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February 2025 Disco/Obs Thread

Torch Tiger

By Torch Tiger,
in New England

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Torch Tiger

Torch Tiger

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With January flying by, winter will soon be quickly winding down as we head through February.  Often a prolific snow month, wintry and white may be in the cards, but LR models/seasonal forecasts have been quite mild if not torchy (which can work for NNE, especially).  Let's discuss the end of winter!

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40/70 Benchmark

40/70 Benchmark

Posted
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I was honestly going to do this pretty soon....as January looks like a lost cause.

Will update this in a couple of weeks, but here are my thoughts from last fall.

 

February 2025 Outlook
February Analogs: 2011, 2008, 2000, 1999,1972
The polar vortex should begin the month very strong, but watch for a potential SSW from about mid month onward.
The pace of moderate storms should increase for the first time all season, just as the warmer weather returns in February, however, a notable difference from many recent months of February is that it should not be prohibitively warm so as to entirely preclude some appreciable snowfall across the majority of the region. The month should finish 1 to 3F above average with near normal to perhaps just below normal snowfall. Northern New England should see above normal snowfall as the cold air source lurks close by in southeastern Canada, which will produce several front-end snowfall for much of southern New England and perhaps even into the northern mid Atlantic at times.
"SWFE"....AKA "Southwest Flow Events-

 
FEB%20H5.png
 
Feb%20Temps.png
 
Feb%20Precip.png

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Typhoon Tip

Typhoon Tip

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god i f'n hope we don't observe a propagating ssw in f'um february.    f that!

if it does, no baseball weather until the end of june - and it won't mean snow in march, either.   ;)    keep hopin' and maybe you'll get what the devil wishes you for

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Torch Tiger

Torch Tiger

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43 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

I was honestly going to do this pretty soon....this month looks like a lost cause.

Will update this in a couple of weeks, but here are my thoughts from last fall.

 

 

February 2025 Outlook
February Analogs: 2011, 2008, 2000, 1999,1972
The polar vortex should begin the month very strong, but watch for a potential SSW from about mid month onward.
The pace of moderate storms should increase for the first time all season, just as the warmer weather returns in February, however, a notable difference from many recent months of February is that it should not be prohibitively warm so as to entirely preclude some appreciable snowfall across the majority of the region. The month should finish 1 to 3F above average with near normal to perhaps just below normal snowfall. Northern New England should see above normal snowfall as the cold air source lurks close by in southeastern Canada, which will produce several front-end snowfall for much of southern New England and perhaps even into the northern mid Atlantic at times.
"SWFE"....AKA "Southwest Flow Events-

 
FEB%20H5.png
 
Feb%20Temps.png
 
Feb%20Precip.png

I agree with slightly below to near normal snowfall for most of NE, but it'll probably be mostly 1-2 storms with a few torches thrown in that weigh everything ++.  Like a general 2-4 maybe higher in spots

...of course saying that, it'll be SWFE flow express days and days setups all month =)

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Torch Tiger

Torch Tiger

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1 hour ago, 78Blizzard said:

Great, January is not even half over yet and we have a new thread to begin our meltdowns.

January is half over, it doesn't appear any major storms are on the horizon, not even a killer cutter.  let's face it, it's time to move onto next month

 

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H2Otown_WX

H2Otown_WX

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2 hours ago, NorEastermass128 said:

Any burgeoning heat domes to start Feb?  I’m ready to turn the page to warmer weather. 

The Euro had one in clown range yesterday off to our west and southwest but, doubt it will come to pass. We'll probably freeze our asses off right through March.

Edit: Actually the Euro has us warming up at the end of the 12z run today so maybe it's on to something? Shows a high close to 50 on the 4th lol

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George001

George001

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50 minutes ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said:

Second half of feb looks very warm. 

I don’t know about that. The MJO plots have it briefly going into phase 4 (relaxation period early Feb?) and then potentially into the cold phases again. My biggest concern is that we will see more of the same, cold and dry. That has been the pattern the first half of winter, often these patterns have a tendency to lock in. Honestly think there is a decent chance we finish the winter with both below normal temps and below normal snowfall, which is very rare especially with the acceleration of climate change. We have seen a tendency towards warm/wet as AGW progresses. It is unfortunate that this cold pattern has not been a snowy one, as cold winters like this are becoming rarer and rarer as our climate warms. It would be nice to capitalize on it and snow when we do get cold weather.

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