rjvanals Posted January 17 Share Posted January 17 Just now, stormtracker said: You'll be in Potomac for this one, won't you? Yep and worried for my backyard that this will turn into a Frederick/Carroll County special 1 minute ago, stormtracker said: You'll be in Potomac for this one, won't you? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SomeguyfromTakomaPark Posted January 17 Share Posted January 17 Just now, rjvanals said: Yep and worried for my backyard that this will turn into a Frederick/Carroll County special I think we’re going to get accumulating snow in dc metro. I don’t buy the RGEM/CMC complete shutout. I think it’s possible it trends away from us a little and we end up 1-2 but I don’t think we get shutout. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rjvanals Posted January 17 Share Posted January 17 3 minutes ago, SomeguyfromTakomaPark said: I think we’re going to get accumulating snow in dc metro. I don’t buy the RGEM/CMC complete shutout. I think it’s possible it trends away from us a little and we end up 1-2 but I don’t think we get shutout. I like the NAM not being amped at all especially since it’s usually over amped Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 17 Share Posted January 17 33 minutes ago, yoda said: FWIW, 18z UKIE shifted NW with the snow totals and track of the SLP It increased the snowfall in the NW periphery and tightened up the gradient some but it didn’t really shift NE. If you identify the center of the max snowfall and draw a line the axis is almost exactly the same. It’s a noise level change imo. 1 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 17 Share Posted January 17 38 minutes ago, T. August said: Gefs mean is pretty much identical to 12z. Still some god-awful interior misses. It does have some rgem like members but it did improve marginally. Shifted the snowfall about 10-20 miles SE. it was a little better. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted January 17 Share Posted January 17 Euro is runnin'. So far steady...but not yet at the money panels. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 17 Share Posted January 17 It does have some rgem like members but it did improve marginally. Shifted the snowfall about 10-20 miles SE. it was a little better. I think the euro is too good to shift from a snowstorm to a rain storm is close to the event 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 17 Share Posted January 17 Euro is runnin'. So far steady...but not yet at the money panels.Something has to be a tick something Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted January 17 Share Posted January 17 Just now, Ji said: I hope the euro is too good to shift from a snowstorm to a rain storm is close to the event Fixed Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted January 17 Share Posted January 17 Euro got nothing over us yet at 12z, but it's actually a smidge colder than 12z leading in 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 17 Share Posted January 17 2 minutes ago, Ji said: Something has to be a tick something You’re a tick annoying jk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted January 17 Share Posted January 17 Ok, bringing in the goods now. No thermal issues...so far a hold... 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 17 Share Posted January 17 3 minutes ago, Ji said: I think the euro is too good to shift from a snowstorm to a rain storm is close to the event You trying to speak this into existence 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted January 17 Share Posted January 17 Nice run. I'm not mad at it. Looks pretty similar to 12z. Not sure about QPF numbers, but should be close. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted January 17 Share Posted January 17 3 minutes ago, Ji said: I think the euro is too good to shift from a snowstorm to a rain storm is close to the event It's nothing like the Canadians 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scarlet Pimpernel Posted January 17 Share Posted January 17 2 minutes ago, stormtracker said: Euro got nothing over us yet at 12z, but it's actually a smidge colder than 12z leading in Does it actually bring in the precip later than previously? Not saying that's a bad thing, just wondering in terms of start time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthArlington101 Posted January 17 Share Posted January 17 No Kuchera yet. Goalposts still seem very wide on this one. Tough forecast… don’t envy the pros. 1 3 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 17 Share Posted January 17 4 minutes ago, Ji said: Something has to be a tick something It can’t be that different bc the h54 h5 and slp plots came out early and I was toggling w the last run and it’s almost identical. Impressively similar. Kinda like the gfs which was really close to its previous run. Precip can be really noisy and fluky though so I’m sure there’s some minor changes in that regard. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scarlet Pimpernel Posted January 17 Share Posted January 17 Just now, NorthArlington101 said: No Kuchera yet. Goalposts still seem very wide on this one. Tough forecast… don’t envy the pros. How's that compare to 12Z or earlier cycles? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Maestrobjwa Posted January 17 Share Posted January 17 1 minute ago, Scarlet Pimpernel said: Does it actually bring in the precip later than previously? Not saying that's a bad thing, just wondering in terms of start time. Yeah I'm trying to get a feel for the start time too for services and such. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Imgoinhungry Posted January 17 Share Posted January 17 No Kuchera yet. Goalposts still seem very wide on this one. Tough forecast… don’t envy the pros. Oof. That is ugly. . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthArlington101 Posted January 17 Share Posted January 17 1 minute ago, Scarlet Pimpernel said: How's that compare to 12Z or earlier cycles? A little drier and southeast but basically just noise. If the blues were closer in shade to grey nobody would care 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 17 Share Posted January 17 2 minutes ago, NorthArlington101 said: No Kuchera yet. Goalposts still seem very wide on this one. Tough forecast… don’t envy the pros. I’m sure Ji is satisfied with that 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
osfan24 Posted January 17 Share Posted January 17 Euro is annoying. Juice up, baby! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TSSN+ Posted January 17 Share Posted January 17 I’ll stick with the euro ai Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 17 Share Posted January 17 Dry af 1 3 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthArlington101 Posted January 17 Share Posted January 17 I think it’s really just showing that double-banding structure that some have alluded to. Kuchie gives more blue. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 17 Share Posted January 17 Just now, Ji said: Dry af It’s a win. Because I’m 90% confident the euro is undergoing qpf, I’m more concerned about where the snowfall axis ends up and the euro has that right over us. We are the jack zone. It’s just low on qpf. So it’s good on the thing I’m most concerned about. 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 17 Share Posted January 17 I think it’s really just showing that double-banding structure that some have alluded to. Kuchie gives more blue. This is not even a storm. It’s like snow showers m. What a disaster 2 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthArlington101 Posted January 17 Share Posted January 17 Just now, Ji said: This is not even a storm. It’s like snow showers m. What a disaster Every time it snows it’s worth it… the 0.5” I got yesterday was wondrous. Least you ain’t at risk of getting shut out in your location… and ya didn’t miss 1/6. I’ve still only seen like 1” of snow fall this year lol, a streak which may continue 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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