February 2025 Disco/Obs Thread

[Damage In Tolland]

When it ends.. it’ll end quickly to spring 

[ORH_wxman]

11 hours ago, George001 said:

I don’t know about that. The MJO plots have it briefly going into phase 4 (relaxation period early Feb?) and then potentially into the cold phases again. My biggest concern is that we will see more of the same, cold and dry. That has been the pattern the first half of winter, often these patterns have a tendency to lock in. Honestly think there is a decent chance we finish the winter with both below normal temps and below normal snowfall, which is very rare especially with the acceleration of climate change. We have seen a tendency towards warm/wet as AGW progresses. It is unfortunate that this cold pattern has not been a snowy one, as cold winters like this are becoming rarer and rarer as our climate warms. It would be nice to capitalize on it and snow when we do get cold weather.

Weeklies weren't warm for second half of February....they had a gradient pattern....lots of cold in northern tier of CONUS. We're kind of on the line near average. Take with a grain of salt this far out of course....but if we do go back into the COD or even skew toward the cold MJO phases, then maybe we don't get the usual Februayr Nina torch and instead keep it closer to normal.

[UnitedWx]

1 hour ago, ORH_wxman said:

Weeklies weren't warm for second half of February....they had a gradient pattern....lots of cold in northern tier of CONUS. We're kind of on the line near average. Take with a grain of salt this far out of course....but if we do go back into the COD or even skew toward the cold MJO phases, then maybe we don't get the usual Februayr Nina torch and instead keep it closer to normal.

That would be a fine thing for once! I'll take my chances being near the divide in February anytime

[Typhoon Tip]

8 hours ago, ORH_wxman said:

Weeklies weren't warm for second half of February....they had a gradient pattern....lots of cold in northern tier of CONUS. We're kind of on the line near average. Take with a grain of salt this far out of course....but if we do go back into the COD or even skew toward the cold MJO phases, then maybe we don't get the usual Februayr Nina torch and instead keep it closer to normal.

At least through the first 10 days of Feb ... the spatial representation ( ens chart mean ) over the hemisphere, doesn't lend to bombastic heat. But these means go to 360 beyond, whence the flow looks annular more so than the previous canonical NE ridge with NW flow through Canada - those same ones that were formerly leading to fantastic expectations now poorly realized  

On the other hand, the numerical teleconnectors have been pretty persistently in a  neutral EPO/ -PNA after about Feb 3 -ish.   With a statically positive AO(NAO) also in the numerics.  This is all presently true in he Euro weeklies, as well as the GEFs extended.  So the rip and read of that is a warm tendency; then combining that with recent year's climate behaviors ... doesn't lend to protracting the cold biases/perceptions very deep into February.   It's entirely within the realm of possibilities that the spatial synoptic graphics begin to present more and more of what these telecons suggest - I've noticed in the past that the former does tend to lead the latter.   

So those two aspects above are somewhat in conflict, at least early on.  I think after Feb 10 there's potential to go either early spring and a rather unceremonious exit, or loading perhaps one last time before doing that anyway. 

I think being realistic about the end game this year is that there are more reasons to presume some sort of warm occurrences and general earlier exit than not. But this is supposition...

There's a subtle impression that some sort of event may set up still in that 28th to 2nd though.  May be a Jan thread thing heh

[Typhoon Tip]

4 hours ago, CoastalWx said:

Gfs trying to do Tippys heat burst. 

Here's the heat burst just coming into the outer range of the guidance -

[DavisStraight]

Ponds should have thick ice before this cold snap ends and last into February. Once it gets pretty thick takes a lot to melt it.

[CoastalWx]

45 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said:

Here's the heat burst just coming into the outer range of the guidance -

Yeah was just commenting on 6z. 

[George001]

Looks like we are looking at a gradient pattern setting up for early Feb

[dendrite]

These d16 warmth posts are going to be very triggering to Greta’s dad. 

[Go Kart Mozart]

Who wants to start the thread...move the heavy traffic off this one.

[40/70 Benchmark]

13 hours ago, Damage In Tolland said:

When it ends.. it’ll end quickly to spring 

I pray. Maybe the most boring winter season my life.

[Typhoon Tip]

shoulda put this over here 

There’s likely a pattern change after the GHD system.  

Not enough ens support at this time for a GH event, but the telecon numerics give some hope to winter enthusiasts. The higher res op versions led the way on this last event … but it was also n/stream driven. This next ordeal is a forced open transiently closed sw low that’s kicked down streamand acts quasi southern stream … different circumstance bearing no similarity. 

Afterward the extended signals the first real cold relaxation in several weeks - not talking about half day cutter warm intrusions … I mean the hemisphere synoptic scaffold.  It may be a thaw or something else … there are conventional reasons that are in play that argue for an earlier winter exit.  We’ll have to see what that looks like in 10 days to two weeks. 

[40/70 Benchmark]

11 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said:

shoulda put this over here 

There’s likely a pattern change after the GHD system.  

Not enough ens support at this time for a GH event, but the telecon numerics give some hope to winter enthusiasts. The higher res op versions led the way on this last event … but it was also n/stream driven. This next ordeal is a forced open transiently closed sw low that’s kicked down streamand acts quasi southern stream … different circumstance bearing no similarity. 

Afterward the extended signals the first real cold relaxation in several weeks - not talking about half day cutter warm intrusions … I mean the hemisphere synoptic scaffold.  It may be a thaw or something else … there are conventional reasons that are in play that argue for an earlier winter exit.  We’ll have to see what that looks like in 10 days to two weeks. 

I wouldn't complain one bit if it ended tomorrow...ready to cut my loses. 

[qg_omega]

3 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

I wouldn't complain one bit if it ended tomorrow...ready to cut my loses. 

Thought you said it can’t be worse than last year snow wise?

[SnoSki14]

6 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

I wouldn't complain one bit if it ended tomorrow...ready to cut my loses. 

Atrocious winter. Cold and dry that will only make drought conditions a lot worse heading into the warm season. 

Big time fire season coming?

[Torch Tiger]

1 hour ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

I pray. Maybe the most boring winter season my life.

50" February in? out? 

Of course that's impossible in Methuen. for Ineedsnow?  50"+ February??

[HIPPYVALLEY]

15 minutes ago, Torch Tiger said:

50" February in? out? 

Of course that's impossible in Methuen. for Ineedsnow?  50"+ February??

Intermittent brief warm ups but it's going to be BN through April Fools.

[40/70 Benchmark]

46 minutes ago, qg_omega said:

Thought you said it can’t be worse than last year snow wise?

It probably won't be...what is your point?

PS: I thought it would be +5 to +7?

[Torch Tiger]

6 minutes ago, HIPPYVALLEY said:

Intermittent brief warm ups but it's going to be BN through April Fools.

Oh, I was talking about snowfall.

Say Ashburnham, MA. 1200'  ELE.  Do you believe they'll see >50" or <50" of snow this February?  

[HIPPYVALLEY]

1 minute ago, Torch Tiger said:

Oh, I was talking about snowfall.

Say Ashburnham, MA. 1200'  ELE.  Do you believe they'll see >50" or <50" of snow this February?  

I think we get a SWFE and maybe a surprise clipper, but cold and dry does not lie.

[Torch Tiger]

48 minutes ago, SnoSki14 said:

Atrocious winter. Cold and dry that will only make drought conditions a lot worse heading into the warm season. 

Big time fire season coming?

it's actually a decent winter.  Not to sound old

[Torch Tiger]

1 minute ago, HIPPYVALLEY said:

I think we get a SWFE and maybe a surprise clipper, but cold and dry does not lie.

Yeah, no real signals for a "big 'un" besides that D11 ? but it'll probably modulate into something different next few runs. I hate the cold but enjoy the sun so thankfully it's coming back!

[HIPPYVALLEY]

1 minute ago, Torch Tiger said:

it's actually a decent winter.  Not to sound old

Snowfall off by about 6-8" but yes. so far winter being winter.

[HIPPYVALLEY]

First half of February will be snowy for parts of SNE.

[Torch Tiger]

30 minutes ago, HIPPYVALLEY said:

First half of February will be snowy for parts of SNE.

As long as it's not this part, we good

[H2Otown_WX]

Good hit on the Euro for the 2nd but we all know the caveats of day 11 OP outputs. The GFS is pure 1980s with rain south of the pike and some ice along and north of it then back to cold and dry. Anyway, not worth talking about at this range but there's nothing else to look at lol

[Typhoon Tip]

6 hours ago, H2Otown_WX said:

Good hit on the Euro for the 2nd but we all know the caveats of day 11 OP outputs. The GFS is pure 1980s with rain south of the pike and some ice along and north of it then back to cold and dry. Anyway, not worth talking about at this range but there's nothing else to look at lol

Yeah, it's interesting how at first there has been a numerical telecon suggestion for and around GHD. Then, the operational Euro opens the bidding up on the 00z run like that. 

I've always been a fan of that order of events in reality.  The math points to a period of time, then the practicals emerge into it.  

Unfortunately, it's the only member I can see that really is.  The ensemble members are about as vague as possible on anything in there.   Pretty much incoherence.

This is true in the GEFs and GEPs, too.  

What we have is a modest signal in the numerical telecons ( that just means the forecast'  index states ... PNA, EPO ... etc).  When the tele's indicate 'favorable' periods they can be more and less so; a clue to how much is in the magnitude of the deltas.  In this case, this is a small +d(PNA) variant between the 28th-sh and the 3rd of Feb. 

Little bit of a longer read:  It's on the front side .. or climbing PNA that parlays.  But in general principle, any time an index enters a period of change, that's when events unfold. Some times, the event its self is beneath the numerical registry due to scale.  I like to refer to those as sub-index events. 

A disruption in any mass field ( which is what a changing index indicates ) requires restoring of some sort, as/while the disturbance propagates its way through.  This is how all weather occurs.  But, it is happening at all scales. Some events will occur, but the governing perturbation in the field was so small that it was less distinguishable from noise.  Example, an Alberta Clipper zips down the flow and stripes down a light snow event ... it eventually moves off the coast and escapes into the Atlantic.  This type of event may not appear to be associated to index change of any kind, but the restoring was simply too small compared to the size of a index domain.  They are the same "size" as the noise in the field. They are insufficiently large enough to move index.   In fact, some of them can move down to the NJ coast, redevelop more robustly upon reaching the moisture/warmth of the Atlantic.  These can develop fast enough to create winter impacts for the upper middle Atlantic and southern New England regions ... all of which took place with very little leading index changes. 

So, we are in wait still to see if more guidance/cycles therein start physically materializing a system there.  The GFS had more so in prior runs to last night, but in these very recent runs it is kind of a garbage dying ...something. It seems the model's trying to rush the pattern change, which neg interferes.  Probably bullshit... Then we range to the 00z op Euro which pretty much tried to double everyone's seasonal snow fall and then some to date, in a powerful coastal... 

GGEM, ... not considered a tie-break in this unknowable situation, has the SW ejected/opening trough entering the western OV on the 2nd, but has so much confluence it's hard to imagine that getting up here...

[CoastalWx]

Definitely a bit of a gradient look. Going to be hard to lock down stuff this far out, although 2/2 seems to have some signal there. They'll be a few days where it moderates, but certainly not a torch look. PV locked near nrn Hudson Bay which isn't a bad thing. It's just a matter of timing the short waves. 

[Allsnow]

11 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

Definitely a bit of a gradient look. Going to be hard to lock down stuff this far out, although 2/2 seems to have some signal there. They'll be a few days where it moderates, but certainly not a torch look. PV locked near nrn Hudson Bay which isn't a bad thing. It's just a matter of timing the short waves. 

It won’t be dry in this look 

[CoastalWx]

Just now, Allsnow said:

It won’t be dry in this look 

Certainly not as it has been, but I don't think it's a wet look...at least as it looks currently.