1/19 - The Weekend Roulette Wheel Thing

[stormtracker]

Just now, snowfan said:

Why would you post that bullshit?

He lives in a good spot on the RGEM

[Scraff]

I just got an alert on my phone. It’s an FFIW!? Fuckin Falling Iguna Warning! How the hell am I supposed to Jebwalk in that!?

 

Probably should put the drink down now…

[notvirga!]

I lived in a good spot for the rgem in 2021. It was only off by 45 inches. I will never again respect it 

[stormtracker]

1 minute ago, Scraff said:

I just got an alert on my phone. It’s an FFIW!? Fuckin Falling Iguna Warning! How the hell am I supposed to Jebwalk in that!?

 

Probably should put the drink down now…

When you flying out? I hope the next storm starts as soon as you are wheels up. 

[DDweatherman]

2 minutes ago, snowfan said:

Why would you post that bullshit?

Makes sense to just selectively post pieces of “guidance” 

[stormtracker]

Just now, DDweatherman said:

Makes sense to just selectively post pieces of “guidance” 

It bumped SE by like an ass hair.  I mean, I get it.  But the maple leafs are the only model that far NW.  

[DDweatherman]

The icon has really been juicing this up and it can be a drier model at times. The NW crew gets mashed but qpf almost doubled on 95. Could be the double maxima being shown 

[Scraff]

Just now, stormtracker said:

When you flying out? I hope the next storm starts as soon as you are wheels up.

Already in FL. Cruise is tomorrow. I hope you rain and rain hard. And it snows in Georgetown. 

[TSSN+]

3 minutes ago, stormtracker said:

He lives in a good spot on the RGEM

Or it’s an option just like the rest. I’d rather have the Nam or icon output. 

[winter_warlock]

4 minutes ago, snowfan said:

Why would you post that bullshit?

Cause he's in the snow  zone on that map lol

[TSSN+]

Just now, winter_warlock said:

Cause he's in the snow  zone on that map lol

Or I post every model? 

[Kevin Reilly]

1 minute ago, stormtracker said:

It bumped SE by like an ass hair.  I mean, I get it.  But the maple leafs are the only model that far NW.  

Doesn’t really make sense pretty progressive flow nothing can really amp up and bomb out too quickly cold press is real too easing everything on off to the east. 

[aldie 22]

1 minute ago, TSSN+ said:

Or I post every model? 

Did you post the icon?

[StormyClearweather]

ICON EPS is a touch juicier as well. Looks sort of similar to the Euro AI, but off by maybe .10 for most. 

[DDweatherman]

1 minute ago, aldie 22 said:

Did you post the icon?

He was texting me about it, but I don’t think he posted. It’s great for everyone if you ask me

[stormtracker]

4 minutes ago, TSSN+ said:

Or it’s an option just like the rest. I’d rather have the Nam or icon output. 

True.  I mean, I get it.  It's ok to be transparent.  If I were you, I'd be pulling for the RGEM too.   But it's on its own.  Either it is gonna score a serious coup or it's gonna fall flat.  I'd rather not have to rely on the R/GEM tho vs...everything else.

[TSSN+]

1 minute ago, aldie 22 said:

Did you post the icon?

People already posted it before I even loaded it. But here ya go 

[DDweatherman]

1 minute ago, stormtracker said:

True.  I mean, I get it.  It's ok to be transparent.  If I were you, I'd be pulling for the RGEM too.   But it's on its own.  Either it is gonna score a serious coup or it's gonna fall flat.  I'd rather not have to rely on the R/GEM tho vs...everything else.

I think the crew up here is all good with the AIFS, UK, Icon, and even the 3k and gfs are easy 4-6” events 

[pazzo83]

12 minutes ago, stormtracker said:

RGEM still on some bullshit.  looks slightly SE..but still not great

we need a no-confidence vote on the Canadian model suite

[Chris78]

Just now, DDweatherman said:

I think the crew up here is all good with the AIFS, UK, Icon, and even the 3k and gfs are easy 4-6” events 

Yep.

Screw the Euro.

[TSSN+]

1 minute ago, stormtracker said:

True.  I mean, I get it.  It's ok to be transparent.  If I were you, I'd be pulling for the RGEM too.   But it's on its own.  Either it is gonna score a serious coup or it's gonna fall flat.  I'd rather not have to rely on the R/GEM tho vs...everything else.

I don’t want the Rgem. Maybe if it was what it shows but like 75 miles south. Don’t want to be that close to the line. 

[winter_warlock]

Just now, pazzo83 said:

we need a no-confidence vote on the Canadian model suite

Agreed!!!

[Kevin Reilly]

There will not be any warm air coming off the Atlantic here is a picture of Townsend’s Inlet in Sea Isle City Cape May County NJ water temp 34f .  These are slushy waves breaking onto the beach. 

[pazzo83]

1 minute ago, Kevin Reilly said:

There will not be any warm air coming off the Atlantic here is a picture of Townsend’s Inlet in Sea Isle City Cape May County NJ water temp 34f 

not a great time to go down the shore

[stormtracker]

4 minutes ago, DDweatherman said:

I think the crew up here is all good with the AIFS, UK, Icon, and even the 3k and gfs are easy 4-6” events 

I'm not gonna lie and say that the R/GEM isn't annoying me, but I'm also not overly concerned at this point

[DDweatherman]

Can someone post icon kuchie? I’m enjoying beers before the varsity models show themselves

[DDweatherman]

Just now, stormtracker said:

I'm not gonna lie and say that the R/GEM isn't annoying me, but I'm also not overly concerned at this point

Eh, it’s only concerning because it’s been the rock. The other models look more like the Canadian suite than they did say 3 days ago, but we kinda figured they would. We’re talking 10+ degree sfc temp differences rgem vs gfs or euro

[Scarlet Pimpernel]

ICON somewhat juicier than it was earlier, it seems?  Just going by what I saw here on a snow clown map above.

[high risk]

1 minute ago, Kevin Reilly said:

There will not be any warm air coming off the Atlantic here is a picture of Townsend’s Inlet in Sea Isle City Cape May County NJ water temp 34f 

       That's awesome!    But this really isn't about pulling in mild air from the ocean.    It's a question of where the thermal boundary sets up at the start of the day and how quickly it moves southeast.   The snowiest models move it quickly away, while the other solutions keep it close by, and we lose some QPF to a mix, before the cold air finally wins out during the afternoon.

[Deck Pic]

1 minute ago, stormtracker said:

I'm not gonna lie and say that the R/GEM isn't annoying me, but I'm also not overly concerned at this point

We give the canadian too much credit.  I don't really consider it a varsity model.  It's something to chew on between the GFS and Euro