1/19 - The Weekend Roulette Wheel Thing

[psuhoffman]

38 minutes ago, T. August said:

Gefs mean is pretty much identical to 12z. Still some god-awful interior misses.

It does have some rgem like members but it did improve marginally. Shifted the snowfall about 10-20 miles SE. it was a little better. 

[stormtracker]

Euro is runnin'.  So far steady...but not yet at the money panels.

[Ji]

It does have some rgem like members but it did improve marginally. Shifted the snowfall about 10-20 miles SE. it was a little better. 

I think the euro is too good to shift from a snowstorm to a rain storm is close to the event

[Ji]

Euro is runnin'.  So far steady...but not yet at the money panels.

Something has to be a tick something

[mitchnick]

Just now, Ji said:

I hope the euro is too good to shift from a snowstorm to a rain storm is close to the event

Fixed

[stormtracker]

Euro got nothing over us yet at 12z, but it's actually a smidge colder than 12z leading in

[psuhoffman]

2 minutes ago, Ji said:

Something has to be a tick something

You’re a tick annoying 

jk

[stormtracker]

Ok, bringing in the goods now.  No thermal issues...so far a hold...

[psuhoffman]

3 minutes ago, Ji said:

I think the euro is too good to shift from a snowstorm to a rain storm is close to the event

You trying to speak this into existence 

[stormtracker]

Nice run.  I'm not mad at it.   Looks pretty similar to 12z.  Not sure about QPF numbers, but should be close.

[stormtracker]

3 minutes ago, Ji said:

I think the euro is too good to shift from a snowstorm to a rain storm is close to the event

It's nothing like the Canadians

[Scarlet Pimpernel]

2 minutes ago, stormtracker said:

Euro got nothing over us yet at 12z, but it's actually a smidge colder than 12z leading in

Does it actually bring in the precip later than previously?  Not saying that's a bad thing, just wondering in terms of start time.

[NorthArlington101]

No Kuchera yet. Goalposts still seem very wide on this one. Tough forecast… don’t envy the pros. 
 

[psuhoffman]

4 minutes ago, Ji said:

Something has to be a tick something

It can’t be that different bc the h54 h5 and slp plots came out early and I was toggling w the last run and it’s almost identical. Impressively similar. Kinda like the gfs which was really close to its previous run. Precip can be really noisy and fluky though so I’m sure there’s some minor changes in that regard. 

[Scarlet Pimpernel]

Just now, NorthArlington101 said:

No Kuchera yet. Goalposts still seem very wide on this one. Tough forecast… don’t envy the pros. 
 

How's that compare to 12Z or earlier cycles?

[Maestrobjwa]

1 minute ago, Scarlet Pimpernel said:

Does it actually bring in the precip later than previously?  Not saying that's a bad thing, just wondering in terms of start time.

Yeah I'm trying to get a feel for the start time too for services and such.

[Imgoinhungry]

No Kuchera yet. Goalposts still seem very wide on this one. Tough forecast… don’t envy the pros. 
 

Oof. That is ugly.


.

[NorthArlington101]

1 minute ago, Scarlet Pimpernel said:

How's that compare to 12Z or earlier cycles?

A little drier and southeast but basically just noise. If the blues were closer in shade to grey nobody would care  

[psuhoffman]

2 minutes ago, NorthArlington101 said:

No Kuchera yet. Goalposts still seem very wide on this one. Tough forecast… don’t envy the pros. 
 

I’m sure Ji is satisfied with that 

[osfan24]

Euro is annoying. Juice up, baby!

[TSSN+]

I’ll stick with the euro ai 

[Ji]

Dry af

[NorthArlington101]

I think it’s really just showing that double-banding structure that some have alluded to. Kuchie gives more blue. 

[psuhoffman]

Just now, Ji said:

Dry af

It’s a win. Because I’m 90% confident the euro is undergoing qpf, I’m more concerned about where the snowfall axis ends up and the euro has that right over us. We are the jack zone. It’s just low on qpf.  So it’s good on the thing I’m most concerned about. 

[Ji]

I think it’s really just showing that double-banding structure that some have alluded to. Kuchie gives more blue. 

This is not even a storm. It’s like snow showers m. What a disaster

[NorthArlington101]

Just now, Ji said:

This is not even a storm. It’s like snow showers m. What a disaster

Every time it snows it’s worth it… the 0.5” I got yesterday was wondrous. Least you ain’t at risk of getting shut out in your location… and ya didn’t miss 1/6. I’ve still only seen like 1” of snow fall this year lol, a streak which may continue 

[psuhoffman]

1 minute ago, Ji said:

This is not even a storm. It’s like snow showers m. What a disaster

2020 and 2023 would like to call and remind you want a disaster actually looks like 

[TSSN+]

2 minutes ago, Ji said:

This is not even a storm. It’s like snow showers m. What a disaster

Go away 

[stormtracker]

2 minutes ago, Ji said:

This is not even a storm. It’s like snow showers m. What a disaster

I'll be enjoying my disaster.  You'll be ok

[SomeguyfromTakomaPark]

7 minutes ago, NorthArlington101 said:

I think it’s really just showing that double-banding structure that some have alluded to. Kuchie gives more blue. 

I’ve said it before and I’ll say it again.  That’s a perfect light event with upside to moderate.  No temp issues.  Followed by arctic.  Somebody get me my finest pen to sign that!!!