1/19 - The Weekend Roulette Wheel Thing

[yoda]

12z Euro QPF/10:1/Kuchera

 

 

 

 

[SnowenOutThere]

18 minutes ago, MillvilleWx said:

I would say 10-20 miles outside beltways and 20-30 inside. Probably difference in areas >= 250’ ASL. I know I grew up in one of those areas that went from zero to 100 when it came to snowfall away from 95. Lived 8-10 miles west and went up over 280’ in that span. Crazy microclimates 

So would you say out by Reston is closer to the 3-6 zone than the 1-3 south of I-66 one your forecast had? Just had a little bit of trouble figuring out where each zone reached from your forecast, but either way its always awesome to have actual mets provide input in these threads!

[Warm Nose]

1 minute ago, yoda said:

12z Euro QPF/10:1/Kuchera

 

 

 

 

JI, probably:

[CAPE]

4 minutes ago, DDweatherman said:

Actually gets a little more precip over my yard this run. Canadians aside, temps aren't really an issue here other than at the beginning of the event. Missing the area of strong lift on most guidance is..

[Interstate]

I don’t even expect more than an inch here in 21057. I am even under the WSW. These types of events never work out around here waiting for the cold. 

[yoda]

2 minutes ago, Interstate said:

I don’t even expect more than an inch here in 21057. I am even under the WSW. These types of events never work out around here waiting for the cold. 

Cool.  See ya Monday 

[wawarriors4]

It’s funny, Euro has around 5” in my hood, GFS, maybe 3”, 3K around 2.5” and I am fully expecting maybe 1” I honestly don’t know what to think. Might work out be about 10 miles NW of 95/Fredericksburg but my experience says No.

[stormtracker]

Obviously I like the Euro.  But with everything else focused on the N and W burb, I'm gonna just chill with my 2-4 and be fine.   A few days ago, it was supposed to be little to nothing.  So.  Win.

[WxUSAF]

For 1/6, weren’t the GFS and euro in pretty good agreement for the last 48-72 hours? And GGEM/RGEM was way south? Saying just saying…

[DDweatherman]

1 minute ago, stormtracker said:

Obviously I like the Euro.  But with everything else focused on the N and W burb, I'm gonna just chill with my 2-4 and be fine.   A few days ago, it was supposed to be little to nothing.  So.  Win.

In the end I think most people outside the far south/east unfavorable zones will get to enjoy some fun in this one. Even if it’s the closing act on the backend. Decently high ratio fluff with good rates 

[MillvilleWx]

9 minutes ago, SnowenOutThere said:

So would you say out by Reston is closer to the 3-6 zone than the 1-3 south of I-66 one your forecast had? Just had a little bit of trouble figuring out where each zone reached from your forecast, but either way its always awesome to have actual mets provide input in these threads!

Reston is one of those tricky areas right in the dividing line of my typical main zones. I’d say 2-4” with upside potential 5” is probably a decent forecast for that area. There’s a little boom potential with this one for areas that stay all snow through the event, so it’ll be something to monitor. 

[CAPE]

3 minutes ago, Interstate said:

I don’t even expect more than an inch here in 21057. I am even under the WSW. These types of events never work out around here waiting for the cold. 

This is a strong Arctic front. The R/S line will be moving southeastward pretty quickly once the precip gets going. The Canadians with the further NW low track would delay that and be a bigger problem for the coastal plain, but most other guidance is in pretty good agreement the cold push is more aggressive.

[SomeguyfromTakomaPark]

Don’t trust that the euro, or anything, will nail that skinny band placement, but I love seeing it hand wave the the temp issues….illustrates the boom potential even into the metros. 

[nw baltimore wx]

I’m glad that I’m bartending today so I can overhear patrons saying the ground is too warm for snow to accumulate.

[MillvilleWx]

2 minutes ago, WxUSAF said:

For 1/6, weren’t the GFS and euro in pretty good agreement for the last 48-72 hours? And GGEM/RGEM was way south? Saying just saying…

Yup. I look at all the models like everyone here, but unless there’s some significant agreement within the ensembles and eventual hi-res, I will still go with the more trusted deterministic output than outliers. I haven’t wavered from my forecast for that very reason. Can’t be living and dying by every model run. 

[T. August]

Just now, nw baltimore wx said:

I’m glad that I’m bartending today so I can overhear patrons saying the ground is too warm for snow to accumulate.

set em straight… “Well actually…”

[Chris78]

6 minutes ago, WxUSAF said:

For 1/6, weren’t the GFS and euro in pretty good agreement for the last 48-72 hours? And GGEM/RGEM was way south? Saying just saying…

Rgem was way north.

It was giving me 12" 12 hours before the event. Realty was about 4"

Ukie was way south

[Eskimo Joe]

Winter Storm Warnings now hoisted for the areas that were under a watch. Next tier of counties bumped to an advisory. 

[yoda]

3 minutes ago, Eskimo Joe said:

Winter Storm Warnings now hoisted for the areas that were under a watch. Next tier of counties bumped to an advisory. 

Only NW Montgomery and NW Howard were... rest were moved to advisory 

[BristowWx]

21 minutes ago, Solution Man said:

Euro solid

Damn.  I95 jackpot.  That’s fine for us.  If it’s snowing at Quantico, it’s snowing here.

[LeesburgWx]

URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Baltimore MD/Washington DC
1246 PM EST Sat Jan 18 2025

MDZ003>006-502-507-VAZ028-030-031-505-507-WVZ051>053-190200-
/O.CON.KLWX.WS.W.0005.250119T1200Z-250120T0000Z/
Washington-Frederick MD-Carroll-Northern Baltimore-Central and
Eastern Allegany-Northwest Harford-Frederick VA-Warren-Clarke-
Western Loudoun-Northern Virginia Blue Ridge-Morgan-Berkeley-
Jefferson-
1246 PM EST Sat Jan 18 2025

...WINTER STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 7 AM TO 7 PM EST
SUNDAY...

* WHAT...Heavy snow expected. Total snow accumulations between 3 and
  6 inches with locally up to 8 across the higher elevations of
  northern Maryland.

* WHERE...Portions of north central, northern, and western Maryland,
  northern and northwest Virginia, and panhandle West Virginia.

* WHEN...From 7 AM to 7 PM EST Sunday.

* IMPACTS...Travel could be very difficult. The hazardous conditions
  will impact travel.

* ADDITIONAL DETAILS...Snow will overspread the area Sunday morning
  and continue through the afternoon before tapering off during the
  evening. Snowfall rates could approach 1 inch an hour at times.
  Temperatures will fall into the teens Sunday night so any
  lingering moisture on area roadways will freeze.

 

[WEATHER53]

18 minutes ago, yoda said:

12z Euro QPF/10:1/Kuchera

 

 

 

 

When does  the AI come out?

[MillvilleWx]

Just now, LeesburgWx said:

URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Baltimore MD/Washington DC
1246 PM EST Sat Jan 18 2025

MDZ003>006-502-507-VAZ028-030-031-505-507-WVZ051>053-190200-
/O.CON.KLWX.WS.W.0005.250119T1200Z-250120T0000Z/
Washington-Frederick MD-Carroll-Northern Baltimore-Central and
Eastern Allegany-Northwest Harford-Frederick VA-Warren-Clarke-
Western Loudoun-Northern Virginia Blue Ridge-Morgan-Berkeley-
Jefferson-
1246 PM EST Sat Jan 18 2025

...WINTER STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 7 AM TO 7 PM EST
SUNDAY...

* WHAT...Heavy snow expected. Total snow accumulations between 3 and
  6 inches with locally up to 8 across the higher elevations of
  northern Maryland.

* WHERE...Portions of north central, northern, and western Maryland,
  northern and northwest Virginia, and panhandle West Virginia.

* WHEN...From 7 AM to 7 PM EST Sunday.

* IMPACTS...Travel could be very difficult. The hazardous conditions
  will impact travel.

* ADDITIONAL DETAILS...Snow will overspread the area Sunday morning
  and continue through the afternoon before tapering off during the
  evening. Snowfall rates could approach 1 inch an hour at times.
  Temperatures will fall into the teens Sunday night so any
  lingering moisture on area roadways will freeze.

 

This forecast sounds extremely familiar….

[DDweatherman]

1 minute ago, WEATHER53 said:

When does  the AI come out?

2pm 

[winter_warlock]

22 minutes ago, yoda said:

12z Euro QPF/10:1/Kuchera

 

 

 

 

 Weird that that stripe of pink is right over 95 lol 

[WEATHER53]

17 minutes ago, nw baltimore wx said:

I’m glad that I’m bartending today so I can overhear patrons saying the ground is too warm for snow to accumulate.

What time is on the house time??

And where??

[North Balti Zen]

9 minutes ago, nw baltimore wx said:

I’m glad that I’m bartending today so I can overhear patrons saying the ground is too warm for snow to accumulate.

Wait til they hear about EJ‘S mesonet ground temp readings statewide!

[wawarriors4]

 No Winter Weather Product down this way the 1-2” call seems pretty reasonable though.

[StormyClearweather]

EPS bumped QPF for many by about .10. I know we're getting to the range where it doesn't matter as much, but it doesn't hurt either!

[Lowershoresadness]

11 minutes ago, nw baltimore wx said:

I’m glad that I’m bartending today so I can overhear patrons saying the ground is too warm for snow to accumulate.

do you do the walking down the stairs behind the bar trick?