1/19 - The Weekend Roulette Wheel Thing

[LeesburgWx]

8 minutes ago, Ji said:

This is not even a storm. It’s like snow showers m. What a disaster

I don’t get it. Are you bi-polar? One second, your posts are reasonable and good. The next, they end up like this.

[WxUSAF]

Don’t like the 20mi wide screw zone over my yard but that would move around in reality. 

[Terpeast]

Euro has that dual band structure even with low qpf overall.  The NW band will have higher ratios and produce more snowfall than depicted on 10:1 ratio maps. 

[Scarlet Pimpernel]

11 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

2020 and 2023 would like to call and remind you want a disaster actually looks like 

Amen!  In 2022-23 I got literally 0.5" snow for the season that fell in the pre-dawn hours one day in early February, and it was gone before 10AM.  That's it.  Oh, and a bit of snow-TV later in February.  It was consistently warm all that winter.  That was truly a God-awful season.

[aldie 22]

7 minutes ago, LeesburgWx said:

I don’t get it. Are you bi-polar? One second, your posts are reasonable and good. The next, they end up like this.

He's Ji-polar

[Maestrobjwa]

17 minutes ago, NorthArlington101 said:

I think it’s really just showing that double-banding structure that some have alluded to. Kuchie gives more blue. 

Bruh why do snow maps do this to my house? Lol Ya see this? That's where I am--and why I never know which side I'll be on. I don't know whether the elevation change between my circle there and 5 mins north is the drastic or what, but that's insane!

[CAPE]

13 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

It’s a win. Because I’m 90% confident the euro is undergoing qpf, I’m more concerned about where the snowfall axis ends up and the euro has that right over us. We are the jack zone. It’s just low on qpf.  So it’s good on the thing I’m most concerned about. 

Its also more correctly depicting the cold air advection given the impressive nature of the Arctic front imo. That could translate to somewhat drier, but it typically does this and juices up closer to game time. Canadians are very likely out to lunch in underdoing the cold push, with the surface low too far NW.

[Warm Nose]

25 minutes ago, Ji said:

This is not even a storm. It’s like snow showers m. What a disaster

You must have been fun to parent as a child

[Maestrobjwa]

29 minutes ago, Ji said:

This is not even a storm. It’s like snow showers m. What a disaster

Bro...how much snow did you get on 1/6?

[CAPE]

26 minutes ago, Ji said:

This is not even a storm. It’s like snow showers m. What a disaster

Remember what you said- it's all about me. I'll gladly take it. Come to papa.

[TSSN+]

Euro looking like the Nam before the Nam juiced up lol. So many ens members with nothing or even weaker than op. I think it’s out to lunch. 

[BTRWx's Thanks Giving]

Where are our moderators?

[87storms]

Maybe already posted, but the afternoon LWX disco sums up the event well and indicates the Euro AI might be the better model to use for this event.

[Ji]

Bro...how much snow did you get on 1/6?

5.5 or 6. I was the worst in the area

[CAPE]

3 minutes ago, TSSN+ said:

Euro looking like the Nam before the Nam juiced up lol. So many ens members with nothing or even weaker than op. I think it’s out to lunch. 

Its actually called uncertainty. Probably won't see it on the GEFS because of the under dispersive nature of the model. Hug it if you love it. It might be correct.

[Ralph Wiggum]

3 hours ago, psuhoffman said:

I wouldn't put money on it, but I do think you have a fighting chance.  If it turns into a shoot out, your QB has been impressive and Detroits defense is vulnerable.  You lit us up a few weeks ago and our defense is significantly better than Detroit.  You could pull the upset if JD has a good game.  

Over under is way up there at 56.5 last i looked. The 'experts' are expecting a shootout. Could very well be an upset, would not be surprised.

[Warm Nose]

7 minutes ago, Ji said:

5.5 or 6. I was the worst in the area

[Ralph Wiggum]

51 minutes ago, Ji said:

This is not even a storm. It’s like snow showers m. What a disaster

We've spent a whole week tracking THIS shit? 

[WVclimo]

Once again those Kuchera numbers are giving my yard 17:1 ratios.  Hoping to do better than the 0.13” liquid the Euro is showing.

[Ralph Wiggum]

22 minutes ago, BTRWx's Thanks Giving said:

Where are our moderators?

At the roulette table

[psuhoffman]

11 minutes ago, CAPE said:

Its actually called uncertainty. Probably won't see it on the GEFS because of the under dispersive nature of the model. Hug it if you love it. It might be correct.

Usually the gefs has that issue. Right now it actually does have two camps but different from the eps. Gefs has a big hit camp like the op and a camp like the ggem way NW. eps wants none of that and is split between runs like the op and runs that have almost no wave at all like previous NAMs. 
 

I’ll borrow a line from Rocky IV when he said I see 3 of em out there and they told him hit the one in the middle. If you average all the extremes were in a good spot. 

[mitchnick]

18z AI looks very close to 12z, so I'd be guessing if I said more.

[IronTy]

JFC, pull it together people.  It's a solid 1-3" event followed by the best arctic blast in years.  

[Ji]

JFC, pull it together people.  It's a solid 1-3" event followed by the best arctic blast in years.  

1-3 is a low end clipper bro

[Terpeast]

Just now, Ji said:

1-3 is a low end clipper bro

Well at least won’t melt as soon as the backedge appears on radar because it’ll be cold. Bro. 

[Heisy]

18z AI looks very close to 12z, so I'd be guessing if I said more.

That thing is locked and loaded, it’s a good compromise. I like the Ukie as a good starting point as a forecast. I think someone around like Allentown - Reading region up here could see 6-10”


.

[mitchnick]

1 minute ago, Heisy said:

That thing is locked and loaded, it’s a good compromise. I like the Ukie as a good starting point as a forecast. I think someone around like Allentown - Reading region up here could see 6-10”


.

Probably right unless the Canadians are the Gretzky of the event.

[Solution Man]

1 hour ago, Ralph Wiggum said:

At the roulette table

Roulette table opens soon

[wtkidz]

7 minutes ago, Solution Man said:

Roulette table opens soon

Every model run

 

[clskinsfan]

0z HRRR starting to get a clue. Still bad. But not running the low up the Shenandoah Valley anymore.