1/19 - The Weekend Roulette Wheel Thing

[WVclimo]

I don’t think I’ve seen these counties split up like this before.

[Scraff]

18 minutes ago, Herb@MAWS said:

2-4” would be fine by me, with 3 cars to shovel out. Much easier than removing 6”. Oh well, that’s my rationale for being happy with whatever I get.

25.2° imby at 6am. Currently it is the morning low. 

Good morning! Look forward to hearing all about it from the HoCo crew tomorrow. I’m guessing solid 4-5. Either way, whatever falls, I’ll be living vicariously through you all this go around. 

[LeesburgWx]

1 hour ago, yoda said:

About 50 miles NW lol... its not like it's in the i81 corridor 

 

That’s a Loudoun special right there 

[winter_warlock]

52 minutes ago, WVclimo said:

I don’t think I’ve seen these counties split up like this before.

Weird lol

[yoda]

 

[aldie 22]

1 hour ago, WVclimo said:

I don’t think I’ve seen these counties split up like this before.

Loudoun had been split for years now. Ji often gets confused if he's in eastern or western Loudoun. I'm starting a go fund me to buy him a map

[SomeguyfromTakomaPark]

1 minute ago, yoda said:

 

lol they were talking “full euro cave to rgem” in the New England forum and I was thinking we got rained on.  I guess they were referencing further in the storms development.  That looks fantastic for us, thanks for posting. 

[aldie 22]

Looks like the morning runs have adjusted the orientation of the snow more sw to ne vs west to east 

[Interstate]

8 minutes ago, aldie 22 said:

Looks like the morning runs have adjusted the orientation of the snow more sw to ne vs west to east 

Yep as it should be. That is the way the cold air will be coming in. 
 

it is all about how fast the cold air gets here. 

[mitchnick]

10 minutes ago, aldie 22 said:

Loudoun had been split for years now. Ji often gets confused if he's in eastern or western Loudoun. I'm starting a go fund me to buy him a map

You've always had his best interests at heart. 

[psuhoffman]

3 hours ago, psuhoffman said:

Getting through 0z with no NW trend was a really big deal. Our chances of a W went up significantly 

I had to open my Big fat mouth 

[WxUSAF]

3k NAM strongly suggests Jebwalks should be scheduled for 21-22z in the metro area. Rippin fatties aleet.

[aldie 22]

1 minute ago, psuhoffman said:

I had to open my Big fat mouth 

Oh god how long is the post going to be?

[stormy]

9 minutes ago, Interstate said:

Yep as it should be. That is the way the cold air will be coming in. 
 

it is all about how fast the cold air gets here. 

Exactly ,  and track of low pressure from central Va. to northern N.C.

[psuhoffman]

26 minutes ago, SomeguyfromTakomaPark said:

lol they were talking “full euro cave to rgem” in the New England forum and I was thinking we got rained on.  I guess they were referencing further in the storms development.  That looks fantastic for us, thanks for posting. 

 

25 minutes ago, aldie 22 said:

Looks like the morning runs have adjusted the orientation of the snow more sw to ne vs west to east 

They are imby up there but so are we. The euro did cave in the amplification and thus more SW to NE v WSW to ENE orientation and  eventual heavier qpf aspects. So for them they are now virtually identical which is all they care about. 
 

We are furthest west of the metros which saves us some and they still differ in that the euro starts out with a further SE thermal boundary.  The RGEM is still 50 miles NW of all other guidance on that and why it screws us hard. 
 

0z was big bc there was a slight SE trend overall across guidance. But 6z definitely resumed the NW move. Rgem has been a rock and everything else has been bleeding towards it. But honestly even without the rgem Id still have been more nervous about a NW trend just based on history and how many times this happens the last 48 hours. 
 

I still find it hard to imagine it goes too much further and the rgem wins 100% here. It would be one of the greatest single model victories in the face of all others ever if it happens.  Hopefully 6z was the final adjustment but my gut says one more similar move is possible.  

[LeesburgWx]

6” would beat the last storm for me where I only got like 5.5” - but I still have the snow cover. Going for 5x snow on snow tomorrow

[snowfan]

[CAPE]

12 minutes ago, WxUSAF said:

3k NAM strongly suggests Jebwalks should be scheduled for 21-22z in the metro area. Rippin fatties aleet.

Hugging the 3k NAM. It's the only model that gets heavier precip here and its all snow. Given the rest of the current guidance, I'm not expecting more than an inch or 2 with this one.

[SomeguyfromTakomaPark]

1 minute ago, psuhoffman said:

 

They are imby up there but so are we. The euro did cave in the amplification and thus more SW to NE v WSW to ENE orientation and  eventual heavier qpf aspects. So for them they are now virtually identical which is all they care about. 
 

We are furthest west of the metros which saves us some and they still differ in that the euro starts out with a further SE thermal boundary.  The RGEM is still 50 miles NW of all other guidance on that and why it screws us hard. 
 

0z was big bc there was a slight SE trend overall across guidance. But 6z definitely resumed the NW move. Rgem has been a rock and everything else has been bleeding towards it. But honestly even without the rgem is still have been more nervous about a NW trend just based on history and how many times this happens the last 48 hours. 
 

I still find it hard to imagine it goes too much further and the rgem wins 100% here. It would be one of the greatest single model victories in the face of all others ever if it happens.  Hopefully 6z was the final adjustment but my gut says one more similar move is possible.  

Yeah I dunno I’m not too worried.  It might trend west but not far enough we get shut out I don’t think.  Just want some accumulating. 

[Herb@MAWS]

34 minutes ago, winter_warlock said:

Weird lol

 

1 hour ago, WVclimo said:

I don’t think I’ve seen these counties split up like this before.

I know HoCo is divided into a NW zone for higher elevations and then “the rest of the county”/SE zone …. and I suspect NWS does the same for where u see the other split county advisories. 

[primetime]

3 hours ago, psuhoffman said:

Euro AI 

Loving the little bullseye over Northern Carroll. 

[jayyy]

Loving the little bullseye over Northern Carroll. 

Man, that model has truly been rock solid for DAYS. .45-.55 area wide with the maxima from my hood to Mt PSU

[TSSN+]

Behind this storm though. Holy hell. 
 

[Eskimo Joe]

2 minutes ago, TSSN+ said:

Behind this storm though. Holy hell. 
 

Yes. Good. Real winter coming.

[mitchnick]

2 minutes ago, TSSN+ said:

Behind this storm though. Holy hell. 
 

That 4-day period, if true, would beat any consecutive 4-day period in 93/94.

[Interstate]

3 minutes ago, TSSN+ said:

Behind this storm though. Holy hell. 
 

Is this just for reporting stations or can you do it for any location?

[TSSN+]

Just now, Interstate said:

Is this just for reporting stations or can you do it for any location?

Mostly major cities or airports. 

[psuhoffman]

13 minutes ago, SomeguyfromTakomaPark said:

Yeah I dunno I’m not too worried.  It might trend west but not far enough we get shut out I don’t think.  Just want some accumulating. 

There are still major differences between the euro and rgem.  Mainly the thermal boundary.  It shifted maybe 25 miles the last 24 hours. It’s still way off from the rgem and unlikely to correct that much in the final 24 hours. 
 

difference 12z

 

19z

 I doubt 95 gets totally shut out. It would take an epic fail by the euro/gfs. The last few hours of heavy snow look at the thermal boundary on the euro below.

There are still 2 hours of heavy snow to go here in DC and 3 hours in Baltimore.  Hard to imagine the euro is that off with thermals so I think some snow during this period is unlikely to fail.  

Gun to my head is say right along 95 gets at least 2-3” from that band as the coastal gets going and thermals crash, with totals increasing fast once you get NW of the fall line. But 95 could still do better if the thermals crash quick which happens sometimes.
 

You all know the drill with these type thermal setups and our climo. It’s been a while but anyone older than 15 has lived through plenty of these. 

[TSSN+]

3 minutes ago, mitchnick said:

That 4-day period, if true, would beat any consecutive 4-day period in 93/94.

Been a while since seen the rivers freeze up. 

[DDweatherman]

@stormtracker thoughts on me spinning up the next storm thread before the 12z models run or do we run with this until obs thread?