading east across the continent for cyclogenesis.   This is the 18z op. GFS.  It's Feb 3, and what/if anything that's happened on GHD is behind ... This run places the hemisphere right back in the same mode...  

[ORH_wxman]

1 hour ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said:

I get that but it’s all about snowfall for me. If I end 50% of climo I really don’t care how cold it was or how it made my weenie feel during the holidays. The 80s had a bunch of rats being cold and dry, this is no different imo.

‘88-89 was fairly cold and one of my worst winters. Just bone dry. We did mix a couple cutters in for fun. But just horrific. This winter is kind of reminding me of that…not quite as cold but similar lack of snow. December was much wetter this winter but since Xmas it’s been fairly similar. 
 

At least I have a warning event this winter. We couldn’t even get one that year. 

[DavisStraight]

1 hour ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said:

I get that but it’s all about snowfall for me. If I end 50% of climo I really don’t care how cold it was or how it made my weenie feel during the holidays. The 80s had a bunch of rats being cold and dry, this is no different imo.

When I was a kid, as much as I loved snow, I ice fished a lot and we skated on a nearby pond, to me that was winter when I could do those two things for a few weeks. That said, we have time left to get more snow, so we'll see where we end up in a few weeks.

[H2Otown_WX]

54 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said:

Basically ... this has been a semi permanent feature for the last 9 weeks. It's a colder supply, but unfortunately negative interference heading east across the continent for cyclogenesis.   This is the 18z op. GFS.  It's Feb 3, and what/if anything that's happened on GHD is behind ... This run places the hemisphere right back in the same mode...  

We would have a great month if the EPO were positive (or maybe like neutral?) and the PNA negative I feel, given the configuration of the Atlantic.

[Torch Tiger]

2 hours ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said:

I get that but it’s all about snowfall for me. If I end 50% of climo I really don’t care how cold it was or how it made my weenie feel during the holidays. The 80s had a bunch of rats being cold and dry, this is no different imo.

true, but your avg. seasonal snowfall is low enough where you can get most of the way in one great storm ;p