1/19 - The Weekend Roulette Wheel Thing

[rjvanals]

RGEM looks a bit warm at the onset along I-95

[stormtracker]

lol, RGEM has rain/snow line through DC.  L is basically over the northern neck

[MDScienceTeacher]

7 minutes ago, mitchnick said:

So they have made them human. 

so I use it to help me write code, since that really isnt my background and it is helpful to get started in a lot of cases.  And it is amazing how well it can generate code, if you feed it the correct prompts.  But a lot of time it simply doesn't know the next step and instead of telling the user, it guesses and if you are not careful, you have at best buggy code, at worst malicious code.  AI Models also seem to be overly affirmative.  For instance if you ask it: 

"Is is true that..(some condition)"

and then immediately ask it

"Is it false that (the same condition)"

a lot of times it will answer in the affirmative in both cases .. but the human knows that it something cannot be true and false at the same time.

WRT AI weather models.. I do think that there is a huge opportunity to get better output over time.  I am not 100% sure how the AI weather model works, but doing some research it looks like the model calculates an outcome and then it looks back in to it training set to see whether or not it is realistic based on historical verification data.  Then it adjust for that and provides a "better" outcome and keeps calculating. If you think about it.. the AI model is doing what the trained meteorologist should be doing, just on a micro level.  The mets in here can look at a forecast on the GFS and quickly call bs based on things like climo, historical verifications, bias, etc... as the ai models get  more training date, their output should automatically get better.

[DDweatherman]

Just now, stormtracker said:

Still a stout 86" for DC. 

Davis might end up with 86” in a 30 day period, what a winter for the upslope regions so far

[mattie g]

6 minutes ago, mitchnick said:

Rgem looks on track to prior runs so far.

If you look at the previous three runs on TT, the Low is in *exactly* the same place at 71 on all three.

[stormtracker]

1 minute ago, mattie g said:

If you look at the previous three runs on TT, the Low is in *exactly* the same place at 71 on all three.

It's a pretty sizeable storm up the east coast.  Just wild how it shows rain along and SE of 95.  Was it snow previously?

[stormtracker]

Kuchie got like 8-10 for Mitch and PSU

[mattie g]

Just now, stormtracker said:

It's a pretty sizeable storm up the east coast.  Just wild how it shows rain along and SE of 95.  Was it snow previously?

Nope. It's been steady in showing the rain/snow line running along 95.

[Interstate]

Everyone is going to be posting the 10:1 maps because the Kuchera maps shows less

[stormtracker]

Just now, mattie g said:

Nope. It's been steady in showing the rain/snow line running along 95.

Ah, ok.  Not great, but not dire.  I thought it was some sudden change.

[ravensrule]

10 minutes ago, NorthArlington101 said:

 

@stormtracker decide your own ratios

86”.

[stormtracker]

Here we go...GFS time.  Where does the wheel fall on this time.

[DDweatherman]

Just now, stormtracker said:

Here we go...GFS time.  Where does the wheel fall on this time.

I do think it’ll be a black number again, will it be 29? Might need to wait a few more runs to hit that and the triple 7’s

[adelphi_sky]

1 minute ago, stormtracker said:

Here we go...GFS time.  Where does the wheel fall on this time.

Black 21.

[psuhoffman]

13 minutes ago, stormtracker said:

Ah, ok.  Not great, but not dire.  I thought it was some sudden change.

It's last 2 runs were pretty identical, before that it was even more amplified and further NW, even had me getting mostly rain.  It's trending slightly SE overall but its been and continues to be the most amplified and so the most NW of all guidance.  It's likely overdone...the most extreme solution in either direction rarely "wins" 100%.  It's almost always a compromise solution that wins...the questions is how much of a compromise... 

[DDweatherman]

Just now, psuhoffman said:

It's last 2 runs were pretty identical, before that it was even more amplified and further NW, even had me getting mostly rain.  It's trending slightly SE overall but its been and continues to be the most amplified and so the most NW of all guidance.  It's likely overdone...the most extreme solution in either direction rarely "wins" 100%.  It's almost always a compromise solution that wins...the questions is how much of a compromise... 

interesting to see the normally “under amped” UKMET be mostly in the Canadians camp. It’s been fairly consistent as well. 

[H2O]

5 minutes ago, stormtracker said:

Here we go...GFS time.  Where does the wheel fall on this time.

GFS

[psuhoffman]

Just now, DDweatherman said:

interesting to see the normally “under amped” UKMET be mostly in the Canadians camp. It’s been fairly consistent as well. 

I wouldn't say the UKMET is always under amped...it can sometimes be really amplified...hence the "crazy uncle" nickname it had for a while.  Still I think the final solution is likely somewhere in between the two extreme camps (GGEM/GFS) 

[DDweatherman]

Just now, psuhoffman said:

I wouldn't say the UKMET is always under amped...it can sometimes be really amplified...hence the "crazy uncle" nickname it had for a while.  Still I think the final solution is likely somewhere in between the two extreme camps (GGEM/GFS) 

That middle ground solution is ICON/Euro I’d say as the blend currently. 

[psuhoffman]

Just now, DDweatherman said:

That middle ground solution is ICON/Euro I’d say as the blend currently. 

The thing I like most out of the last cycle or two of runs is that across guidance there seems to be an expanding of the precipitation field.  A larger "win" zone.  

[MillvilleWx]

1 minute ago, psuhoffman said:

I wouldn't say the UKMET is always under amped...it can sometimes be really amplified...hence the "crazy uncle" nickname it had for a while.  Still I think the final solution is likely somewhere in between the two extreme camps (GGEM/GFS) 

Your lips to God's ears....and hopefully my backyard 

[DDweatherman]

Just now, psuhoffman said:

The thing I like most out of the last cycle or two of runs is that across guidance there seems to be an expanding of the precipitation field.  A larger "win" zone.  

I think it’s an earlier development, and maturity of the low along the arctic front that helps. Before, it was a “pop up” hit and run on a lot of the models.

[psuhoffman]

1 minute ago, DDweatherman said:

That middle ground solution is ICON/Euro I’d say as the blend currently. 

I hope so, because without any blocking Id much rather be on the NW side of the qpf shield going into gametime than the SE.  If all guidance actually looked like the RGEM I would be worried we end up a bit too warm even up here.  My hope is that come Saturday the guidance looks like the last run of the euro did or something close to it.  Maybe slightly more amplified would be nice.  

[DDweatherman]

Just now, psuhoffman said:

I hope so, because without any blocking Id much rather be on the NW side of the qpf shield going into gametime than the SE.  If all guidance actually looked like the RGEM I would be worried we end up a bit too warm even up here.  My hope is that come Saturday the guidance looks like the last run of the euro did or something close to it.  Maybe slightly more amplified would be nice.  

Don’t disagree. This is one of those that has a game time north trend on it a higher % of the time than not.

[Interstate]

10 minutes ago, adelphi_sky said:

Black 21.

21 is Red

[RayRoy]

Just now, Interstate said:

21 is Red

Models haven't come to agreement on that yet.

[stormtracker]

Almost to the money panels.  No temp problems so far

[stormtracker]

of course it's stuck on the panel right before the money shot

[stormtracker]

It's comical, lol

[mappy]

ICON qpf very similar to Euro AI