1/19 - The Weekend Roulette Wheel Thing

[rjvanals]

The cold air keeps getting slightly delayed each run if you toggle back which should be a bit of concern along i95

[stormtracker]

Looks like 4 to 6 ish.  Pull up the WB pretty maps

[T. August]

The gfs actually shifted SE it looks like?

[stormy]

Within 50 hrs. the NAM seems to hone in. Beyond 50 hrs. it is useless.

The 3 k NAM has me at 3.2" at 18z....................  0 before..................

[psuhoffman]

At 48 hours the gfs has the low in the same location and the same mslp (1002) along the NC VA border. And I mean exact to the mile same location. Crazy consistency run to run. 

[Deck Pic]

1 minute ago, rjvanals said:

The cold air keeps getting slightly delayed each run if you toggle back which should be a bit of concern along i95

This run looks potentially mixy until 7 or 8 am.  But the column is fine after that.

[psuhoffman]

1 minute ago, T. August said:

The gfs actually shifted SE it looks like?

Track is almost identical. Precip maybe 10 miles SE. but it def did not continue the NW trend which is what we’re all rooting stops.  

[psuhoffman]

Here 

tale your pick 

[rjvanals]

2 minutes ago, Deck Pic said:

This run looks potentially mixy until 7 or 8 am.  But the column is fine after that.

Yeah it eventually gets here but it’s been slowing down each run and we don’t usually do well w cold chasing precip 

[StormyClearweather]

1 minute ago, psuhoffman said:

Here 

tale your pick 

I'll add the Kuchera and 10:1, multiply by 2, and take that. Kthxbai. 

[osfan24]

FWIW, just watched Bernie Rayno’s video. He is a Euro guy but he said thinks the GFS has the right idea for this storm. Thinks CMC is too far west and Euro too weak.

He also mentioned that he thinks the midweek deal is a Virginia and south threat just due to the extreme cold air.

[Terpeast]

8 minutes ago, clskinsfan said:

One scenario i can see playing out is 2 precip maxes, one along the blue ridge NE into central maryland as the low gets going... and the other that starts E of DC into NYC once the coastal strengthens and 850 low closes off. 

Maybe the canadian models are latching onto the first precip max and extending it NE while leaving the S & E warmer and wetter, and the colder weaker more S/E solutions are conversely under-doing the NW precip max.

As much flak the GFS gets these days, it did pretty well in the short range <48 hr in the last storm IIRC. So now maybe we are starting to get those mesoscale details into better focus where the secondary NW max gets 3-6/4-8+ of powder while the other qpf band along DC-Balt-Philly-NYC gets 3-5" of wet snow.

As Chill would say, just spitballing.

[wxdude64]

5 minutes ago, StormyClearweather said:

I'll add the Kuchera and 10:1, multiply by 2, and take that. Kthxbai. 

Still would be the same here, lol. 

[MDScienceTeacher]

17 minutes ago, stormy said:

Within 50 hrs. the NAM seems to hone in. Beyond 50 hrs. it is useless.

The 3 k NAM has me at 3.2" at 18z....................  0 before..................

the last storm (Jan 6) it was spot on at 84 hours.

[MDScienceTeacher]

21 minutes ago, stormy said:

Within 50 hrs. the NAM seems to hone in. Beyond 50 hrs. it is useless.

The 3 k NAM has me at 3.2" at 18z....................  0 before..................

I am not saying it is right by any means, but if you are looking for ways to fail, the NAM does look a lot like the Euro Op.

[Maestrobjwa]

13 minutes ago, Terpeast said:

One scenario i can see playing out is 2 precip maxes, one along the blue ridge NE into central maryland as the low gets going... and the other that starts E of DC into NYC once the coastal strengthens and 850 low closes off. 

Maybe the canadian models are latching onto the first precip max and extending it NE while leaving the S & E warmer and wetter, and the colder weaker more S/E solutions are conversely under-doing the NW precip max.

As much flak the GFS gets these days, it did pretty well in the short range <48 hr in the last storm IIRC. So now maybe we are starting to get those mesoscale details into better focus where the secondary NW max gets 3-6/4-8+ of powder while the other qpf band along DC-Balt-Philly-NYC gets 3-5" of wet snow.

As Chill would say, just spitballing.

Not a fan of those scenarios for my yard...Baltimore city can sometimes get stuck between the two, smh

[Terpeast]

Just now, Maestrobjwa said:

Not a fan of those scenarios for my yard...Baltimore city can sometimes get stuck between the two, smh

if it makes you feel any better, I might be the one who gets stuck between the two. Especially if the storm shifts more NW than the GFS/NAM are saying

[T. August]

Gefs mean is pretty much identical to 12z. Still some god-awful interior misses.

[Interstate]

31 minutes ago, rjvanals said:

The cold air keeps getting slightly delayed each run if you toggle back which should be a bit of concern along i95

This is my fear. Models always over do the speed of cold air 

[yoda]

FWIW, 18z UKIE shifted NW with the snow totals and track of the SLP 

[rjvanals]

3 minutes ago, yoda said:

FWIW, 18z UKIE shifted NW with the snow totals and track of the SLP 

Yeah it’s I-95 and west special puts more credence to the RGEM idea 

[yoda]

4 minutes ago, yoda said:

FWIW, 18z UKIE shifted NW with the snow totals and track of the SLP 

18z

 

12z

 

[stormy]

25 minutes ago, MDScienceTeacher said:

the last storm (Jan 6) it was spot on at 84 hours.

We'll see

[stormtracker]

10 minutes ago, rjvanals said:

Yeah it’s I-95 and west special puts more credence to the RGEM idea 

You'll be in Potomac for this one, won't you?

[stormy]

43 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

Here 

tale your pick 

Either one is reasonable

[stormtracker]

Nobody's stealing my joy!  I'm cool with 2" that will turn into a glacier. 

[rjvanals]

Just now, stormtracker said:

You'll be in Potomac for this one, won't you?

Yep and worried for my backyard that this will turn into a Frederick/Carroll County special 

 

1 minute ago, stormtracker said:

You'll be in Potomac for this one, won't you?

 

[SomeguyfromTakomaPark]

Just now, rjvanals said:

Yep and worried for my backyard that this will turn into a Frederick/Carroll County special 

 

 

I think we’re going to get accumulating snow in dc metro.  I don’t buy the RGEM/CMC complete shutout.  I think it’s possible it trends away from us a little and we end up 1-2 but I don’t think we get shutout. 

[rjvanals]

3 minutes ago, SomeguyfromTakomaPark said:

I think we’re going to get accumulating snow in dc metro.  I don’t buy the RGEM/CMC complete shutout.  I think it’s possible it trends away from us a little and we end up 1-2 but I don’t think we get shutout. 

I like the NAM not being amped at all especially since it’s usually over amped 

[psuhoffman]

33 minutes ago, yoda said:

FWIW, 18z UKIE shifted NW with the snow totals and track of the SLP 

It increased the snowfall in the NW periphery and tightened up the gradient some but it didn’t really shift NE. If you identify the center of the max snowfall and draw a line the axis is almost exactly the same.    It’s a noise level change imo.