87storms Posted January 18 Share Posted January 18 Frederick seems to do pretty decent with these "rare" southern storms due to the combo of upslope and valley CAD. NS dominant storms are a little more sus as I get that downslope component. I think NPZ lives in an area where those effects are amplified. What makes that Clarksburg to Damascus area in Moco (and along that line) underrated for snow is they're usually not too far north or south and have topography working for them. I think they actually average a little more snow than downtown Frederick. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jmk Posted January 18 Share Posted January 18 Trying not to get too hopeful here, but Western Prince William seems primed again. Still have tons of snow everywhere here. Ready for whatever comes. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Fozz Posted January 18 Share Posted January 18 4 minutes ago, mappy said: Thanks for your thoughts, friend! Love when Parkton gets mentioned by name You’re in a fantastic spot, you enjoy this one! 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted January 18 Share Posted January 18 Just now, Fozz said: You’re in a fantastic spot, you enjoy this one! Thanks! I think you’ll do well too 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Warm Nose Posted January 18 Share Posted January 18 I'll hope the N&W is correct. But based on experience we'll probably be on the edge too despite the models. 3" is my O/U for this event. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Fozz Posted January 18 Share Posted January 18 22 minutes ago, T. August said: I think you are good for 4-6” 14 minutes ago, Maestrobjwa said: I think you're in a slightly better spot than I am. I'm sweating it a bit here...but you may have just enough if the temps are indeed close! I hope so. A lot of the guidance looks pretty good here, but some of it dryslots my area or even has temp/precip type issues where I’m right at the gradient. It’s a very common thing here, and it could go either way. @ravensrule and @nw baltimore wx know exactly what I’m talking about, and just have to see where the chips fall. Since I haven’t seen a warning level storm IMBY in a long time (I was out on 1/6 which probably had around ~5”), I’m naturally a bit cautious. My bar is 3”. That is enough to set us up for a very fun week of deep winter without getting too greedy. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clskinsfan Posted January 18 Share Posted January 18 UK runs the mix line right along 95 early. Has a really nice thump west of that and swings through with snow to the east later in the day. 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted January 18 Share Posted January 18 4 minutes ago, clskinsfan said: UK runs the mix line right along 95 early. Has a really nice thump west of that and swings through with snow to the east later in the day. Classic 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 18 Share Posted January 18 1 hour ago, Weather Will said: WB 12Z RGEM little drier and tick SE compared to 6Z. I think the rgem has now adjusted qpf to reality it’s just too warm in the mid levels. But if you take that qpf and apply 10-1 snowfall from 95 NW that’s probably close to reality now imo. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TowsonWeather Posted January 18 Share Posted January 18 8 minutes ago, clskinsfan said: UK runs the mix line right along 95 early. Has a really nice thump west of that and swings through with snow to the east later in the day. NGL, if we mix in Towson after being in the icebox for weeks, I'm gonna be a bitter bitch. I know that's the way of it I've lived here most of my life. But that doesn't make it any less annoying, hehe. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
T. August Posted January 18 Share Posted January 18 Anybody have the uk maps? Wxbell doesn’t get them until 3 days after. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StormyClearweather Posted January 18 Share Posted January 18 1 minute ago, T. August said: Anybody have the uk maps? Wxbell doesn’t get them until 3 days after. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MillvilleWx Posted January 18 Share Posted January 18 1 hour ago, WEATHER53 said: When we talk about I95 how does that break down mileage wise ? is “Along” say within 10 miles and then north and west greater than 10!or 20 or 30? I would say 10-20 miles outside beltways and 20-30 inside. Probably difference in areas >= 250’ ASL. I know I grew up in one of those areas that went from zero to 100 when it came to snowfall away from 95. Lived 8-10 miles west and went up over 280’ in that span. Crazy microclimates 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WEATHER53 Posted January 18 Share Posted January 18 33 minutes ago, aldie 22 said: How does one get inside the Bektwat? That was a bad one . Beltway 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Maestrobjwa Posted January 18 Share Posted January 18 7 minutes ago, TowsonWeather said: NGL, if we mix in Towson after being in the icebox for weeks, I'm gonna be a bitter bitch. I know that's the way of it I've lived here most of my life. But that doesn't make it any less annoying, hehe. Yeah and being literally 5 mins south of Towson, I hear ya. It's particularly annoying since we kinda got fringed last time for being, wait for it...too far north BUT...it is still snow and it'll be nice to look at Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
T. August Posted January 18 Share Posted January 18 Just now, StormyClearweather said: Thanks but no thanks Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clskinsfan Posted January 18 Share Posted January 18 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DDweatherman Posted January 18 Author Share Posted January 18 Just now, MillvilleWx said: I would say 10-20 miles outside beltways and 20-30 inside. Probably difference in areas >= 250’ ASL. I know I grew up in one of those areas that went from zero to 100 when it came to snowfall away from 95. Lived 8-10 miles west and went up over 280’ in that span. Crazy microclimates They’re real, especially in 2025 vs the days of old. That late November snow up here there was a coating a few blocks lower and 2+” on my street. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Maestrobjwa Posted January 18 Share Posted January 18 Just now, T. August said: Thanks but no thanks Don't forget about the last several years...I know it may not be what ya want, but it's still more snow in a month than we've had recently! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Fozz Posted January 18 Share Posted January 18 1 minute ago, T. August said: Thanks but no thanks It meets my bar but definitely looks like more of a high end advisory event. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hstorm Posted January 18 Share Posted January 18 Ukie thermals seem marginally better than at 6z, even though snow maps are similar or slightly worse. Both are likely just noise. But good to see some positive movement on thermals. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DDweatherman Posted January 18 Author Share Posted January 18 Euro is a pretty damn nice run for all. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted January 18 Share Posted January 18 EURO decides to tempt us in DC metro... i95 special Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Solution Man Posted January 18 Share Posted January 18 Euro solid Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DDweatherman Posted January 18 Author Share Posted January 18 10 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rjvanals Posted January 18 Share Posted January 18 All I-95 snow weenies approve of the Euro 6 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted January 18 Share Posted January 18 12z Euro QPF/10:1/Kuchera 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowenOutThere Posted January 18 Share Posted January 18 18 minutes ago, MillvilleWx said: I would say 10-20 miles outside beltways and 20-30 inside. Probably difference in areas >= 250’ ASL. I know I grew up in one of those areas that went from zero to 100 when it came to snowfall away from 95. Lived 8-10 miles west and went up over 280’ in that span. Crazy microclimates So would you say out by Reston is closer to the 3-6 zone than the 1-3 south of I-66 one your forecast had? Just had a little bit of trouble figuring out where each zone reached from your forecast, but either way its always awesome to have actual mets provide input in these threads! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Warm Nose Posted January 18 Share Posted January 18 1 minute ago, yoda said: 12z Euro QPF/10:1/Kuchera JI, probably: 2 8 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted January 18 Share Posted January 18 4 minutes ago, DDweatherman said: Actually gets a little more precip over my yard this run. Canadians aside, temps aren't really an issue here other than at the beginning of the event. Missing the area of strong lift on most guidance is.. 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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