TSSN+ Posted 9 hours ago Share Posted 9 hours ago 1 minute ago, psuhoffman said: 3k just spit out one of those euro almost non event solutions from yesterday. 12k still having convective issues. On to the bigger guidance. Of course can’t just have consistency 24hrs out 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scarlet Pimpernel Posted 9 hours ago Share Posted 9 hours ago The NAM 3-km, as I understand it, is still very good guidance for thermal profiles. As for overall precip, not sure. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weather Will Posted 9 hours ago Share Posted 9 hours ago WB 3K NAM.... hopefully Ji is asleep. But it stinks for us. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StormyClearweather Posted 9 hours ago Share Posted 9 hours ago 5 minutes ago, psuhoffman said: It’s pretty much a 1-3” event for places currently predicted to get 4-6”. But everyone can have their own definition of “nice” My bad - I was looking at the FV3 as opposed to the NAM, so that explains it. Hopefully it knows its stuff. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted 9 hours ago Share Posted 9 hours ago High Risk said before last Monday's storm that the Hrrr doesn't include new soundings for each run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DDweatherman Posted 9 hours ago Author Share Posted 9 hours ago Just now, mitchnick said: High Risk said before last Monday's storm that the Hrrr doesn't include new soundings for each run. Correct. FV3 is the polar opposite of the 3k, crushes our neck Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
high risk Posted 9 hours ago Share Posted 9 hours ago 2 minutes ago, mitchnick said: High Risk said before last Monday's storm that the Hrrr doesn't include new soundings for each run. Clarification needed: the 12z soundings do not make it into the 12z HRRR. They’ll be used in the 13z cycle (which of course only runs 18 hours out…..) 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
baltosquid Posted 9 hours ago Share Posted 9 hours ago FV3 is for 95 with the rain snow line. Really want to see some of these mesos stop riding the nw envelope of guidance Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dailylurker Posted 9 hours ago Share Posted 9 hours ago 7 minutes ago, baltosquid said: FV3 is for 95 with the rain snow line. Really want to see some of these mesos stop riding the nw envelope of guidance The 95 region will go like this.. It will start as rain while nw of the area will be snow and 30-31 degrees. Lowlands will be 35-36 with light rain. As the low gets going and the precip is rocketing ne a band will form on the backside. It will be pretty heavy. Temps will drop to 31-32 and rain will turn to heavy snow. Big wet flakes. That will last from 45 minutes to about 2 hours. It will drop 1-2" maybe a 3" lollie in my yard lol. It will rapidly end from sw to ne and the wind will come in behind it. I've watched weather in this area for 46 years. Book it 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Solution Man Posted 9 hours ago Share Posted 9 hours ago 3 minutes ago, dailylurker said: The 95 region will go like this.. It will start as rain while nw of the area will be snow and 30-31 degrees. Lowlands will be 35-36 with light rain. As the low gets going and the precip is rocketing ne a band will form on the backside. It will be pretty heavy. Temps will drop to 31-32 and rain will turn to heavy snow. Big wet flakes. That will last from 45 minutes to about 2 hours. It will drop 1-2" maybe a 3" lollie in my yard lol. It will rapidly end from sw to ne and the wind will come in behind it. I've watched weather in this area for 46 years. Book it Sounds about like this area, but I hope you’re wrong Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted 9 hours ago Share Posted 9 hours ago The NAMs almost never impact my opinion. I’d still be more worried about over amplification then under 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dailylurker Posted 9 hours ago Share Posted 9 hours ago Just now, Solution Man said: Sounds about like this area, but I hope you’re wrong So do I but this is probably a very accurate forecast from what I'm seeing for the lowlands. I'm a lowlands expert lol 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Solution Man Posted 9 hours ago Share Posted 9 hours ago Icon roulette, place your bets Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Terpeast Posted 9 hours ago Share Posted 9 hours ago Does anyone know if the 3k nam has a history of moving frontal boundaries too quickly, or just right? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
deer Posted 9 hours ago Share Posted 9 hours ago 11 minutes ago, dailylurker said: The 95 region will go like this.. It will start as rain while nw of the area will be snow and 30-31 degrees. Lowlands will be 35-36 with light rain. As the low gets going and the precip is rocketing ne a band will form on the backside. It will be pretty heavy. Temps will drop to 31-32 and rain will turn to heavy snow. Big wet flakes. That will last from 45 minutes to about 2 hours. It will drop 1-2" maybe a 3" lollie in my yard lol. It will rapidly end from sw to ne and the wind will come in behind it. I've watched weather in this area for 46 years. Book it Probably correct Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dailylurker Posted 9 hours ago Share Posted 9 hours ago Just now, deer said: Probably correct I'm not trying to deb at all. I'd put a paycheck on this is how it plays out. Not terrible imo. A couple hours of heavy snow would be a win for AA County. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
300 square feet Posted 9 hours ago Share Posted 9 hours ago Just now, dailylurker said: I'm not trying to deb at all. I'd put a paycheck on this is how it plays out. Not terrible imo. A couple hours of heavy snow would be a win for AA County. 100% you’re right about this. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DarkSharkWX Posted 9 hours ago Share Posted 9 hours ago rgem shifted SE 4 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StormyClearweather Posted 9 hours ago Share Posted 9 hours ago RDPS looks a touch colder and east-er with the R/S line to my eye. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted 9 hours ago Share Posted 9 hours ago 20 minutes ago, dailylurker said: The 95 region will go like this.. It will start as rain while nw of the area will be snow and 30-31 degrees. Lowlands will be 35-36 with light rain. As the low gets going and the precip is rocketing ne a band will form on the backside. It will be pretty heavy. Temps will drop to 31-32 and rain will turn to heavy snow. Big wet flakes. That will last from 45 minutes to about 2 hours. It will drop 1-2" maybe a 3" lollie in my yard lol. It will rapidly end from sw to ne and the wind will come in behind it. I've watched weather in this area for 46 years. Book it This is hilarious...because it's true. Most of us know this is how it goes in marginal or close events. 4 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TSSN+ Posted 9 hours ago Share Posted 9 hours ago Icon 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted 9 hours ago Share Posted 9 hours ago Just now, StormyClearweather said: RDPS looks a touch colder and east-er with the R/S line to my eye. We need it to keep going that way. But it's the only one that's amp'd up so far (still) 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Terpeast Posted 9 hours ago Share Posted 9 hours ago Just now, DarkSharkWX said: rgem shifted SE Great sign! Lets see if it shifts one more time to get DC metro in the game for high end advisory! 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Interstate Posted 9 hours ago Share Posted 9 hours ago 1 minute ago, DarkSharkWX said: rgem shifted SE I was just going to post this. Better for the northern counties. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Fozz Posted 8 hours ago Share Posted 8 hours ago 29 minutes ago, baltosquid said: FV3 is for 95 with the rain snow line. Really want to see some of these mesos stop riding the nw envelope of guidance It’s got a nasty dryslot over Baltimore and those of us nearby. I hope this isn’t right. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aldie 22 Posted 8 hours ago Share Posted 8 hours ago 39 minutes ago, Weather Will said: WB 3K NAM.... hopefully Ji is asleep. But it stinks for us. Still jackpots Dulles I guess Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
T. August Posted 8 hours ago Share Posted 8 hours ago Icon is a disaster lol 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LeesburgWx Posted 8 hours ago Share Posted 8 hours ago This is and always has been a Loudoun special. But anymore movement NW and even Loudoun is in trouble 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hstorm Posted 8 hours ago Share Posted 8 hours ago 4 minutes ago, T. August said: Icon is a disaster lol It looks virtually identical to 6z. Whether it’s right or not is a different question. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattie g Posted 8 hours ago Share Posted 8 hours ago 3 minutes ago, LeesburgWx said: This is and always has been a Loudoun special. But anymore movement NW and even Loudoun is in trouble Has it? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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