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1/19 - The Weekend Roulette Wheel Thing

DDweatherman

By DDweatherman,
in Mid Atlantic

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wxmvpete
wxmvpete

My heavy snow discussion tonight went into some of the model differences, the synoptic/mesoscale setup, and how the probabilistic snowfall totals and impact guidance looked as of tonight.  ...Mid

MillvilleWx
MillvilleWx

I'm telling you guys, when the AI is this locked in, everyone should take note. It's not a true dynamical model that can sway with regular perturbations like a ECMWF/GFS/(Insert Model here), it's basi

stormtracker
stormtracker

Interesting fact: it takes only 3 clicks to ban or delete an account.  Wild.  

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MillvilleWx

MillvilleWx

Posted
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Just catching up to what has transpired model wise today. It was a semi-lost day for me as I’ve been having some jaw issues from God knows what over the past several weeks. Went to orthodontist and they ruled out TMJ, so it’s off to the Dentist I go for whatever time they can take me next week. Been a long day of dealing with a flare up. Ugh 

Anywho, looking at guidance and there’s still two distinct camps for this one; a stronger surface reflection that delays the CAA regime and causes a sharp southern edge in the QPF distribution which negative feedbacks to lower snow totals until well NW of the fall line. The second option is the stronger Arctic boundary with less amplification of the surface reflection allowing for CAA regime to take shape with improving PBL as we step through the afternoon, a testament to the magnitude of the airmass that’s going to be making waves in these parts. 
 

The consensus I’m seeing is the over amplified cluster is losing steam with the GEM suite being the primary drivers for this scenario. The EC/GFS/NAMNest/GEFS/ECENS/EC AIGS ML output are in convergence mode with now only minor deviations in the thermal alignment/positioning, as well as the total QPF being depicted. 
 

Considering some solid 85H FGEN progs being depicted within the latest NWP iterations, it’s likely there will be some good mesoscale banding structures that will transpire during the height of the storm, and that will coincide with the bleeding arctic airmass leading to slight improvement of SLR’s (Snow-liquid ratios) even as we step into the afternoon. This is not a classic setup, but there have been multiple cases over the past 20-25 years of these types of events with good wave timing to take advantage of the advection paradigm while we get the better forcing intersecting at the same juncture.
 

My initial forecast has been for 3-6” w/ locally up to 8” for places along and NW of I-95 with a southern inflection around I-66. 2-5” forecast for southeast of there, including the DC metro with a max of 6” plausible within any areas that get multiple banding structures over the course of the event. I feel this is a good storm for places NW of the fall line with higher ratios between 10-12:1 to start ending closer to 14-16:1 at the very end of the storm with some locally higher SLR’s within those climo favored areas along Parrs Ridge from NW MoCo up through Mt Airy into Carroll County. This is the type of wave that tends to get these areas pretty well, so unless we see a significant deviation in surface low placement within the 15-21z window on Sunday, I think my initial thoughts will remain steadfast with potentially some minor adjustments pending QPF output as models fine tune as we move closer. Looks like a beautiful snow day incoming with playoff football to make it feel even more like deep winter.
 

I’ll try to chime in again as we get closer. Hopefully my mouth pain can be solved by next week. I’m tired of this -ish. Have a great night ^_^

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Maestrobjwa

Maestrobjwa

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16 minutes ago, MillvilleWx said:

Just catching up to what has transpired model wise today. It was a semi-lost day for me as I’ve been having some jaw issues from God knows what over the past several weeks. Went to orthodontist and they ruled out TMJ, so it’s off to the Dentist I go for whatever time they can take me next week. Been a long day of dealing with a flare up. Ugh 

Anywho, looking at guidance and there’s still two distinct camps for this one; a stronger surface reflection that delays the CAA regime and causes a sharp southern edge in the QPF distribution which negative feedbacks to lower snow totals until well NW of the fall line. The second option is the stronger Arctic boundary with less amplification of the surface reflection allowing for CAA regime to take shape with improving PBL as we step through the afternoon, a testament to the magnitude of the airmass that’s going to be making waves in these parts. 
 

The consensus I’m seeing is the over amplified cluster is losing steam with the GEM suite being the primary drivers for this scenario. The EC/GFS/NAMNest/GEFS/ECENS/EC AIGS ML output are in convergence mode with now only minor deviations in the thermal alignment/positioning, as well as the total QPF being depicted. 
 

Considering some solid 85H FGEN progs being depicted within the latest NWP iterations, it’s likely there will be some good mesoscale banding structures that will transpire during the height of the storm, and that will coincide with the bleeding arctic airmass leading to slight improvement of SLR’s (Snow-liquid ratios) even as we step into the afternoon. This is not a classic setup, but there have been multiple cases over the past 20-25 years of these types of events with good wave timing to take advantage of the advection paradigm while we get the better forcing intersecting at the same juncture.
 

My initial forecast has been for 3-6” w/ locally up to 8” for places along and NW of I-95 with a southern inflection around I-66. 2-5” forecast for southeast of there, including the DC metro with a max of 6” plausible within any areas that get multiple banding structures over the course of the event. I feel this is a good storm for places NW of the fall line with higher ratios between 10-12:1 to start ending closer to 14-16:1 at the very end of the storm with some locally higher SLR’s within those climo favored areas along Parrs Ridge from NW MoCo up through Mt Airy into Carroll County. This is the type of wave that tends to get these areas pretty well, so unless we see a significant deviation in surface low placement within the 15-21z window on Sunday, I think my initial thoughts will remain steadfast with potentially some minor adjustments pending QPF output as models fine tune as we move closer. Looks like a beautiful snow day incoming with playoff football to make it feel even more like deep winter.
 

I’ll try to chime in again as we get closer. Hopefully my mouth pain can be solved by next week. I’m tired of this -ish. Have a great night ^_^

Thanks for the write-up as always. Nice jawboning with ya :lol:

 

(sorry couldn't resist)

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