1/19 - The Weekend Roulette Wheel Thing

[CAPE]

41 minutes ago, frd said:

Thanks for your insights.

 

Quick question, what is causing that area of increased snowfall along and to the East of the upper Easternshore, in areas such as Chestertowm , MD. Newark, De, Wilmington, De and my area here in Middletown,  De.    

 

It has been a feature that has showed itself on and off for the last few days. 

 

Need that area of lift to expand a tad further southeast. As is probably starts as drizzle and changes to snizzle and pixie dust lol. Temps get good here fairly early on the GFS but paltry qpf.

[Solution Man]

4 minutes ago, aldie 22 said:

How does one get inside the Bektwat?

He’s speaking Ji

[Maestrobjwa]

8 minutes ago, Fozz said:

Nervous is exactly how I feel. For those of us just slightly NW, we win some and we lose some but sometimes you don’t really know where that line will be.

I think you're in a slightly better spot than I am. I'm sweating it a bit here...but you may have just enough if the temps are indeed close!

[mappy]

54 minutes ago, MillvilleWx said:

My forecast still looks to stay the same. 
 

NW of I-95: 3-6” w/ up to 8” max

Along & SE if I-95: 2-5” w/ up to 6” max 

Area south if I-66 in NoVa and SMD: 1-3” w/ potentially up to 4” if everything breaks right

Best areas for max potential: Parrs Ridge crew from NW MoCo up through Western HoCo and Carroll. This extends eastward into northern Baltimore Co over into northern Harford. This includes places like Parkton-Jarretsville-Norrisville. 
 

I like our border friends in PA for this one too. NW of Philly into the Lehigh Valley will probably see 4-8” w/ max of 10” possible. 
 

Unlikey to change my thoughts as things get locked in. Hoping for a surprise overperformer. It’s gonna snow 

Thanks for your thoughts, friend! Love when Parkton gets mentioned by name 

[87storms]

Frederick seems to do pretty decent with these "rare" southern storms due to the combo of upslope and valley CAD.  NS dominant storms are a little more sus as I get that downslope component.  I think NPZ lives in an area where those effects are amplified.  What makes that Clarksburg to Damascus area in Moco (and along that line) underrated for snow is they're usually not too far north or south and have topography working for them.  I think they actually average a little more snow than downtown Frederick.

[jmk]

Trying not to get too hopeful here, but Western Prince William seems primed again. Still have tons of snow everywhere here. Ready for whatever comes. 

[Fozz]

4 minutes ago, mappy said:

Thanks for your thoughts, friend! Love when Parkton gets mentioned by name 

You’re in a fantastic spot, you enjoy this one!

[mappy]

Just now, Fozz said:

You’re in a fantastic spot, you enjoy this one!

Thanks! I think you’ll do well too

[Warm Nose]

I'll hope the N&W is correct. But based on experience we'll probably be on the edge too despite the models. 3" is my O/U for this event.

[Fozz]

22 minutes ago, T. August said:

I think you are good for 4-6”

14 minutes ago, Maestrobjwa said:

I think you're in a slightly better spot than I am. I'm sweating it a bit here...but you may have just enough if the temps are indeed close!

I hope so. A lot of the guidance looks pretty good here, but some of it dryslots my area or even has temp/precip type issues where I’m right at the gradient.

It’s a very common thing here, and it could go either way. @ravensrule and @nw baltimore wx know exactly what I’m talking about, and just have to see where the chips fall.

Since I haven’t seen a warning level storm IMBY in a long time (I was out on 1/6 which probably had around ~5”), I’m naturally a bit cautious.

My bar is 3”. That is enough to set us up for a very fun week of deep winter without getting too greedy.

[clskinsfan]

UK runs the mix line right along 95 early. Has a really nice thump west of that and swings through with snow to the east later in the day. 

[Eskimo Joe]

4 minutes ago, clskinsfan said:

UK runs the mix line right along 95 early. Has a really nice thump west of that and swings through with snow to the east later in the day. 

Classic 

[psuhoffman]

1 hour ago, Weather Will said:

WB 12Z RGEM little drier and tick SE compared to 6Z.

I think the rgem has now adjusted qpf to reality it’s just too warm in the mid levels. But if you take that qpf and apply 10-1 snowfall from 95 NW that’s probably close to reality now imo. 

[TowsonWeather]

8 minutes ago, clskinsfan said:

UK runs the mix line right along 95 early. Has a really nice thump west of that and swings through with snow to the east later in the day. 

NGL, if we mix in Towson after being in the icebox for weeks, I'm gonna be a bitter bitch. I know that's the way of it I've lived here most of my life. But that doesn't make it any less annoying, hehe.

[T. August]

Anybody have the uk maps? Wxbell doesn’t get them until 3 days after.

[StormyClearweather]

1 minute ago, T. August said:

Anybody have the uk maps? Wxbell doesn’t get them until 3 days after.

[MillvilleWx]

1 hour ago, WEATHER53 said:

When we talk about I95 how does that break down mileage wise ?

is “Along” say within 10 miles  and then north and west greater than 10!or 20 or 30?

I would say 10-20 miles outside beltways and 20-30 inside. Probably difference in areas >= 250’ ASL. I know I grew up in one of those areas that went from zero to 100 when it came to snowfall away from 95. Lived 8-10 miles west and went up over 280’ in that span. Crazy microclimates 

[WEATHER53]

33 minutes ago, aldie 22 said:

How does one get inside the Bektwat?

That was a bad one .  Beltway 

 

[Maestrobjwa]

7 minutes ago, TowsonWeather said:

NGL, if we mix in Towson after being in the icebox for weeks, I'm gonna be a bitter bitch. I know that's the way of it I've lived here most of my life. But that doesn't make it any less annoying, hehe.

Yeah and being literally 5 mins south of Towson, I hear ya. It's particularly annoying since we kinda got fringed last time for being, wait for it...too far north  BUT...it is still snow and it'll be nice to look at 

[T. August]

Just now, StormyClearweather said:

Thanks but no thanks

[clskinsfan]

[DDweatherman]

Just now, MillvilleWx said:

I would say 10-20 miles outside beltways and 20-30 inside. Probably difference in areas >= 250’ ASL. I know I grew up in one of those areas that went from zero to 100 when it came to snowfall away from 95. Lived 8-10 miles west and went up over 280’ in that span. Crazy microclimates 

They’re real, especially in 2025 vs the days of old. That late November snow up here there was a coating a few blocks lower and 2+” on my street. 

[Maestrobjwa]

Just now, T. August said:

Thanks but no thanks

Don't forget about the last several years...I know it may not be what ya want, but it's still more snow in a month than we've had recently!

[Fozz]

1 minute ago, T. August said:

Thanks but no thanks

It meets my bar but definitely looks like more of a high end advisory event.

[hstorm]

Ukie thermals seem marginally better than at 6z, even though snow maps are similar or slightly worse. Both are likely just noise. But good to see some positive movement on thermals. 

[DDweatherman]

Euro is a pretty damn nice run for all.

[yoda]

EURO decides to tempt us in DC metro... i95 special 

[Solution Man]

Euro solid

[DDweatherman]

[rjvanals]

All I-95 snow weenies approve of the Euro