1/19 - The Weekend Roulette Wheel Thing

[HighStakes]

Bottom line is almost every model gives the area some snow Sunday. Details to be fine tuned as always. Models are not backing off or showing any moderationon the Arctic cold as we get closer and in fact it keeps getting stronger and colder. Then a chance at a significant event towards the end of next week. This could be and I emphasize could be a top 5 winter week of all time!

[mitchnick]

2 minutes ago, CAPE said:

Well it flipped(or flopped) in conjunction with the GFS. What do we make of this?

It can be just as bad as the Gfs.

 

[mitchnick]

6 hours ago, Ji said:

Horrible run. Nothing like ukmet or icon or Canadian

 

6 hours ago, mitchnick said:

AI has been consistent with a hit thru 18z run.

The winner is the EuroAI while the operational is the dog.

[Allsnow]

Just now, mitchnick said:

 

The winner is the EuroAI while the operational is the dog.

When does 06z AI come out? 

[mitchnick]

1 minute ago, Allsnow said:

When does 06z AI come out? 

Cycles are 8AM for 6z; 2PM for 12z; 8PM for 18z; 2AM for 0z.

[Heisy]

It can be just as bad as the Gfs.
 

Euro Ai is my go to model under 5 days and idc what anyone says. This thing is a beast. I know this event hasn’t happened yet, but all winter this thing locks in at this range. It’ll have minor ticks each run, but I haven’t seen it pull a full on big swing like the GFS or euro just did all winter.


.

[mitchnick]

6z Rgem held serve

https://www.pivotalweather.com/model.php?rh=2025011606&fh=84&dpdt=&mc=&r=us_ma&p=prateptype-imp&m=rdps

[psuhoffman]

46 minutes ago, CAPE said:

I get what you are saying, but there are always multiple variables at play that factor in to the ultimate outcome. In this case it is more where the thermal boundary is located vs a more amped wave. The flow is relatively flat and west to east, and the vorticity is stretched out accordingly, underneath an upper level jet streak. Compare the vorticity on the 6z GFS and 6z Euro runs. No real dig in either case, and a subtle difference in the boundary location. For all practical purposes their outcomes are the same. In this situation the heavier snow(such that it will be) could be biased a bit NW or SE.

 

I’m kinda tossing the GFS boundary location. Because all other guidance is all pretty close on that and the difference between the further NW Ggem and uk and southeast euro was simply the amplitude of the SW.  if that’s true (and it might not be I’m wrong plenty) then we have a range of permutations that is between a 4-8” snow with a NW of 95 track to a 1-3” SE of 95 track. 
 

If I’m wrong about the location of the boundary then it opens the door to a bigger snow SE, but I tossed that solution because it’s only been on the gfs and that models been a mess lately.  Across all other guidance we’ve had a more consistent range of outcomes. 

[anotherman]

4 minutes ago, mitchnick said:

6z Rgem held serve

https://www.pivotalweather.com/model.php?rh=2025011606&fh=84&dpdt=&mc=&r=us_ma&p=prateptype-imp&m=rdps

Dang

[WxUSAF]

19 minutes ago, mitchnick said:

Cycles are 8AM for 6z; 2PM for 12z; 8PM for 18z; 2AM for 0z.

This thing runs on a cell phone in like 30 seconds so weird they can’t have it out first in the suite?

[CAPE]

11 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

I’m kinda tossing the GFS boundary location. Because all other guidance is all pretty close on that and the difference between the further NW Ggem and uk and southeast euro was simply the amplitude of the SW.  if that’s true (and it might not be I’m wrong plenty) then we have a range of permutations that is between a 4-8” snow with a NW of 95 track to a 1-3” SE of 95 track. 
 

If I’m wrong about the location of the boundary then it opens the door to a bigger snow SE, but I tossed that solution because it’s only been on the gfs and that models been a mess lately.  Across all other guidance we’ve had a more consistent range of outcomes. 

Kinda splitting hairs here. The 6z Euro has 4-6 along I-95, and a little less NW and SE.

[Solution Man]

1 minute ago, ravensrule said:

Fixed. 

The bet is black, spin that wheel 

[SomeguyfromTakomaPark]

Euro AI still steady as ever.  Now up to 19 runs without changing. 

[ravensrule]

Just now, SomeguyfromTakomaPark said:

Euro AI still steady as ever.  Now up to 19 runs without changing. 

Does it have accumulation maps like the regular Euro?. 

[DDweatherman]

1 minute ago, ravensrule said:

Does it have accumulation maps like the regular Euro?. 

A little while after the run TT has total precip maps for 24h accums so you can infer a bit

[mitchnick]

5 minutes ago, ravensrule said:

Does it have accumulation maps like the regular Euro?. 

All I can say is this looks like the wettest run so far based on the crummy  maps of the Euro site.

[ravensrule]

3 minutes ago, DDweatherman said:

A little while after the run TT has total precip maps for 24h accums so you can infer a bit

In the cold weather it’s a lot of work trying to figure out the ratios as well. I hate the Europeans. 

[ravensrule]

1 minute ago, mitchnick said:

All I can say us this looks like the wettest run so far based on the crummy  maps of the Euro site.

Please talk even dirtier to me. Thank you. 

[SomeguyfromTakomaPark]

2 minutes ago, mitchnick said:

All I can say is this looks like the wettest run so far based on the crummy  maps of the Euro site.

Can you link that site again.  I will bookmark this time.

[ravensrule]

13 minutes ago, Solution Man said:

The bet is black, spin that wheel 

Funny how the mods are still testy up in here. 

[clskinsfan]

1 hour ago, psuhoffman said:

Agree except I’d rather this not hit during the Eagles game. They’re the much better team. I don’t want anything that could cause a fluke or give a team we would normally dog walk a chance. 

Well I am a Skins fan so I hope Philly gets buried.  

[mappy]

17 minutes ago, clskinsfan said:

Well I am a Skins fan so I hope Philly gets buried.  

Amen!

[mappy]

Euro AI qpf. Includes whatever falls today

[psuhoffman]

41 minutes ago, CAPE said:

Kinda splitting hairs here. The 6z Euro has 4-6 along I-95, and a little less NW and SE.

It had a run that was about 3-6” along or near 95 yesterday too. I think that’s likely close to their max solution.  If the wave ends up more amplified and the track shifts NW I think it has 8” potential for places further NW like MRG, HGR, MDT. Of course that’s dependent on them getting into the max band. I do think in general the further NW the snow ends up the more likely it is to be heavier. 

[Warm Nose]

Current state of models:

[mitchnick]

29 minutes ago, SomeguyfromTakomaPark said:

Can you link that site again.  I will bookmark this time.

This is the link to all the AI products.  The qpf/slp combo map is the 5th one down.

https://charts.ecmwf.int/?facets={"Product type"%3A["Experimental%3A AIFS"]%2C"Parameters"%3A[]%2C"Range"%3A[]%2C"Type"%3A[]}

[DDweatherman]

4 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

It had a run that was about 3-6” along or near 95 yesterday too. I think that’s likely close to their max solution.  If the wave ends up more amplified and the track shifts NW I think it has 8” potential for places further NW like MRG, HGR, MDT. Of course that’s dependent on them getting into the max band. I do think in general the further NW the snow ends up the more likely it is to be heavier. 

Get me .3” QPF and I’ll feel pretty good about 4-5” in this one

[jayyy]

6z euro was solid for the 95 corridor and we’re roughly 3 days out. Where the weenies at?!

[mitchnick]

7 minutes ago, jayyy said:

6z euro was solid for the 95 corridor and we’re roughly 3 days out. Where the weenies at?!

Remedial grammar classes. Lol 

[MillvilleWx]

I'm telling you guys, when the AI is this locked in, everyone should take note. It's not a true dynamical model that can sway with regular perturbations like a ECMWF/GFS/(Insert Model here), it's basically a really well programmed analog with a historical dataset that it references on each run. When it looks like a duck and quacks like a duck....