mattie g Posted January 16 Share Posted January 16 On 1/16/2025 at 4:12 PM, WxUSAF said: GGEM is a fall line special. 1” to 8-10” cutoff lol. Expand Been that way for quite a few runs. Not a fan. I'm west of the fall line (but not by a ton) and have a few hundred feet of elevation, but verbatim I don't like it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 16 Share Posted January 16 This started to escalate right on time as expected...just as it hit the 72 hour range... these things always tend to juice up some at the end... doesn't mean we are the beneficiaries but since the boundary has been near us all along I've had a pretty good feeling on this one. 13 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattie g Posted January 16 Share Posted January 16 On 1/16/2025 at 4:12 PM, stormtracker said: Ok yall. Cut back on the sexual innuendo stuff. Was fun at first, but we got ladies here and some of them aren't as amused as we are about it. Expand And it's not terribly funny anyway. Yay GFS! 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EastCoast NPZ Posted January 16 Share Posted January 16 On 1/16/2025 at 4:03 PM, Weather Will said: WB 12Z GFS Expand Lol. This POS wave gives me 5" of snow and I'll run naked through the streets. 1 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ravensrule Posted January 16 Share Posted January 16 On 1/16/2025 at 4:14 PM, mattie g said: And it's not terribly funny anyway. Yay GFS! Expand Not everyone loves Stavros. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Interstate Posted January 16 Share Posted January 16 Just saying Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted January 16 Share Posted January 16 On 1/16/2025 at 4:13 PM, mattie g said: Been that way for quite a few runs. Not a fan. Expand Loop the last few runs on TT. Clearly moving southeastward toward the other guidance. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AmericanWxFreak Posted January 16 Share Posted January 16 4 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted January 16 Share Posted January 16 GFS coming into line with Euro AI and Icon wrt wpf (I haven't looked at any model prior to today haha). 6 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted January 16 Share Posted January 16 On 1/16/2025 at 4:15 PM, WxUSAF said: Loop the last few runs on TT. Clearly moving southeastward toward the other guidance. Expand That's what I wanna hear Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pazzo83 Posted January 16 Share Posted January 16 On 1/16/2025 at 2:54 PM, MDScienceTeacher said: I work with AI models almost every day doing coding side projects and believe me when I tell you that they hallucinate a lot. Expand yeah but I don't think this model is built off of transformer architecture like LLMs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pazzo83 Posted January 16 Share Posted January 16 On 1/16/2025 at 2:57 PM, mattie g said: Aren't AI models more prone to hallucination if they don't have good datasets to learn from/refer to? Expand pretty much a given in statistical modeling is that a given model is only as good as the data it was trained on. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 16 Share Posted January 16 On 1/16/2025 at 4:10 PM, H2O said: Expand Idk man, seems waaay to advanced to me. I was thinking more like this but I can see a case for commodore 64 level stuff. 1 7 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted January 16 Share Posted January 16 On 1/16/2025 at 4:16 PM, pazzo83 said: yeah but I don't think this model is built off of transformer architecture like LLMs. Expand Hopefully it's Megatron. Was always a Decepticon guy. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 16 Share Posted January 16 On 1/16/2025 at 4:07 PM, stormtracker said: Anyway, this keeps trending to a more impressive event. Now all the way up the coast. I'm fine with "just" 4 inches tbhThe classic i95 weenie snowstorm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
winter_warlock Posted January 16 Share Posted January 16 It's nice to see the models coming into agreement on a nice moderate snow event but it don't mean anything if the CRAS model doesn't show it lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaydreb Posted January 16 Share Posted January 16 GFS and Euro both agree it’s going to snow and we are only 3 days out. Sign me up. 3 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weather Will Posted January 16 Share Posted January 16 WB 12Z Can. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted January 16 Share Posted January 16 On 1/16/2025 at 4:19 PM, winter_warlock said: It's nice to see the models coming into agreement on a nice moderate snow event but it don't mean anything if the CRAS model doesn't show it lol Expand It's always nice to reverse the norm....get better as we get closer instead of falling apart as we get there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted January 16 Share Posted January 16 On 1/16/2025 at 4:20 PM, Weather Will said: WB 12Z Can. Expand That one better keep trending SE 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted January 16 Share Posted January 16 QPF map for GEM - pivotal doesn't have the zoomed in version available. pssst, snowfall maps are dumb, stop looking at them. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StormyClearweather Posted January 16 Share Posted January 16 On 1/16/2025 at 4:20 PM, Weather Will said: WB 12Z Can. Expand Can you show the 10:1 WB map? Mostly because I bet it looks better. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StormyClearweather Posted January 16 Share Posted January 16 On 1/16/2025 at 4:23 PM, mappy said: QPF map for GEM - pivotal doesn't have the zoomed in version available. pssst, snowfall maps are dumb, stop looking at them. Expand But they're so pretty and pink... 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
North Balti Zen Posted January 16 Share Posted January 16 On 1/16/2025 at 4:16 PM, AmericanWxFreak said: Expand The rare tiny bullseye over my house. Sold. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxdude64 Posted January 16 Share Posted January 16 On 1/16/2025 at 4:16 PM, AmericanWxFreak said: Expand On 1/16/2025 at 4:20 PM, Weather Will said: WB 12Z Can. Expand Certainly some sharp cut-offs Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 16 Share Posted January 16 On 1/16/2025 at 4:20 PM, stormtracker said: It's always nice to reverse the norm....get better as we get closer instead of falling apart as we get there. Expand Seems like a multidecadal cycle there too. Such a hot and cold streak area over longer timescales. We suffered 7 years after 2016 but think about the 7 years prior to that.... maybe, just maybe, we back on a multi year streak. Why? Beats me lol 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
H2O Posted January 16 Share Posted January 16 Sharp cutoff with the maple syrup model. It has moved SE so I will hope that it continues. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DDweatherman Posted January 16 Author Share Posted January 16 On 1/16/2025 at 4:23 PM, mappy said: QPF map for GEM - pivotal doesn't have the zoomed in version available. pssst, snowfall maps are dumb, stop looking at them. Expand That’s a boatload of QPF. Storm has been juicing up nicely given a real low amplifying northward in association with the arctic front. Precip blossoming further south and a more mature system when it gets to our latitude. Like what I’m seeing. I also think given that the precip max would be wider than what the GGEM has here Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Warm Nose Posted January 16 Share Posted January 16 Just confirming since I'm a bit slow: Now we're giving credence to the GFS aka 'worst verifying model' (according to earlier posts) since it shows what people want? 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weather Will Posted January 16 Share Posted January 16 On 1/16/2025 at 4:23 PM, StormyClearweather said: Can you show the 10:1 WB map? Mostly because I bet it looks better. Expand 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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